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Old 02-20-2012, 03:54 PM   #1
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20/40 postflop decision

Standard 20/40 game at bay 101. I have been fairly active and have showdown a couple of non premium hands and have a pretty loose image. Villian (Utg) is new to the table and this is maybe his 4th or 5th hand.

Utg Limps and everybody folds to me. I raise QQ in the CO. Sb calls. Utg Calls


Sb leads. Utg calls. I raise. Sb 3 bets. Utg now Caps. Hero should??

With this line is Utg's range sets? 10's, J's or the occasional 97 suited?

I hate calling but I am not sure folding is correct either.

Any information is always appreciated.
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Old 02-20-2012, 03:58 PM   #2
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

Not folding just yet.

Weird hand.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:23 PM   #3
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

Against someone straightforward you're probably up against a set. You don't know anything about this villain though, so I'm calling down barring any big action/terrible turns and rivers.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:25 PM   #4
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

This seems like a reluctant call and evaluate the turn card and action. You are getting a locked in 8.5:1 on your call I beleive (4 bet cap there, right?) and in the very worst of situations you have 2 outs to the nuts on the turn against someone else's set, with very poor odds to call now but huge implied odds if you hit and an opponent holds a set. If you knew for sure that one of the two villains holds a set then it would be ok to fold. However, if you are up against 2 pair and a draw, you have 5 outs on the turn and 8 on the river if the turn card does not complete the draw. You are probably not ahead at the moment, but it is not impossible either.

UTG seems horrendous based on what little we know about him (limp UTG and backraise). He could very well have limped 22, 77, 97 suited or not, A9 or K9, some other suited nines, or even 10-8. He is not aware of your image, so I'm guessing his play is based primarily on the strength of his holdings and would guess that he is weighted towards a stronger made hand but that 10-8 is also a possible holding. There is some small chance he is just a maniac too and capped without good reason.

If you call, the turn action becomes very important. Either SB will remain the aggressor and you can fold to a bet and raise by BB. If SB checks and BB checks, this smells fishy and I would actually value check almost any turn card, although I am not sure that would be the best play. Others might disagree? Toughest situation is if SB checks and BB bets, then I'd need more info on how the SB plays and what the turn card is.
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Old 02-20-2012, 04:43 PM   #5
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

Board is really dry. Do we think SB called pf with T8 and is jamming with pretty much the only draw?

UTG acted passively and then aggressively when the action came around again. That, in LOLive games, can be a sign of a monster, e.g. a flopped set. Then again, they might have a smallish pocket pair or maybe T9 and are spite-capping. And SB might have a hand like JJ or A9 and is jamming because "They" (i.e. you) "never have it on the flop."

I think we have to call here, especially given that the action is capped, but we should watch out on the turn; I don't want to pay multiple bets there -- unless we spike a Q, in which case the sky's the limit.
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Old 02-20-2012, 05:55 PM   #6
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

don't fold
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Old 02-20-2012, 08:39 PM   #7
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

Thanks for all of the input so far. If we call the flop what do we do if we dont improve and a blank (say a 3) falls on the turn.

If sb leads and utg raises I think it is a fold but what do we do if sb checks and utg raises. I would hate to be caught in the middle if sb decides to check raise.

It feels like calling the flop to fold the turn is a waste of 2 little bets as there is little to no chance of the turn being checked through.

Or if only one bet goes in on the turn what are we doing on a safe river. Are we calling down against 2 villians?
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Old 02-20-2012, 09:32 PM   #8
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

SB check and BB bet is definitely the toughest spot and very likely. I would expect it reasonably often, because if SB checks, BB probably bets 100% of his range. Is it a raise or fold spot? I think so but am not sure. Both seem flawed, and calling does too. I think this is an interesting spot for sure. What do the 5000+ post folks think?
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Old 02-20-2012, 09:34 PM   #9
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

There are all sorts of gutter-over (JT, J8), and OESD combinations (T8, 86) that you are ahead and two pair combos you have outs against, so you cannot fold. Live limps UTG do contain pairs, but usually not as high as 99, all these hands will whip-saw, especially the combos that include three flushes.
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Old 02-21-2012, 09:48 AM   #10
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Re: 20/40 postflop decision

i wouldnt fold here....
UTG prob has a pair under ur Qs
the sb is scary here as well tho,dont discount their 3bet??
sb range more likely to have hands that beat u now,while UTGs range
has more overpp that are under ur QQ and drawing hands... is offline   Reply With Quote


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