Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Science, Math, and Philosophy Discussions regarding science, math, and/or philosophy.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-28-2021, 03:36 PM   #16726
MacOneDouble
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,263
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacOneDouble View Post
Probably not worth it versus amazingly efficacious.
For Pfizer, it was a 0.74% risk in the placebo, or thereabouts, slashed by 95%. How did they determine covid19. A positive pcr test plus a symptom. That is not covid 19.

This is the EUA doc of the J&J reviewed. You could download the docs yourself and read them. It's no less dodgy for pfizer and moderna.
https://youtu.be/i5ax3GF5-PY
Here are the correct numbers for pfizer. It's actually 0.93% risk. 162 cases in unvaccinated, and 8 in vaccinated. Relative risk reduction is 95%. Absolute risk reduction is 0.88% (0.93-0.05). Is there a statisical significance between the two groups?


https://ibb.co/VB29wnD
MacOneDouble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2021, 08:13 PM   #16727
BrianTheMick2
Long way to go and a short time to get there.
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 18,302
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacOneDouble View Post
Here are the correct numbers for pfizer. It's actually 0.93% risk. 162 cases in unvaccinated, and 8 in vaccinated. Relative risk reduction is 95%. Absolute risk reduction is 0.88% (0.93-0.05). Is there a statisical significance between the two groups?





https://ibb.co/VB29wnD
Do you know what "statistical significant" means?

Do you know why it isn't what is particularly important?
BrianTheMick2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-28-2021, 09:28 PM   #16728
BrianTheMick2
Long way to go and a short time to get there.
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 18,302
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacOneDouble View Post
Probably not worth it versus amazingly efficacious.

For Pfizer, it was a 0.74% risk in the placebo, or thereabouts, slashed by 95%. How did they determine covid19. A positive pcr test plus a symptom. That is not covid 19.



This is the EUA doc of the J&J reviewed. You could download the docs yourself and read them. It's no less dodgy for pfizer and moderna.

https://youtu.be/i5ax3GF5-PY
You seem to have accidentally posted the wrong link to the document. The one you posted was a random video from some dude.
BrianTheMick2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2021, 06:17 PM   #16729
Zeno
Le Misanthrope
 
Zeno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 20,455
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Burn your Bible. But read it first.
Zeno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2021, 06:19 PM   #16730
Zeno
Le Misanthrope
 
Zeno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 20,455
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

I support R.A.P.E. Rapid Action for Petroleum Energy. And so should you.
Zeno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-29-2021, 06:30 PM   #16731
Zeno
Le Misanthrope
 
Zeno's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Spitsbergen
Posts: 20,455
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Randomly killing people is only one way to make the world a better place.
Zeno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2021, 11:31 PM   #16732
MacOneDouble
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,263
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
Do you know what "statistical significant" means?

Do you know why it isn't what is particularly important?
Not exactly. Statistics was a module for next year. But i missed out purely because i was the only one in the class that passed the course.
I was the only one out of eight to pass. Hence, i went home with a bachelors degree, couldn't go on to do a masters, and went out into the world as a fairly capable engineer.
Time went on, stats became more boresome and i slid in in the end. I could have been somone. Now i am just a shnook.
MacOneDouble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-30-2021, 11:41 PM   #16733
MacOneDouble
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,263
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

I will tell ypu this though. Take another booster which won't be a booster but a new vaccine, then you are a dummy.
MacOneDouble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 12:01 AM   #16734
PairTheBoard
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 9,661
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

I just watched the Olympics swimming event, Mixed 4x100m Medley Relay. They swim back stroke, breast stroke, butterfly, and free style 100m legs. Each team swims 2 women and 2 men and can put them in any legs they want. Amazingly, not every team mixed the women and men the same way. There should be no question which man-woman mix is optimum. My guess is to swim the women in the fastest styles, certainly the free style and I'm guessing the back stroke. Intuitively, the women should tend to swim each style about the same percent slower than the men. So they lose the least absolute time in the fastest styles. When I learned the U.S.A. was swimming their biggest star, a man, as the anchor in the free style I predicted they wouldn't have a chance. Every other team swam a woman in the free style leg. Pretty dumb imo. The U.S. didn't medal.

At least no one slipped and fell like the poor fellow running earlier in the 800 meter heat. Probably because the swimmers don't have to angle into the pack on the inside after a staggered start.


