Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Science, Math, and Philosophy Discussions regarding science, math, and/or philosophy.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-01-2020, 03:28 PM   #26
Zeno
Le Misanthrope
 
Zeno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 18,895
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

The amount of gibberish posted, and the human scum that post it, need and deserve deletion. You can only swim through so much garbage. A path must be cleared. If you have any questions PM a Moderator.
Zeno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 03:47 PM   #27
Ryanb9
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Ryanb9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: NEVA!
Posts: 7,241
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil Ferguson View Post
I think this is still a viable situation but could be tricky at this point, I'm going to run this through my models.
Models are of little use when you get too far from the data and events on which they are based. We have no history of ever destroying an area with an infected disease (like the bomb they drop in the beginning of the movie Outbreak). Because of this, I get the feeling you were joking with this post? If you weren't, can you explain in more detail what you are talking about?
Ryanb9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 04:09 PM   #28
Zeno
Le Misanthrope
 
Zeno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 18,895
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Food for thought:

event/Hong-Kong-flu-of-1968

From above link:

1968 flu pandemic, also called Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968 or Hong Kong flu of 1968, global outbreak of influenza that originated in China in July 1968 and lasted until 1969–70. The outbreak was the third influenza pandemic to occur in the 20th century; it followed the 1957 flu pandemic and the influenza pandemic of 1918–19. The 1968 flu pandemic resulted in an estimated one million to four million deaths, far fewer than the 1918–19 pandemic, which caused between 25 million and 50 million deaths.

*******************

In light of how much fear and frenzy and economic turmoil the present pandemic is causing; how much is self-inflicted? In other words is the "cure" worse than just a nominal approach that would cause much less disruption but cause more deaths and illness.



From above link:

i/Hong_Kong_flu

The same virus returned the following years: a year later, in late 1969 and early 1970, and in 1972. The CDC currently estimates that, in total, the virus killed 1 million people worldwide and around 100,000 people in the U.S.

This is far more than currently for the corona virus - the numbers will amp upward for a time, but my main question still stands. An aside on the prevalence of the fear factor and general knowledge that how the human herd responses to plagues is actually well known. Exacerbating fear and the general madness of crowds is somewhat self defeating. Of course this depends on your agenda. And that leads to all sorts of interesting things................

Including this work,even if somewhat dated:

Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of _Crowds

Last edited by Zeno; 04-01-2020 at 04:27 PM. Reason: Added text
Zeno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-01-2020, 05:48 PM   #29
Ryanb9
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Ryanb9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: NEVA!
Posts: 7,241
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno View Post
In light of how much fear and frenzy and economic turmoil the present pandemic is causing; how much is self-inflicted? In other words is the "cure" worse than just a nominal approach that would cause much less disruption but cause more deaths and illness.
The answer to that question is a function of a few inputs: How much did you enjoy life before the outbreak? How much do you enjoy life now (post-outbreak)? What risk to your life would you exchange to get the difference back?

Personally, I'm enjoying post-outbreak life quite a bit if only for the fact that the air quality is much improved and the nights are quiet and peaceful now.

But yeah, imo the answer to those three questions would decide for an individual if the cure is worse than the disease. However if you break quarantine you are not only risking your own life but also those with whom you may come into contact as well as those who may come into contact with those whom you came into contact. Then again, if there were a service that provided all requirements for living without any human contact then liberty would no longer hold much weight as an argument for those whom you may have come into contact with. However that is not the case currently, and human contact is required to maintain life. Because of this, your actions could be increasing another's chances of death with no input from them, which seems a bit iffy.
Ryanb9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 03:09 PM   #30
Zeno
Le Misanthrope
 
Zeno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 18,895
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

The following video is very interesting, lasts about 23 minutes, and is worthwhile in spreading information that is useful. It is basically simulations of the spread of pandemics, given different responses and sets of parameters. Very well done by someone (a team of someones actually) that at first glance appear to know what they are doing. A rarity in this world.




I have, as yet, no comment or conclusions or takeaways. But it does provide fodder for more thought and understanding.
Zeno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 07:30 PM   #31
Morphismus
Unburnenened
 
Morphismus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: noiɈɒɔo⅃
Posts: 20,417
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

The whole channel is pretty much GOAT. The complex Fourier series stuff is fantastic.
Morphismus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 10:16 PM   #32
Ryanb9
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Ryanb9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: NEVA!
Posts: 7,241
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Morphismus View Post
The whole channel is pretty much GOAT. The complex Fourier series stuff is fantastic.
I've subbed to this guy for a while but I rarely watch the videos as most are over my head. Numberphile is another channel similar to this one.

