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Old 07-24-2017, 07:54 PM   #26
bitterbeer
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I think you have to call in both instances. Pot is big enough and any pair on the board should be good.
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Old 07-24-2017, 09:10 PM   #27
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

my plan on both is to:

(a) call the turn
(b) fold UI
(c) raise a river 4; call the river if it is a 5/6/7; probably call the river if it is an 8
(d) bet board pairing rivers if checked to

Last edited by asmitty; 07-24-2017 at 09:17 PM.
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Old 07-26-2017, 03:37 AM   #28
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Hoped this would get more responses, especially to this part. Anyone else want to chime in? Especially after really thinking about the ranges of both villains.
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Old 07-26-2017, 04:03 AM   #29
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I think you should go back and fold the flop. But I do think flop is far more interesting, on the turn you just have to get there and hope you aren't drawing dead
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Old 07-26-2017, 04:49 AM   #30
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I think hero should fold the flop too, but I was actually V1.

I do think turn is very interesting if you think about the two possibilities.
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Old 07-26-2017, 03:53 PM   #31
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Bad Beat Story parading as a strategy post?
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Old 07-26-2017, 04:27 PM   #32
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Quote:
Originally Posted by Barry View Post
Bad Beat Story parading as a strategy post?
No, I thought the flop call was bad but discussed it with hero and was wondering what others thought of it. And I thought this turn spot with the different possibilities was really interesting. Was hoping for a few more people's input before saying why though.
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Old 07-27-2017, 01:06 AM   #33
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

How is the flop call bad? We are getting 8:1 on a flop call and if a red 3 hits the turn we will usually win a big pot. If we hit a set on the turn we will also have enough equity to continue given the size of the pot and if the board pairs we will usually win a monster pot.

When we have equity in large pots we shouldn't be folding often. I feel we have at least 12.33% equity OTF and should be seeing a turn card. If the turn is the Kc we fold, if its a 4 or 3 we continue putting money into the pot.
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Old 07-27-2017, 01:44 AM   #34
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

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Originally Posted by 6MaxLHE View Post
How is the flop call bad? We are getting 8:1 on a flop call and if a red 3 hits the turn we will usually win a big pot. If we hit a set on the turn we will also have enough equity to continue given the size of the pot and if the board pairs we will usually win a monster pot.
Mostly because it is not usually the case that either a red 3 or a 4 is good for you. Either one or the other is often good for you, but usually not both, and you have no way to know which one. Plus you are nowhere near closing the action, having terrible relative position to the flop raiser.

But I really want someone to think hard about the turn ranges and the action that should be taken in the two possible situations I gave,
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Old 07-27-2017, 01:49 AM   #35
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I continue to think that until someone analyzes the actual ranges of the opponents who have already acted, blanket statements about the flop call being "good" or "bad" have very little to back them up. The flop is a Stove problem.
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Old 07-27-2017, 01:56 AM   #36
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
Continuing the hand, and on to what I think is the most interesting part:

...Hero calls the turn bet.

V2 in BB raises. It folds around to V1, who:

A: 3-bets. Hero...?

B: calls. Hero...?
Fold in A
Call in B
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Old 07-27-2017, 01:57 AM   #37
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I continue to think that until someone analyzes the actual ranges of the opponents who have already acted, blanket statements about the flop call being "good" or "bad" have very little to back them up. The flop is a Stove problem.
I agree
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Old 07-27-2017, 01:58 AM   #38
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
I continue to think that until someone analyzes the actual ranges of the opponents who have already acted, blanket statements about the flop call being "good" or "bad" have very little to back them up. The flop is a Stove problem.
Unfortunately, it would be pretty much impossible to give a range for the other players who called the flop; they are all very loose preflop and almost as loose with their flop calls. I don't know how to do a multiway stove analysis with wide ranges. But I think it's fair to say that at least one or two of them have some kind of pair or reasonable draw. And any reasonable draws in the hands of the other players really hurt hero's equity.
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Old 07-27-2017, 02:00 AM   #39
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp View Post
Fold in A
Call in B
Alright, someone finally stuck his neck out and answered the way I wanted him to. Unfortunately, both your answers are wrong! This is why the turn spot is so interesting.
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Old 07-27-2017, 02:20 AM   #40
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Most people just think oh I can't call the flop or turn because of RIO. When RIO really only punishes you in BB games. I wouldn't fold the flop because even if we only have 3 outs we still have more than 12% equity and will extract more bets on the turn and river when we improve. The only hand we truly fear is 89.

And I am never folding the turn, even if it is capped to me because 1) the pot is huge, 2) we have a set, and 3) the cost of losing 2 BB on the river to a higher boat is outweighed by the monster pot we will win on the river if our hand is good.

