SMP Life is Being Drunk -Random Content thread - Page 30

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08-10-2011 , 04:12 AM

#726

Redtuber

adept

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 955

if you can master Kelly Criterion, then you can make a lot of money at sports betting. Period.

Quote

08-10-2011 , 05:37 PM

#727

qdmcg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 4,870

Quote

08-10-2011 , 05:46 PM

#728

LXThrottle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,396

Quote:

Reasons to bet less than Kelly

A natural assumption is that taking more risk increases the probability of both very good and very bad outcomes. One of the most important ideas in Kelly is that betting more than the Kelly amount decreases the probability of very good results, while still increasing the probability of very bad results. Since in reality we seldom know the precise probabilities and payoffs, and since overbetting is worse than underbetting, it makes sense to err on the side of caution and bet less than the Kelly amount.

Can't make a decision if it's good advice or poor (to the skilled "gambler"). The precise probability is always 0 or 1 anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Quote

08-11-2011 , 10:27 AM

#729

LXThrottle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,396

Somehow I forgot to sleep today. meh

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08-11-2011 , 10:38 AM

#730

LXThrottle

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 5,396

Surprising animal behavior:

Spoiler:

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08-16-2011 , 01:45 AM

#731

Redtuber

adept

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 955

Quote:

Originally Posted by LXThrottle

Can't make a decision if it's good advice or poor (to the skilled "gambler"). The precise probability is always 0 or 1 anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Well it depends on the market. Currently the options for American sports bettors suck, so less is definitely better right now unless you luck out and find a huge kelly edge some place.

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11-02-2011 , 03:49 PM

#732

lastcardcharlie

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,435

How come fractions and ordinals often have the same name: third, fifth, sixth, etc?

Quote

11-08-2011 , 11:46 AM

#733

ShermanTank

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 401

So SMP goes 7 pages of threads back for me. Does anyone know how to find the other collection of the other threads that I see from the forum statistics and search function?

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11-08-2011 , 02:50 PM

#734

All-In Flynn

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 10,923

Scroll to the bottom of the forum and change the option from the drop-down menu on the bottom left.

Quote

11-08-2011 , 04:05 PM

#735

ShermanTank

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 401

Quote:

Originally Posted by All-In Flynn

Scroll to the bottom of the forum and change the option from the drop-down menu on the bottom left.

I have been searching for that for so long I can't believe it was in plain view for a good portion of that time. Thank you.

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11-08-2011 , 06:28 PM

#736

Ratamahatta

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,157

A question to all PhD, postdoc+ people: When you attend to scientific conferences abroad, do you have time to be a tourist or is it just; make a speech, listen to other people talk, have a dinner with other geeks and go home?

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11-08-2011 , 07:15 PM

#737

lastcardcharlie

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 10,435

You sometimes get a day trip with geeks.

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11-09-2011 , 07:19 AM

#738

Loce

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 930

It depends. But generally, if you want to play tourist you can always find the time to do so. It is also really common to extend conference trips for this purpose.

Quote

11-11-2011 , 06:26 PM

#739

Cueballmania

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 14,165

Also, a lot of times the organizers of the conference will have some tourist type trip for you to sign up for.

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11-18-2011 , 05:36 PM

#740

AKSpartan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 9,931

What backgrounds do you guys have in math/science?

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11-18-2011 , 05:54 PM

#741

Cueballmania

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 14,165

BS is Physics and Mathematics. Second year in grad school doing chemical physics (All physics, no chemistry).

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11-18-2011 , 06:08 PM

#742

wazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 14,755

took 2 years of maths and physics at manchester uni, dropped out, 2 years of politics and philosophy, dropped out again.

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11-18-2011 , 07:18 PM

#743

Loce

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 930

Pretty much none...

Quote

11-19-2011 , 03:49 AM

#744

Cueballmania

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 14,165

I hate the word random. The words out of someone's mouth is not random. That's like 95% of the public use of the word.

Quote

11-19-2011 , 03:49 AM

#745

Cueballmania

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 14,165

Welcome to 1/8 of 100K posts to me!

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11-19-2011 , 04:27 AM

#746

PGH-N8V

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 71

Had no idea this forum existed here, let alone a thread that really speaks to me. BSEE from Pitt, drinking Makers and Diet tonight. Usually a scotch guy.

Last edited by PGH-N8V; 11-19-2011 at 04:28 AM. Reason: by speaks to me, I mean Cueballmania's avatar

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11-19-2011 , 06:36 AM

#747

wazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 14,755

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cueballmania

I hate the word random. The words out of someone's mouth is not random. That's like 95% of the public use of the word.

it depends on your definition of the word random. imo it should be from the pov of whoever uses the word. so 95% of what you say is random to me, because I don't have perfect information about your brain.

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11-19-2011 , 03:26 PM

#748

Cueballmania

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 14,165

Just because you don't know something doesn't make things random.

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11-19-2011 , 08:45 PM

#749

wazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 14,755

Well yeah it sorta does actually. Is the lottery random? I think we can agree that quantum effects can't change a result, so with enough information we can know 100% what the result will be.

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11-19-2011 , 10:12 PM

#750

Cueballmania

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 14,165

Quote:

Originally Posted by wazz

it depends on your definition of the word random. imo it should be from the pov of whoever uses the word.

From my point of view higher level mathematics would be random since I don't have perfect information on how it's done. See where your argument breaks down? What if I destroy mailboxes using a pattern that you don't know? Just because you don't know a specific pattern doesn't mean that it's random.

Basically, pleading ignorance is not justification that a process is random.

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