Certainly not in my house

So using ranges for the variables makes the end result of possibility of alien life life less likely? Is this just a trick of mathematics, or does using ranges for these variables instead of a best guess value actually mean the answer is less likely?


https://qz.com/1314111/we-may-have-a...-universe/amp/

https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

What is "best guess" in this case? Range is problematic too if it can be say from 10^-50 to 0.1

We are not alone. I already have "proven" with proper arguments why we are very rare and why also not alone likely. You can have it both. We are simply one of the first of probably order 10-100 overall in the visible universe. It is very big and we are away from the other ones by easily a few bil light years.

We are absolutely not alone if you ask me in the sense of advanced life but not technologically advanced life.

So i say we are one of the very few advanced enough to travel or on the verge of it and one of the many places still that have developed life.

Its all in the numbers and observations. Forget Drake. Its all bs because as i have said before we do not understand well the abiogenesis sequence or even how fast milestones in evolution take place and how they depend on rare events such as having specific day night period or seasons or moon or lack of rare nearby supernovas,volcanism, star activity/stability etc. So the Drake "equation" is useless because of the uncertainties involved. It never even deserved to be called an equation as if it was some useful equation that is not a trivial product of frequencies anyone can come up with and still offer no clue to anything.

This thread needs to be merged with the other most recent one with same title though.

The linked paper puts the likelihood of us being alone in our galaxy at an interval of 53-99.6% and alone in the observable universe at 39-85%. So the conclusion of the Fermi Paradox is that there is just nobody out there for us to observe.


“When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.”

I would put it at over 99.99999999% (literally, probably more 9s because there are then easily billions of galaxies within a few bil light years so the get the 10% right it needs to be over that) we are alone in the civilization level sense in the galaxy easily. But for the universe less than 10% we are alone. I say that because we happened relatively fast since the Big Bang so if life was super rare we would discover the universe being much older than current age when we first appeared to study it. Life of any primitive form however is a lot more frequent than our type but still very rare as well.

If we happened so fast it makes sense that the other did too and are simply billions of light years away from each other to not be able to notice their development yet.


It also hints that all bs theories in physics about spacetime travel with wormholes etc are total crap unrealistic career chasing dreams. Because if that was possible we would be already visited and the first would be able to go anywhere easily.

In fact its more likely that we are either very rare and lonely or among the very first within a few billion galaxies or we live in the experiment of a higher civilization, as in in their lab toy universe.

PS: Dont buy yet the bs that the universe is going to hell because of expansion any time soon. Galaxies can remain relevant for a very long time like in the trillions of years etc so the fact we happened so quickly in this period of possible solar systems means we are not alone or if we are, not for long.

I’ve also recently thought the wormhole travel thing is really unlikely just because of the flatness of the universe observed among other things. Whenever you see a diagram of an Einstein Rosen bridge it shows space time doing a 180 first allowing two gravity wells to connect and we don’t see any evidence that 180 can actually occur do we?

Beyond that, the problem of stability that sending even a particle through a worm hole is probably going to collapse it.

Would it be possible if the universe has a very imperceptible curve beyond what we can measure now for two black holes to create a bridge? I’d think there would be a limit to how deep those wells could go based on the mass of the black holes.

Well, if we are the earliest life, then that increases the possibility of some form of sci-fi FTL travel. The main argument against it (besides actual science) is that if there are lots of civilizations more advanced than us, then we would have ‘met’ them somehow.

I agree, we are early and likely alone in the observable universe, and likely to remain so for the lifespan of our solar system.