Value Bet this River? - Mid to High Stakes Shorthanded Poker

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Value Bet this River?

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11-21-2008 , 06:49 PM

maka2184

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,537

AP 10/20 4 Handed

Villan is LAGTAG reg BILLYBEANE 38/28/2.3 over 5300 hands. His went to SD is 34% but I've played with him quite a bit 3-4 handed and he showdowns more then the stats suggests.

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) HERO is UTG with 8

HERO raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 6

(4.5SB, 2 players)
BB checks, HERO bets, BB raises, HERO calls.

Turn: K

(4.25BB, 2 players)
BB bets, HERO calls.

River: 9

(6.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, HERO bets, BB calls.

Results:
Final pot: 8.25BB

11-22-2008 , 10:33 PM

lippy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 8,323

yes

11-22-2008 , 11:33 PM

milesdyson

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 23,856

no, don't value bet. he'll show up with a ten here enough. seen it myself. make the river a 2-5 or a 7 and i'd bet it.

11-23-2008 , 01:43 AM

JacksonTens

banned

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,666

I'd send one out.

JT

11-23-2008 , 09:46 PM

Raist0000

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 520

bet for sure. if he has a ten here he sucks

11-24-2008 , 12:46 PM

JDalla

Total Boar

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 15,542

a lagtag reg shouldn't be checking a ten here. If he is make a note and proceed to exploit him in future hands.

11-24-2008 , 01:02 PM

kiddo

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 3,047

Quote:

Originally Posted by maka2184

AP 10/20 4 Handed

Villan is LAGTAG reg BILLYBEANE 38/28/2.3 over 5300 hands. His went to SD is 34% but I've played with him quite a bit 3-4 handed and he showdowns more then the stats suggests.

I have a question about this. If u are very aggressive postflop u will on average make people fold more. Will u then get a lower went to SD?

11-24-2008 , 03:28 PM

Tryptamean

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 9,844

i would be most concerned that flopped gutters paired that 9. I'd discount Tx cuz i expect it VB, and i'd discount a monster going for a c/r because your hand looks like Ax or something weak. I think he will be c/f'ing a lot of missed draws because he doesn't expect you to call down Ace hi now the the 9 came?

seems thin, but probably fine since he'll have 6x or something dumb often enough and you seldom walk into a trap (or sick bluff) c/r...

11-24-2008 , 08:11 PM

DeathDonkey

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 12,913

Damn Trypt beat me to it, he is way more likely to have 9x here than Tx but I think its still a good thin bet.

11-25-2008 , 07:01 AM

#10

Raist0000

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 520

If he has 9x he is probably betting it for value

11-28-2008 , 01:45 PM

#11

Black Hat

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 2,927

Quote:

Originally Posted by kiddo

I have a question about this. If u are very aggressive postflop u will on average make people fold more. Will u then get a lower went to SD?

Also realize that someone who plays a lot hands will on average have a lesser percentage of showdownable stuff.

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