In the second year of the reign of Valentinian and Valens [365 AD], on the morning of the twenty-first day of July, the greatest part of the Roman world was shaken by a violent and destructive earthquake. [The Great Crete earthquake (so named) also generated a devastating tsunami]…………………


..............It was the fashion of the times to attribute every remarkable event to the particular will of the Deity; the alterations of nature were connected, by an invisible chain, with the moral and metaphysical opinions of the human mind; and the most sagacious divines could distinguish, according to the colour of their respective prejudices, that the establishment of heresy tended to produce an earthquake, or that of a deluge was the inevitable consequence of the progress of sin and error. Without presuming to discuss the truth of propriety of these lofty speculations, the historian may content himself with an observation, which seems to be justified by experience, that man has much more to fear from the passions of his fellow-creatures than from the convulsions of the elements.

- Edward Gibbon: The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire

PairTheBoard

PairTheBoard

This week and next Italy will establish in a profound way that their curve has turned around.

California and New York will follow 4-5 weeks later.


2020 it is!

Maybe. Except that CA and NY have a further influx of cases from other states, which means you have the very distinct possibility of more complex curves than when you have a population that consists of one population.

Italy isn't one population either. The disaster is mostly in Lombardy with other regions still at the beginning.

The data has to be examined reasonably closely to make comparisons. Deaths are counted differently and testing isn't equal.

Trillion Dollar Coins
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion-dollar_coin
The Fed said it has an "infinite amount of money", so no problem starting a little Trillion Dollar Coin collection. I'll have to start checking my pocket change if they start minting these things. Would make a good Oceans 11.7 movie to steal one from the Fed. A surprise at Pawn Stars when George Clooney walks in with one.


PairTheBoard

PairTheBoard

Probably just means they can mint more money.

Yep. Any curve we can draw is going to be in the tradition of "inelastic collision in a vacuum."

I think I have been through worse **** in my life surely but this seems to be taking a toll on my well being. I cant switch it off and neither can anyone else. It's the unknown. How we are grinding the economy and every day social activities no matter how big or small to a complete halt. While testing this theory of social distancing. Social distancing or herd immunity. Both seemingly sound but a question of which is more damaging. The fact that the Brits tried one and switched to the other isn't encouraging either.

At least when you have a personal issue you can look to others for some vicarious hope. With this there's nowhere to look to for hope, except the one country where the **** began. And we knew for years and they were warned for years that **** is the most predictable outcome of those God damned wet markets. This is one of those times where everyone being in same boat is not helpful psychologically.

Quitting booze for the month of march may not be helping.

https://youtu.be/9jpbnLBwlKo

Good woman. Give it to me hard and straight to the point.

Start keeping a diary; good for the soul, and the personal documentation of the disintegration of society, governments, institutions, and the thin fabric of civilization should prove interesting to future generations.

The disintegration starts slowly and then will ramp up exponentially!

My rereading of Gibbon confirms this.

Lyrics:


Well, the moon is broken and the sky is cracked
Come on up to the house

The only things that you can see is all that you lack
Come on up to the house

All your crying don't do no good
Come on up to the house

Come down off the cross, we can use the wood
You gotta come on up to the house

Come on up to the house
Come on up to the house

The world is not my home
I'm just a-passing through

You got to come on up to the house
There's no light in the tunnel, no irons in the fire
Come on up to the house

And you're singing lead soprano in a junkman's choir
You got to come on up to the house

Does life seem nasty, brutish and short
Come on up to the house

The seas are stormy and you can't find no port
Got to come on up to the house, yeah

You gotta come on up to the house
Come…

Yeah, like Samuel Pepys.

Mac, it isn't social distancing vs herd immunity. The herd immunity is just something that will happen regardless of what we do. Social distancing just slows down the spread to make it more manageable.

Also, on a more personal level, if you committed to yourself to not drink in March, did you specify which March? There is always a loophole to get out of unfortunate decisions

Sure. However, In the UK they decided not to close schools and then decided against that decision about a week after we closed.


Perhaps it's a bit hopeful to think I'll make it here in June. But things that are planned to go ahead aren't cancelled yet
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ozmh40wwAGc





I may as well see the month out just to say I had a sober month. I've not had one of those since forever.

It's a somehat strange way to look at it. The UK decided to take measures at the right time. What the right time is, is debatable but it's a bit of misunderstanding to think about it as a decision about whether to close schools rather than when to close schools.

It's a frustration, that shouldn't manifest in SMP*, that a dynamic policy (which is generally a superior approach) is portrayed as a static policy where any change in action is seen as a change in decision with some implication that some mistake had been made.

If it's getting to you I suggest some news free days. Try to do something else

*I'll cut you some slack as you're not drinking properly at the moment.

As a teenager I had a mate who bought a load of duty free cigarettes and declared he would give up smoking once he finished them. Years later he still had one packet stashed away somewhere

Well, you probably weren't going to get a record for the number of consecutive number of non-sober months anyway.

The sense of accomplishment with taking a month off might do you some good.

Maybe find yourself some sort of amusement to pass the time until both things blow over? I am sure there are movies left to watch and books left to read.

On the ridiculous but true side of things how many lives has the virus saved because people drive less, are out to kill each other less or the pollution has declined dramatically in cities and urban areas and have less random encounters of bs activities?

1.35 mil deaths per year (2016) to driving are probably easily down to half that or less so 1800 per day are not dying.

Radiation indoors may raise cancer rates too (radon gas etc) on the other side of things, Truth is an interesting thing.

I'm not looking at it the way that may have came across. Your government did flip flop on this one issue though. Not closing schools was an argument for a minute.
I was asking which one of us is more wrong for a working week at least. I wasn't like others saying it was idiotic.

Our country's version of Fauci sounds confident and intelligent but slips in the occasional "we'll see if this works" now and then.

You may get corona. You may lose a loved. You may lose your job if you haven't already.

Relax, everything is out of control. As a Buddhist might say.

Pointless worrying about what might happen. Its unnecessary suffering to have.
And that is good to know.

Guy Ritchie has a new movie out I should watch. Now that you remind me.

That is a good trick. If you can pull it off.