As to his coronavirus video, one thing to keep in mind is that when his graph shows even 10% infected (on the extremely small end of what his graphs are showing most of the video), if that were the infected rate in just texas alone, it would mean more cases than have happened to date in the entire world. It would mean bodies in the streets.
Ryanb9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2020, 11:38 PM   #33
Ryanb9
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Ryanb9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: NEVA!
Posts: 7,241
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

edit: I looked at the numbers again and I now think that 10% of Texas would be 25% of the total world cases thus far, and 100% of the cases in the USA thus far (as of april 2nd). Don't trust my math though -- I don't even do that.
Ryanb9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2020, 07:18 AM   #34
Neil Ferguson
newbie
 
Neil Ferguson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 23
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanb9 View Post
Models are of little use when you get too far from the data and events on which they are based. We have no history of ever destroying an area with an infected disease (like the bomb they drop in the beginning of the movie Outbreak). Because of this, I get the feeling you were joking with this post? If you weren't, can you explain in more detail what you are talking about?
You don't know my work at the Imperial College? I lead the team that did the study that made Flatten the Curve bigly. TThat's messaging even those simple rubes in Alabama can understand.

I predicted 500k dead in the UK and then changed my mind to 20k when I realized I was modeling the wrong virus, but science is tough like that, you win some you lose some.
Neil Ferguson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2020, 12:55 PM   #35
Ryanb9
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Ryanb9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: NEVA!
Posts: 7,241
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neil Ferguson View Post
You don't know my work at the Imperial College? I lead the team that did the study that made Flatten the Curve bigly. TThat's messaging even those simple rubes in Alabama can understand.

I predicted 500k dead in the UK and then changed my mind to 20k when I realized I was modeling the wrong virus, but science is tough like that, you win some you lose some.
If < 500k die from coronavirus in the UK then something on the level of a miracle happened. Were talking 1/billion chances here.
Ryanb9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2020, 10:28 PM   #36
spanktehbadwookie
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
spanktehbadwookie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: River Region
Posts: 19,358
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryanb9 View Post
If by offensive you mean it caused negative feelings in your mind, then that's not important. This is SMP, and we tend not to be concerned with feelings as much as reasons, arguments, facts, &etc.

edit: maybe not tend to be, but try to be, I think.


So we are like half humans in SMP? Wow I didnít get the memo. What about if we are defended instead of offended? Is that lower caste too?
spanktehbadwookie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-16-2020, 08:30 AM   #37
Ronny Mahoni
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Rizzle Kicking
Posts: 4,337
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Guess OP had an idea were we are going. Im sincerely crushed by the complete demolishment of freedom worldwide, based on some rather lose / very argueably bad data, let alone going against almost every rule medicine has come up with in the past centuries (like the most basic, avoiding panic in an emergency). Never was scared of an illness nor will I be. Illness and Death are important aspects to life, they arent bad, even if it feels like that for a while. In fact they are very much needed for a proper functioning of this universe. Not wanting to die or avoiding illness at all costs, is essentially you trying to not poop because **** is disgusting. But it aint and its a necessary result of the circle of life, so why think of something so mandatory to this world as a bad thing?

There are people actually willing to kill because their fear of death. Thats ironic and very very sad.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rodrigo...t-people-dead/

"Do not intimidate the government. Do not challenge the government. You will lose." (dafuq, thats fascism/dictatorship at its best)

"Poland is making quarantined citizens use a selfie app to prove they're staying inside. Singapore is using Bluetooth signals between cellphones to keep track of who people come into contact with.

But Duterte's threat may be the boldest. "I will not hesitate my soldiers to shoot you," Duterte said in forceful tones Wednesday. "I will not hesitate to order the police to arrest and detain you. Now, if you are detained, I will leave it up to you to find food."

He isnt joking btw:

https://www.dw.com/en/man-shot-dead-...les/a-53018149
Ronny Mahoni is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-22-2020, 02:55 PM   #38
lagtight
Pooh-Bah
 
lagtight's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 4,025
Re: Would just shooting everyone with a fever in China save millions of lives?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie View Post
Is a load of old and sick people dying good for the economy?
Grunch.

As an old (62 yo) and (slightly) sick person myself, I would say YES.
lagtight is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online