Yes I understand RIO is important in LHE, and I understand that we don't have the best hand. But folding marginal hands that have enough equity to continue in monster pots is IMO one of the biggest mistakes you can make as a mid-limit hold'em player.
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Old 07-27-2017, 02:33 AM   #41
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I think you very rarely will have as many as 3 outs here; the 2 red threes are usually your best shot, and if you hit one on the turn, there are usually still a lot of outs against you on the river, so even those two outs have to be discounted. A four is usually also no good, just giving you a different draw (and killing your straight draw), so you won't be "extracting" any bets then, you will be paying them hoping to hit the river.

I would give you on average fewer than two outs on the flop, and you're not closing the action, it could easily be raised again, cutting your odds further.
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Old 07-27-2017, 06:08 PM   #42
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
Alright, someone finally stuck his neck out and answered the way I wanted him to. Unfortunately, both your answers are wrong! This is why the turn spot is so interesting.
That's great.
Why ?
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Old 07-27-2017, 07:14 PM   #43
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

V1 3 bets, should be a straight - call with the set.

V1 calls, must figure V2 for straight and has top two or set - fold the one-outer.
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Old 07-27-2017, 07:21 PM   #44
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Quote:
Originally Posted by e_holle View Post
V1 3 bets, should be a straight - call with the set.

V1 calls, must figure V2 for straight and has top two or set - fold the one-outer.
So let me get this right .
A nit 3-bet we should call 2 cold with a set .
A nit call , we should fold a set with a redraw to a full house for 1 bet

I am totally lost here
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Old 07-27-2017, 07:29 PM   #45
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Quote:
Originally Posted by e_holle View Post
V1 3 bets, should be a straight - call with the set.

V1 calls, must figure V2 for straight and has top two or set - fold the one-outer.
This is correct, you have to think about the ranges.

V2 almost certainly has a straight here, or at least that would be what a reasonably cautious player (V1, ie me) who doesn't know V2 well, would have to think. As actually played, V1 raised the turn, and hero was correct in calling the 2 more bets cold, because he was almost certainly up against two straights.

If V1 had just called the turn, he would most likely have a bigger set, with maybe the one combo of top two pair with the open ended straight flush draw. So V1 would have one combo that gives hero 4 outs, and nine combos against which he has only the singe out to quads. So hero has only 1.1 weighted outs, and should not even call for the one more bet (plus he still isn't closing the action).

At game speed it would be tough to make the fold, but I think it would be undoubtedly correct. I just found this spot very interesting, because how many times would you be happy to call for 2 bets cold, but fold for 1 bet? Not often, but this is the spot.
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Old 07-27-2017, 08:14 PM   #46
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

So by only calling the turn, v1 cannot have 1 card straight for example combine with a pair or draws ?
Scared of the top 2 card straight ?

Great taking into account vilain range but pot odds should be take into account as well.
Sometimes the odds just dictate the play imo.
Here it would be like what 18-1 if v1 only calls ?
I am calling ...

Huge pot is not the time to fold set when it cost only 1 bet imo

Last edited by Montrealcorp; 07-27-2017 at 08:26 PM.
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Old 07-27-2017, 08:28 PM   #47
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Quote:
Originally Posted by Montrealcorp View Post
So by only calling the turn, v1 cannot have 1 card straight for example combine with a pair or draws ?
Scared of the top 2 card straight ?

Great taking into account vilain range but pot odds should be take into account as well.
Sometimes the odds just dictate the play imo.
Here it would be like what 18-1 if v1 only calls ?
I am calling ...
Nope, V1 would have reraised with even the top one card straight and could not have had the bottom one card straight. I know because I was V1, but it makes sense anyway. I don't think V2 could have had the top straight the way it was played, and even if I knew I was chopping, I would reraise to charge the draws of hero.

Pot odds are very important. But even 18-1 odds no good if you have one out...
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Old 07-27-2017, 08:32 PM   #48
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Well if you hit you get IO on the river ...
Just for fun, if 44 is too weak for a bluff catch for 1 bet on the turn , what would be your worst hand of just calling and not raising for value ?
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Old 07-27-2017, 08:41 PM   #49
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Even 2 bets of implied odds doesn't make it worth the 43-1 shot of hitting quads.

I don't think you should have any bluff catchers in a pot like this; there is no way both V1 and V2 are bluffing, or even semi-bluffing. Hero certainly should be calling with a lot of flush draw combinations (that is what I thought he had the whole time).

Last edited by chillrob; 07-27-2017 at 08:51 PM.
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Old 07-27-2017, 10:24 PM   #50
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

All right wrong wording.
Weakest hand you call here while not raisong
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