What IS Luck? - Page 3 - Science, Math and Philosophy Forum

What's the point? The discussion concerned whether this can be described as variance or not. Sure sounds like what you described can be called variance, and spread over the population it is neutral (some are "lucky" and some aren't).

The point with the table analogy is to say that no matter what poker room (birth place) you stumbled upon, the laws of the game are the same. Just because your outcome at one or another may be different is due to different circumstances, not because you are somehow endowed with a higher "+EV luck factor".

the question is what is luck? your +EV luck factor doesn't exist but luck does. So luck is not your +EV luck factor.

chez

Quote

09-28-2007 , 11:58 PM

#52

MiloMinderbinder

banned

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 381

Quote:

If there's no choice about anything then its all luck. Some are happier than others, no choices were made and they just got lucky.

the question is what is luck? your +EV luck factor doesn't exist but luck does. So luck is not your +EV luck factor.

chez

So then we agree: luck is variance, as stated previously.

Quote

09-29-2007 , 12:16 AM

#53

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 46,943

Quote:

If there's no choice about anything then its all luck. Some are happier than others, no choices were made and they just got lucky.

the question is what is luck? your +EV luck factor doesn't exist but luck does. So luck is not your +EV luck factor.

chez

So then we agree: luck is variance, as stated previously.

well it depends what you mean by variance and whether its always meaningful but if you just mean that whilst some people are better off then others through no fault/efforts of their own but no-one has the laws of probability in their favour then yes we agree.

chez

Quote

09-29-2007 , 01:23 AM

#54

vhawk01

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 31,866

Quote:

If there's no choice about anything then its all luck. Some are happier than others, no choices were made and they just got lucky.

the question is what is luck? your +EV luck factor doesn't exist but luck does. So luck is not your +EV luck factor.

chez

So then we agree: luck is variance, as stated previously.

Even if the laws of probability were in their favor, that would still be variance.

Quote

09-29-2007 , 01:27 AM

#55

chezlaw

Limey Bastard

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 46,943

Quote:

If there's no choice about anything then its all luck. Some are happier than others, no choices were made and they just got lucky.

the question is what is luck? your +EV luck factor doesn't exist but luck does. So luck is not your +EV luck factor.

chez

So then we agree: luck is variance, as stated previously.

Even if the laws of probability were in their favor, that would still be variance.

yes, variance in how lucky people were in things like card games. It would be variance luck that resulted in +EV luck.

chez

Quote

09-29-2007 , 07:32 PM

#56

surftheiop

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 5,162

isnt luck = variance?

Quote

12-03-2016 , 03:20 PM

#57

tirtep

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 277

Bumping an old thread. The subject of luck never gets old.

Any new ideas? I don't think luck is simply a variance.

"I know he's a good general but is he lucky"?
Napoleon Bonaparte

Last edited by tirtep; 12-03-2016 at 03:26 PM.

Quote

12-03-2016 , 03:41 PM

#58

plaaynde

Poker Historian

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 20,073

Luck is fictive.

Quote

12-03-2016 , 03:48 PM

#59

tirtep

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 277

Maybe, maybe not.

"Good luck" with that line though.

Oops, you don't believe in luck.

Quote

12-03-2016 , 06:07 PM

#60

lastcardcharlie

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,441

Luck is what happened in the past.

Quote

12-03-2016 , 06:57 PM

#61

aflametotheground

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,851

I always just viewed it as positive variance.

When it comes to experience of luck i guess you can talk about it in many ways. E.g you could set yourself up for luck by doing solid preparation etc, or lower your expecations or demands/standards making you feel luckyer.

Quote

12-03-2016 , 08:58 PM

#62

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,411

Luck is the concept that people rely on to maintain their belief that they are good when things go poorly for them.

Related, it is not unheard of for someone will pretend that they believe that luck was on their side when things go well for them when they want to appear humble.

Quote

12-04-2016 , 06:38 AM

#63

lastcardcharlie

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,441

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

Luck is the concept that people rely on to maintain their belief that they are good when things go poorly for them.

Damn, I do this all the time.

What's the alternative?

Quote

12-04-2016 , 02:38 PM

#64

tirtep

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 277

The alternative? Don't do it Charlie! Isn't the luck something that happened in the past?

Just messing with you.:

Quote

12-04-2016 , 03:21 PM

#65

lastcardcharlie

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,441

You can have been lucky in the past, but nobody has a propensity to be lucky in the future, is point I was trying to make.

Apologies for misstating the bleeding obvious.

Quote

12-04-2016 , 03:34 PM

#66

tirtep

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 277

Sorry, by the way was it a original line?

Quote

12-04-2016 , 03:37 PM

#67

Zeno

Le Misanthrope

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 22,378

Quote:

Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie

Damn, I do this all the time.

What's the alternative?

Booze and Pills?

Quote

12-08-2016 , 08:42 PM

#68

tirtep

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 277

A quick quiz question:

Who wrote this:

"But bad luck comes in many disguises".

Clues:

1- He is a very good poker player, whom I like the best.

2- He wrote this in his blog on June 10, 2011.

I think I'm making it too easy...

Quote

12-09-2016 , 02:32 PM

#69

plaaynde

Poker Historian

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 20,073

"If there weren't luck involved, I would win every time."

Too, too easy.

Quote

12-09-2016 , 03:58 PM

#70

tirtep

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 277

That is self-delusion. Did the poker brat say that?

You still didn't answer the "too easy question" bro!

By the way, he is not the one. Do a little more research chief. You're capable of that.

Last edited by tirtep; 12-09-2016 at 04:03 PM.

Quote

12-09-2016 , 11:04 PM

#71

BrianTheMick2

Long way to go and a short time to get there.

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 19,411

Quote:

Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie

Damn, I do this all the time.

What's the alternative?

Why would you want an alternative?!?

Quote

12-10-2016 , 12:42 AM

#72

plaaynde

Poker Historian

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 20,073

Quote:

Originally Posted by tirtep

That is self-delusion. Did the poker brat say that?

You still didn't answer the "too easy question" bro!

By the way, he is not the one. Do a little more research chief. You're capable of that.

Did a quick search, not finding anything, but it must be DNegs?

Quote

12-10-2016 , 12:47 AM

#73

plaaynde

Poker Historian

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 20,073

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2

Why would you want an alternative?!?

For not self-fooling? But you could also think it's windmills, not bad luck. Also the "luck" statement contains too much emotion for describing random processes.