Why? Have you seen the math? Why do all these guys stop at 400m and do not try higher to add one more medal for the hell of it. This means at 800m already they have issues that make them non competitive to the genuine 800m people. At 1600m that will be even more damaging. Now the fact is at 5000m and even 3000m Farah is dominating easily (he has won the 3k before). So we need to go lower than 3000 which is an eternity of 8 min for a 9.6 sec guy. So try lower and go to a place that both have problems but its still closer to the 5000 in ratio than say 400 is . So this is why i say 1600, a 3-4 min race that is still an order of magnitude longer than the 100-200m thing he excels.
It cannot be very low like 800m because the 400m Bolt runs is fast to get him in 4x400 relays so another 400m is doable without collapsing terribly. But 4x that will be real bad. The other guy however can do it because he knows the distance and he simply needs to run faster than usual and he does have the energy for it because he delivers that energy in 13 min usually so he can deliver 20% more in 4min and be done. He has that. He has run competitively at 800-1500m before and has(had) ER record at 1500m it seems 2 years ago. At 15-20% better effort than his typical 5000m distance he will be able to see 7.5-7.7m/sec speed and Bolt will need to run now 4-8-16x longer distance than usual (400-200-100 he has run before) with a top speed of 11-12m/sec or avg near 10.5m/sec so at his 100m, i can see his avg dropping to 8 or less before that level. Why? Because he has 8.8m/sec av on 400m relays or basic 400 when he ran these (but he rarely runs 400m anymore). Expect therefore the 8.8 to collapse even further down to maybe 7.5 (for the second 400) say 10-20% per 400m so he will be looking at less than 7 even if he paced himself the first 400 to not go so fast and collapse right away at 800-1000m say even or less by 800m and thats where he will meet the rallying effort of Farah that is a 6.5m/sec guy on his distances that are 3x larger and who has done 7.4m/sec when he run 1600 and 800 sometimes when he did well then (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mo_Farah).
This is why i said at 1600m Farah will be doing better than Bolt. If you want to be very accurate maybe the right distance is around 1000m as i think Bolt can survive another 400m since he has done ok at 400m (45 seconds 8.9 m/sec). So their speeds likely meet at over 1000m somewhere so i made it 1600m for safety. Maybe i can take it to 1200m now with a bit of confidence.
So i think anything near 1600 will prove hard for Bolt and maybe the real crossing is at 1000-1200 or so .
Keep in mind Bolt is a destined to win guy (better competitive ego maniacal mentality) and that also works for him even in tough spots so he may not be in trouble yet at 800-1000m if forced to try it. He hasnt done it competitively because its probably very taxing/risky and it would undermine his other races. But if forced i think he has it in him to at least be ahead at 800m.
Last edited by masque de Z; 08-29-2015 at 04:55 PM.