PairTheBoard
PairTheBoard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 04:14 AM   #16735
MacOneDouble
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 1,263
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Right lads, i have two weeks off work. And this is what I'ma do. I am going to go to the nethedlands. Totally unvaxxed. Mind you, it would be much easier to be vaxxed. Ill keep you updated. There is afterall no way i couod afford to get stranded there but **** it im doing it
MacOneDouble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 07:30 AM   #16736
lastcardcharlie
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
lastcardcharlie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: freak out
Posts: 9,468
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by PairTheBoard View Post
Intuitively, the women should tend to swim each style about the same percent slower than the men.
Someone was saying this is not the case, and breaststroke has the biggest difference.
lastcardcharlie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 10:57 AM   #16737
PairTheBoard
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 9,661
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie View Post
Someone was saying this is not the case, and breaststroke has the biggest difference.
So even more vital to swim the men in that leg. An easy solution is to just look at he world records for men and women for the different styles. Swim the women in the styles where the world record man/woman time differences are smallest. I guessed the back stroke and free style.


PairTheBoard
PairTheBoard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 11:19 AM   #16738
lastcardcharlie
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
lastcardcharlie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: freak out
Posts: 9,468
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Lucky that GB has the best male 100m breaststroke swimmer.
lastcardcharlie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 11:43 AM   #16739
lastcardcharlie
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
lastcardcharlie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: freak out
Posts: 9,468
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
...the best relay combination according to final times was female-male-female-male, corresponding to the backstroke-breaststroke-butterfly-freestyle order...
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...21.573285/full
lastcardcharlie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 04:42 PM   #16740
BrianTheMick2
Long way to go and a short time to get there.
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 18,302
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacOneDouble View Post
Right lads, i have two weeks off work. And this is what I'ma do. I am going to go to the nethedlands. Totally unvaxxed. Mind you, it would be much easier to be vaxxed. Ill keep you updated. There is afterall no way i couod afford to get stranded there but **** it im doing it
Is the economy that bad there? Being stranded is usually free, or at least quite inexpensive. Ample bridges to sleep under and dumpsters offer free food, even in Eurolandia, from what I've heard.
BrianTheMick2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 06:48 PM   #16741
PairTheBoard
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 9,661
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie View Post
...the best relay combination according to final times was female-male-female-male, corresponding to the backstroke-breaststroke-butterfly-freestyle order...

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...21.573285/full
Where was your quote in the article? I'm afraid I couldn't find it. The closest I found was this from the top of the article:
Quote:
The most successful gender strategy for the 4 × 100 m freestyle (57 out of 82 observations) and for the 4 × 100 m medley (29 out of 83) relays was the order male-male-female-female, although no statistical differences were found (p = 0.79) for the medley relays.
Clearly, there are a lot of complications, more than I can digest. There seems to be agreement about male on breast stroke. And there's the evidence from the Olympic final where every team swam female on free style except the U.S.

There was this:
Quote:
"With the inclusion of mixed relay races on swimming competition programs, the tactical options for team strategies become wider as coaches must take into consideration not only individual swimming capacity but also other psychological (Deaner et al., 2015), morphological (Zamparo, 2006), energetic (Barbosa et al., 2010), or biomechanical (Pelayo et al., 1996) features of female vs. male athletes. Female swimmers tend to have less pacing variations (Veiga et al., 2019) or rely more on stroking rate to swim fast (Pelayo et al., 1996), although male world records in swimming exceed female records with a mean gap around 8% (Thibault et al., 2010; Millard-Stafford et al., 2018). This implies that time gaps in the middle of the race could be greater for the mixed relays than for male- or female-only events, depending on the swimmers’ gender of each relay line up. Accordingly, mixed relay teams’ strategies could be influenced not only by the expected individuals’ swimming capacity but also by the expected partial race positioning."
The bolded is my theory. But the rest indicates a lot of complicating factors.

There's also this:
Quote:
In medley relays, despite no statistical differences, the fastest times were reported by teams that arranged the relay order as female (backstroke), male (breaststroke), female (butterfly), and male (freestyle). This would provide teams a male swimmer on the breaststroke leg, where not only the gender gap (11.31%) seems to be greater according to swimming world records (Thibault et al., 2010) but also to the percentage of time contribution in individual medley events (Saavedra et al., 2012).
Note: "no statistical differences"
Also, my theory plus another factor for male on breast stroke.

Finally:
Quote:
After the compilation of the complete mixed relay events held in 50 m pool World Swimming Championships (since 2015), the main findings of the present study reveal non-significant differences between gender strategy position on the medley relays

PairTheBoard
PairTheBoard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 07:13 PM   #16742
lastcardcharlie
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
lastcardcharlie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: freak out
Posts: 9,468
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by PairTheBoard View Post
Where was your quote in the article?
In the paragraph following Figure 1. Sorry, I don't think it was a good quote to pick. Probably better to go with the conclusion:

Quote:
For the mixed medley relay events, there is no advantage in final performance according to typical line-ups, but there is a statistical effect of the position of the first female swimmer, suggesting a later positioning compared to males. Also, performance in the freestyle relay leg during heats as well as on the breaststroke leg during finals has a statistical effect on relay performance.
lastcardcharlie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 08:30 PM   #16743
Howard Beale
Formerly red
 
Howard Beale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Doing what my dog wants
Posts: 22,085
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Have any of you seen a swimming event? It really doesn't translate to TV which makes it look like the swimmers aren't going all that fast but seen live which I have once is incredible. These swimmers are really moving very, very fast.
Howard Beale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 08:51 PM   #16744
PairTheBoard
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 9,661
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie View Post
In the paragraph following Figure 1. Sorry, I don't think it was a good quote to pick. Probably better to go with the conclusion:
Thanks. Here's the full paragraph.

