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Old 07-19-2017, 03:32 PM   #1
chillrob
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20/40 44 in the land of thin value

The following hand is based on an actual hand I played, but the perspective and a few of the details have been changed.

20/40 game filled with bad, mostly loose regulars, except 2 guest players who are the villains in the hand.

V1 is a middle aged white professional, at this casino as a visitor, but I still know his game pretty well. He plays well, but tends to be a bit nitty so misses some value, especially in lineups like this one, and is playing even more conservative than usual because he doesn't know the players well and has been running a little bad today.

V2 is a youngish Asian, recently arrived at the game - unknown, but I have no reason to suspect he is good.

EP player who has been on a heater open raises. Two very loose players cold call. V1 calls in HJ. Cutoff calls. I call on the button with 44. V2 calls in BB and we see the flop 7 handed.

567

V2 checks, opener bets. Both loose players call. V1 raises. Cutoff folds. I...
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Old 07-19-2017, 04:13 PM   #2
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

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Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
The following hand is based on an actual hand I played, but the perspective and a few of the details have been changed.

20/40 game filled with bad, mostly loose regulars, except 2 guest players who are the villains in the hand.

V1 is a middle aged white professional, at this casino as a visitor, but I still know his game pretty well. He plays well, but tends to be a bit nitty so misses some value, especially in lineups like this one, and is playing even more conservative than usual because he doesn't know the players well and has been running a little bad today.

V2 is a youngish Asian, recently arrived at the game - unknown, but I have no reason to suspect he is good.

EP player who has been on a heater open raises. Two very loose players cold call. V1 calls in HJ. Cutoff calls. I call on the button with 44. V2 calls in BB and we see the flop 7 handed.

567

V2 checks, opener bets. Both loose players call. V1 raises. Cutoff folds. I...
I would fold. You aren't closing the action and your draws are weak/have some serious RIO.
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Old 07-19-2017, 04:14 PM   #3
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

In a 15 SB pot in position, I think I would call 2 bets getting 7.5 : 1 to hit my non club 3's which are most likely good. I would discount the 3♧ and the dirty 4's and 8's and hope for the best.

I would reassess after the turn came.

(Plus this is an LC game right...outside of V1, you might have the best hand) 😀

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Old 07-19-2017, 05:15 PM   #4
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Think easy call, even more so we have a club .
Turn would be more interesting ?
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Old 07-19-2017, 05:22 PM   #5
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

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Think easy call, even more so we have a club .
Turn would be more interesting ?
Why do you think having a club matters much? Plan to call a bet if a third club comes on the turn and then win this pot with a one-card 4 high flush?
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Old 07-19-2017, 05:28 PM   #6
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

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In a 15 SB pot in position, I think I would call 2 bets getting 7.5 : 1 to hit my non club 3's which are most likely good. I would discount the 3♧ and the dirty 4's and 8's and hope for the best.

I would reassess after the turn came.

(Plus this is an LC game right...outside of V1, you might have the best hand) 😀

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Whoops misread the OP...17 SB pot and I'm getting 8.5 : 1...yeah, I'm calling here

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Old 07-19-2017, 05:32 PM   #7
Montrealcorp
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

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Why do you think having a club matters much? Plan to call a bet if a third club comes on the turn and then win this pot with a one-card 4 high flush?
Well , less club to a flush against our hands because we have 1.
It is a very minor issue but gets a bit more relevant when we add that another 4 that gives us a set we don't complete a flush .
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Old 07-19-2017, 05:48 PM   #8
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Call getting 8.5 : 1 all day, knowing turn will likely be tricky.


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Old 07-19-2017, 05:49 PM   #9
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Pretty easy fold I think
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Old 07-19-2017, 05:58 PM   #10
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

You have at most six outs, there will be redraws against those outs, and the action is not closed.
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Old 07-19-2017, 07:14 PM   #11
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I really hate spots like this where you can call 2, get there and still be no good. I tend to fold here. If that 7 was a 3 it would change so much.
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Old 07-19-2017, 08:22 PM   #12
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I would call, although I think it's close and very marginal.
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Old 07-19-2017, 08:49 PM   #13
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

The 3's a decent out, so I'd probably call getting north of 11 to 1. I'd fold as played getting 9 1/2 to 1 or so.

This looks like a great hand to put into equilab / pokerstove, though. See how much equity we really have.
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Old 07-19-2017, 10:00 PM   #14
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.10.1.1

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 73.5% 72.3% 2.44% {77-55, 98s, 86s+, 75s+, 65s}
Player 2: 26.5% 25.3% 2.44% [4c4s]

Board: [5h 6c 7c ? ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}

Monte Carlo Simulation: 500000 trials

It's going to be pretty difficult to quantify the ranges of the rest of the players, so I just did Hero vs. V1.
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Old 07-19-2017, 10:12 PM   #15
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

When you put in something like 75s+, I think maybe that includes suited gappers of any suit, things like KhJh. If so, that would be way off.
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Old 07-20-2017, 12:21 AM   #16
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Nope. That's not how it works.

77-55, 98s, 86s, 87s, 75s, 76s, 65s. This is the range I used. Seems silly that I would assume KJs is in there?
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Old 07-20-2017, 01:19 AM   #17
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

OK, I misunderstood how that worked. But I don't think the HU equity analysis is useful in a 7 way pot. Especially because it includes a lot of equity from 1 card flushes, which will not be good in a multuway pot. And V1's range does not include 86s or 75s. It probably does include 99 and 88, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac5c.
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Old 07-20-2017, 04:52 PM   #18
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

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OK, I misunderstood how that worked. But I don't think the HU equity analysis is useful in a 7 way pot.
Yeah, when I said stove it, I meant against the perceived ranges of at least the guys who have already committed money on the flop. We basically need to determine how clean our outs are, and that's gonna tell us a lot.
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Old 07-22-2017, 04:27 AM   #19
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Alright, hero makes a thin call. V2 in BB calls. Opening raiser calls, as do the two loose callers.

Turn is the 4

checks to V1, who bets. His range is now sets, straights, and, let's say, 76 for top two pair and the open ended straight flush draw. He would check his other two pair hands and club flush draws here.

Hero...
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Old 07-22-2017, 05:26 AM   #20
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Call turn and depending on the river either raise or call.
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Old 07-22-2017, 08:45 AM   #21
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Fold on the flop. You don't even have 3 outs that you can fully rely on, and you're only getting 8.5 to 1. You need about, I'm thinking 12-to-1 to call.

You also never are able to get full value out of your hand no matter what comes.
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Old 07-22-2017, 02:43 PM   #22
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Call turn and ideally make a boat or quads.
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Old 07-22-2017, 08:50 PM   #23
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I'd fold on the flop. what dd said
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Old 07-23-2017, 06:29 AM   #24
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

I'd fold flop as based on explanation by asimitty and leavesoliberty as some of the reasons to fold flop. Additionally, imagine advice by BK and DD in this situation as being closest to optimal.

On turn as played, not closing action, in real time I probably call but fold might correct even when giving v2 very wide range as an unknown and based on narrow range assigned to v1 based on your reads.
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Old 07-24-2017, 06:42 PM   #25
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Re: 20/40 44 in the land of thin value

Continuing the hand, and on to what I think is the most interesting part:

...Hero calls the turn bet.

V2 in BB raises. It folds around to V1, who:

A: 3-bets. Hero...?

B: calls. Hero...?
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