[QUOTE=mongidig;54637985]
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This is interesting because I wouldn't think twice about c betting here. I think we need more information regarding what does bad semi reg mean. How might this read impact the agro TAG's pre flop decision? How loose are the players to the left of the TAG?
Well clearly the first coldcall is wrong by mp, but he still has lots of equity assuming he plays somewhat logically preflop. This opens the door for button to play lots of now strong drawing hands correctly.
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I think you ask good questions....I would defer to you regarding mathematical based decisions. However, I would think you would want some Ace high hands in your C betting range here and this seems to be a great spot to continue.
I don't follow the logic behind wanting Ace high no draw hands in my cbetting range. If a hand is a value bet, the only condition is that betting is more profitable than checking, and this condition is dependent on unimproved showdown value and draw value.
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I would add....How much does c betting and perhaps betting the turn improve our chances of winning this hand?
I think it decreases the probability of us winning the hand.
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How many streets of value should we expect to get UIP?
Just the flop imo.
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How will checking impact possible folding mistakes?
checking is always profitable relative to folding, betting is not. Your question hints that you think it's harder to play the turn and river after checking the flop, but I think that the opposite is true. More specifically, I think the decisions after checking the flop, if considered as a whole, are more profitable(these decision trees begin with zero investment vs widest possible ranges given preflop action) than the decisions after betting the flop(minimum 1 small bet invested vs now stronger ranges).