Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
There is, like, an enormous body of literature showing that humans are terrible at picking random numbers.
But what's more dubious is the claim that it's not -EV to play lotto if you're good at investing, which is bizarre. Like, if you're a wiz investor, it's even more of a mistake to blow money on lotto and lose the opportunity cost of investing that money.
But we are not talking investing 10k to lotto vs in some combination of well researched new companies and some established winners. Its only 2$ or $100 every time it's jackpot big over 500 mil say.
I am willing to claim that this is a much better EV than actually investing it. Unless you invest it and then use it for jackpots in some optimal combo lol!
You see how its impossible to ever see 200 mil in so short period of time playing the investing or company creating game exactly as it deserves properly.
So if you ask yourself what offers the highest chance to have 200 mil in 1 year the answer is what?
Will you ever try to bet 1mil to reach 2 with 55% chance if you have only 200k in your banks and other liquid assets say?
Here is what you can do if you play only in jackpots. Start putting aside every month 500$ for various drip investment ideas and when it goes over 500 mil use that money that month (the 500) for tickets properly selected to not overlap that bad. If your drip starts working over 10% per year start doing 1k etc on jackpots.
Its lost money typically but i bet its more EV than the investing itself.
The actual EV of instant 200 mil win is easily better than stock market of same money invested. But its not wise to take your money and risk it there. You have to find the equivalent kelly betting amount per big jackpot.
But the true value is life EV that makes possible to realize exceptional experiences and power positions to fulfill other more important than money ideas.
We can make a thread actually about it and try to formulate a game like that with instant wins with some probability vs continued investment and figure out the optimal allocation strategy under a given objective.