Don't throw the old rags away, store in bag,wash dry , reusable...Some one must know of reusable diapers...

Disease mitigation strategizing is fun!

I am trying to wrap my head around the narrative. It seems true that if everyone on earth was to self isolate for 2 weeks, the virus would die. Or the person carrying the virus would and thus the virus would die.

Of course, that isn't practical.

Social distancing can certainly decrease the Reproductive rate of the virus. Again, in theory, if the R nought is less than one it can't reproduce and will die out.

But how is it logical to lift social restrictions when the R nought is less than 1 and assume it is the correct move and that the Reproductive rate won't increase again.
I can't see how it wont, until a vaccine is produced and tried and tested.

And from a medical advisors pov to the politicians I would expect it but also be comfortable that instead of the feared surge we will instead have a yoyo effect, and the curve will become a series of waves that the healthcare system can handle.

Other questions include: will the same percentage of the populations get infected anyway and if so does that mean that social distancing was not the right move. Or the social distancing that we did until we didn't .

If a country had the hypothetical healthcare system that could care for anyone who entered into it, would social distancing be reasonable in any sense. Barring those who tend to mostly die from the disease.

Widespread testing of course would answer most of these questions.

At least all the sociology degrees are finally coming in handy

Only so many sardines can fit in a can. Waiting lists don't work well for the very ill.

If said with biting sarcasm and a twisted smirk, I will agree.

It was a a tribute to the classic piece of graffiti and in response to the shortage of toilet paper discussion.

For your Sunday amusement and edification:

Three thousand brass plates, the acts of the senate and people, were deposited in the Capitol; and some of the acts, as the Julian law against extortion, surpassed the number of a hundred chapters. The Decemivrs* had neglected to import the sanction of Zaleucus**, which so long maintained the integrity of his republic. A Locrian who proposed any new law [or an alteration of an existing one] stood forth in the assembly of the people with a cord round his neck, and if the law was rejected the innovator was instantly straggled. [My comment] -Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.


*A member of a permanent board or a special commission of ten members in ancient Rome, especially the commission that drew up Rome's first code of law. a member of any council or ruling body of ten.

** Codified Locrian Law

#######

Been rereading Gibbon - Much more worthwhile and up to date than any current newspaper, magazine, or internet babbling and frivolity.

I’m off the booze since January due to new heart meds, but....

https://youtu.be/_UnCtGI63yo

Was the law against extortion so long so it could cover all the cases or all the exceptions?


PairTheBoard

Seems counterintuitive that the doctors would want you to stop taking brain food

I do not know the particulars but perhaps extortion was a very profitable crime and used by "eveyone' so all possible cases were covered by the code. Exceptions would, I will guess, be made in court on a case by case basis. But I could be wrong. I'm not that knowledgeable on old Roman Jurisprudence or their court system. But the above does seem a probable conjecture.

We haven't even come close yet: Hong Kong Flu 1968-69, 1972

Hong_Kong_flu


The same virus returned the following years: a year later, in late 1969 and early 1970, and in 1972. The total worldwide death toll is estimated to have been in the region of one million people.
*********************

Current worldwide death toll (today) is ~170,000 for COVID-19.

Projections................?

The Hong Kong flu was so bad it killed some people two or three times.


PairTheBoard

This one killed even more. It was the subject of a good book and movie, so was worth it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica

I'm calling in The Polymath Dr. Buckaroo Banzai, a physicist, neurosurgeon, test pilot, and musician - To Save the World.



Dr. Banzai is at center, with the suit and Bow Tie. His associates cluster around.

We can all relax - We are now in Good Hands.

Rising exponentially we should be on course to hitting the one milly mark soon. Three to four more pages ITT we should be there I'd say.

I hear they are paying £4500 to volunteers. Send in the whole family.

But this is some good news. Go science.

https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=70286101

I wonder what percentage of people who thought they were doing important things are now sitting at home because they have been deemed inessential.

I wonder what percentage of those people are cognizant that they are not needed.

"You have been deemed both inessential and a danger to society. Please do not venture out into public. Thank you for your cooperation."

Not so inessential in the sequel though.




PairTheBoard

Ozark is great.

One percent; leaving 99% in the cesspool of confirmation bias and turmoil of thinking that the world can't get along without THEM.

Remains me of this: in the mid-1980s I was working for the US Government and Reagan shut the government down over spending bill(s) etc. Anyway, a fax came to the office and all non-essential personal were dismissed. I was included. In fact almost everyone was included, expect a few Technicians that needed to monitor and keep essential equipment functioning properly. And the Janitor. The rest of us went to a bar and started drinking beer. What was amusing is that one of the "essential people" went with us; so we made him buy a round for eveyone. That was deemed essential. If I recall this correctly the shutdown only last a day or two. But it was an excellent way to deflate the ego.