Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Raker
It would be easier if the number of Earth like planets was 0. Now that we know it isn't you have to think seriously about some of the other terms that nobody has any idea about.
Whether easier or harder to solve, the actual equation got simpler.
Part of the equation was to determine the number of current habitable planets in the Milky Way galaxy. Kepler will deliver a decent accounting of those. The 1995 reference I found had Drake putting the number of communicative civilizations in our galaxy at 10,000.
From the Kepler Mission comment - "The figures suggest our galaxy, the Milky Way [which has more than 100 billion stars] will contain 100 million habitable planets,.... "
If I'm following correctly, that would mean 1 in 10,000 habitable planets would need to be have communicative civilization for Drake to be in the ballpark. Once we get some feedback on what percentage of habitable planets are showing signs of life we'll be down to the key issue.