Me too of course same thing as kid. And thank you both for your links and reviving this thread.
I just came to realize through physics and math that the unsupported optimism about abundance of intelligent life in the universe or the attempt at predicting occurrence from first ground up principles is very naive (when abiogenesis theory is not already in place) and the people in interviews like Tyson etc are totally inept at understanding how the world works moreover their "careers". When you develop so high technology and start traveling around a lot of interesting things happen in all directions. It is as if they never thought about exploring the universe and what it takes to do it. But people like Fermi or Von Neumann did get it.
Also if AI is the threat, then AI is the dominant species in the universe and can hide efficiently but why would it hide if it can dominate everything? The first one of them would quickly learn it is first and dominate for security. Life expands.
The problem is that if this galaxy has more than 1 civilization then the problem for Fermi paradox gets enormous as soon as you add the galaxies in the next 10-20 mil light years even. You easily start getting 1000+ civilizations and easily 1-10% of them would have been here earlier like 1-2-3 billion years earlier in cosmic expansion time and that is enough time to dominate all their galaxy and we still see nothing in so many millions of them around.
I can show you easily how to dominate this galaxy and convert stars to massive energy sources that create unreal solar systems that emit enormous thermal spectrum due to technology and energy usage. I can show exactly how long it takes to dominate the galaxy once you reach our level. Only 100k years!!! So what do you do in 100 mil or 1 bil? Nothing????????
We are rare. Very rare but not rare enough to be a total miracle. We are so extraordinary rare which makes it massively insulting how morons worldwide destroy the planet with their bs and leaders.
We are a miracle of some type damn it. Because i am saying without the slightest fear this simple thing. We are most likely not only the only civilization in this galaxy but 100 mil more galaxies too around us!
If not the universe is so big that you should have had at least one of the billion civilizations around dominate their entire galaxy and then expand to another million galaxies within 1 billion years.
People see a great filter. I only see how precious rare abiogenesis and further evolution without disasters is. The filter is at the beginning when life is vulnerable or not there yet at the beginning. The beginning is not trivial.
https://www.ibiology.org/evolution/origin-of-life/
But the fact we exist only 14 bil years later when average stable not super hostile solar systems last order 1 -10 bil years implies we are not super rare, so one can have both happen, us being locally first here and still many civilizations in the visible universe but probably separated by billions of light years in all directions.
Last edited by masque de Z; 05-02-2018 at 03:21 AM.