Quote:
he most common gender strategy according to one-way ANOVA for both the 4 × 100 m freestyle and medley mixed relays was male-male-female-female order (57 out of 82 cases for the freestyle and 29 out of 83 for the medley relays, respectively). This male-male-female-female relay composition represented better relay total times in the 4 × 100 m freestyle mixed event (p < 0.001), whereas no statistical differences (p = 0.79) were detected in the 4 × 100 m medley mixed relay (Figure 2). In this latter case, the best relay combination according to final times was female-male-female-male, corresponding to the backstroke-breaststroke-butterfly-freestyle order (237.47 ± 16.14 s). The relative dispersion indicated by the coefficient of variation (CV) of the relay leg performances was not only greater for female than for male swimmers, but also for the heats compared to the final round (CV 6.17 and 1.39% for males vs. 8.38 and 1.46% for females, in the finals or heats round, respectively).
Notice the very strong p-value, 0.001, for swimming the men first in the freestyle mixed relay. I think that sums up the effect of all the psychological factors. But those effects are evidently negated in the mixed medley, I suspect because of the gender differential between events.

There's a 6 second difference in male/female world records for the butterfly while a 5 second difference for freestyle. Also, Caeleb Dressel, who the U.S. swam in the freestyle, holds the butterfly world record. However, it's possible the U.S. female freestyle swimmer is more than a second weaker than the U.S. female butterfly swimmer. I can see how generic gender event differentials on the order of 1 second could be negated by other factors, especially in individual cases.


PairTheBoard
PairTheBoard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-31-2021, 10:59 PM   #16745
PairTheBoard
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 9,661
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

I suppose the U.S. butterfly swimmer having the bad luck to lose her goggles at the start of her leg might have also had something to do with the team's finish.


PairTheBoard
PairTheBoard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2021, 04:53 AM   #16746
BrianTheMick2
Long way to go and a short time to get there.
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 18,302
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

It seems to me that the teams probably have access to their actual swimmers' previous times before setting the rosters for relays.

You would rely on data for male/female WR times or average male/female competitive swimmer times if this wasn't available, but when this individual data is available it would be silly to even glance at average or WR times.
BrianTheMick2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2021, 11:03 AM   #16747
lastcardcharlie
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
lastcardcharlie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: freak out
Posts: 9,468
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

You mean, just select whichever legitimate combination of fastest times is the fastest?
lastcardcharlie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2021, 11:28 AM   #16748
PairTheBoard
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 9,661
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrianTheMick2 View Post
It seems to me that the teams probably have access to their actual swimmers' previous times before setting the rosters for relays.

You would rely on data for male/female WR times or average male/female competitive swimmer times if this wasn't available, but when this individual data is available it would be silly to even glance at average or WR times.
The question was whether the advantage is so large for placing the two far slower swimmers (females) in the shorter (time-wise) races as to make it silly to even consider individual data or gender psychology. Suppose the females were half as fast as males for all events - give or take a little for individual data. Suppose males swim the first 3 legs in about 100 seconds each and the last leg in about 50 seconds - give or take a little for individual data. Would you even consider placing a male in the last leg based on individual data? Of course not.


PairTheBoard
PairTheBoard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2021, 12:45 PM   #16749
BrianTheMick2
Long way to go and a short time to get there.
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 18,302
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by PairTheBoard View Post
The question was whether the advantage is so large for placing the two far slower swimmers (females) in the shorter (time-wise) races as to make it silly to even consider individual data or gender psychology. Suppose the females were half as fast as males for all events - give or take a little for individual data. Suppose males swim the first 3 legs in about 100 seconds each and the last leg in about 50 seconds - give or take a little for individual data. Would you even consider placing a male in the last leg based on individual data? Of course not.





PairTheBoard
I'm apparently missing something. What benefit is gained over the far simpler and far more accurate method of using the individual data?
BrianTheMick2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-01-2021, 12:50 PM   #16750
BrianTheMick2
Long way to go and a short time to get there.
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 18,302
Re: SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie View Post
You mean, just select whichever legitimate combination of fastest times is the fastest?
Yes. Not seeing any downside to the method
BrianTheMick2 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:17 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive