Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude
I'm actually shocked at the number of live players I talk to, both people I know and people on 2+2 and other poker fora, who don't realize just how many hands you need to have a statistically significant sample in live poker and how long it takes to play that many hands. Remember, the typical online guideline was 15,000 to 20,000 hands. At 40 hands an hour, that's between 375 and 500 hours. Full time grinders get to that point in 3 months or so; recreational players may not get there for a couple of years. And that's the MINIMUM statistically significant sample. Online playing 1/2 and 2/4, I remember upswings and downswings playing out over 20,000 or more hands.
And of course, the higher limits you play, the greater the swings.
This hasn't been a big issue in this thread but I'm a nit so I'm going to call it out anyway. First of all, the online guideline wasn't 15-20k, it was like 150-200k. Secondly, online guidelines and live guidelines are hugely different because of the SD/WR ratios possible. 15-20k hands as statistically significant sample sizes only happen with the highest of winrates and lowest of standard deviations - like the kind you're able to generate at 20/40 live or 2c/4c online. When you look at 2/4 or 3/6 OL, you're looking at pretty small winrates for FR, and pretty large standard deviations for 6-max / HU.
It's always been the case that on a per-hand basis, live converges faster than online. But online, hands per hour dramatically increases, so a live pro who needs 20k hands and an online pro who needs 200k hands may have the same length of downswing on a per-time basis.
Yes, you will probably need several months as a live pro or several years as a recreational player to prove that you're a winner. No, the rationale for that isn't derived from a comparison to online play.