I'll agree with this. Then again, I don't think the average American really thinks there is a 1% chance they will die. I think they are convincing themselves otherwise. They are taking quick reassurance in comforting data.

Sure, but they know almost to the penny how long they have before they cannot afford food. It might surprise you to learn that it is, for the average person, somewhere between one and two weeks without working and that is if they are willing to forgo paying any of their bills.

Most of the population couldn't have isolated themselves when you did, even if they really really really really really wanted to. Which, of course, they didn't.

The social model of disability is in effect for many who typically expect to be able.

Which explains why the restaurant, hotel, cinema, shop, etc etc worker would wish to carry on irregardless but it wont alter the fact that they wont have a job because their customers are too scared to come. And it wont help their landlords, service providers etc when they then can't pay their bills. And it wont help the banks when they all can't pay their mortgages and debts.

So your two week point will result in economic collapse, it wont prevent it.

Agreed. I think the goal right now is to slow the spread of the virus until mask production gets to a point where each person can have at least 1 fresh mask per day. Once we get there, going to work wont be such a big deal, nor will going to the mall, or going to the movies, or going to the bank, etc.

Once we get the point of managing the virus to a similar extent as Taiwan, the economy will be able to expand with only minor constraints.

I don't remember saying that it would help.

Like I said.


PairTheBoard

Let's modify the above to a more reasonable number as above assumes almost everyone on the planet contracts the virus. Let's say the chances of contracting the virus is 5% (assuming all people wash hand, keep a reasonable distance, and don't touch entry points). So .05 x .02 = 0.001; or in other words a 10 fold reduction in probable deaths*. Then the revised figure for Total Worldwide Deaths given that almost everyone contracts the virus would then be a paltry 14,000,000**, not 140,000,000.

Le Misanthrope

* not exact but a reasonable estimate.

**This figure would discount "extra deaths" due to failure or lack of proper facilities and/or care. But that would mostly be for the " older group" of people. And I'm in the Older Group. Bonus points for me.

Point 7. (Because 7 is a lucky number)

The emotional/hysterical response of a great many people is: It's 100% that I will get the virus and if I get it is 100% that I will die from it. People assume this and work forward from that, a certain death and destruction scenario - instead of seeing the real reasonable probability, and then work forward.

[My Bold]

Two weeks?! When was the kick off date? So are you saying I only need a two-week stock of whiskey? - Or that I need more right now to sustain myself for the real ugliness ahead?

Stop repeating yourself. It is very distracting.

My girlfriends’ mother it seems, operates on that assumption. I operate on the 100% chance I’ll get it, 0% chance it will kill me scale… But act somewhat..? socially responsible as to appease that crowd.

I operate on the 'well at least if I die from it, the philosophy behind my financial planning and hedonism will be triumphant' principle

That was now long BTM said many people can last without any income.

and NO! running out of whisky is a catastrophe. You need a bottle in hand to wave defiantly at the grim reaper.

Oh, I see - thanks for the clarification. On both aspects.

Ok, need advice: Aside from procuring more of the same as seen below, what other whiskeys do I need to acquire for the upcoming Apocalypse?

Wanted to punch the card on useful advice in these trying times – the whole hand washing thing is something we all need to do (and get under the nails with a soft brush). But you need to be careful of overdoing this. Why? Well, the dead skin is actually a good protective layer. And over washing (or overusing wipes etc) to the degree of making your hands and skin sensitive and removing all dead skin and natural oil and making them raw is not wise. In addition, much washing can/does lead to drying out the skin and thus producing cracking and other small points that allow entry of foreign material directly into your body. This is just as bad as touching your mouth or eyes or scratching your little pee-pee or pussy, as the case may be. So, wash wisely but also discreetly and watch for rawness and cracking. Applying a hand lotion after washing would help keep the skin supple and smelling wonderful and preclude drying and cracking of the skin.

I have noted where I am anyway, that many places now require hand washing before entering the facility or establishment. Today I had to wash twice while out and about annoying the throbbing masses. Just a friendly reminder from your SMP Health Officer.

70% + of the worlds population will get this virus, the only thing that might change is how quickly that will happen. Probably 3-6 months at the current rate of exponential growth (im guessing based on glancing at world numbers once a day). It's the most infectious disease humans have ever seen, landing at a time when humans are the most globally connected they have ever been. Most of the spread of this virus has been horizontal, spreading throughout the world. Its starting to grow vertically in NYC, Washington, etc. It def went vertical in Wuhan but didn't spread horizontally in China until now. If I had to place money on the world deaths from it 1.5 years from now I'd say 250 million (7bil * .7 *.05). That is assuming a 70% infected rate with a 5% death rate. That estimated death rate has factors taken into consideration such as hospital overflow, death and therefore shortages of nurses and doctors, lack of medical supplies, lack of preventative supplies, etc. This is not including secondary deaths, i.e. people who die from car crashes when they would otherwise have lived because the hospitals were full. This is just my best guesses though.

edit: as time goes on, I think the death rate will rise. this is because resources are now being sent to the worst hit places in the world. these worst-hit places are also the first-hit places. when the 4th and 5th and 30th and 32nd and 120th worst hit places become as bad as the currently worst-hit places, which is only a matter of time, there will not be cities and states sending them their extra supplies because there wont be any extra supplies. these are the best of times as far as living with the virus is concerned, I personally believe. even the worst hit places right now have < 2% of their population infected. if it becomes 10% or 20% infected at the same time, the death rates may approach 10%, who knows.

Worrying is silly.

I just learned that 8 billion is much closer to the world population than 7 billion.

The virus will be defeated probably by antivirals and vaccines but it wont be very fast.

If it is defeated by natural immunity i doubt 70% of the planet get it. I think 30-40% gets it because the fact of this world is that only a small fraction of people are highly interacting people. If those get it then they will block further transfer in the future to others. So those that do not have it and are not immune will need to interact with those that are now having it for first time and that will become progressively harder because the heavy action people around them have had it and shield them keeping the ones that are vulnerable disconnected in islands from each other.

You can run the simulation math in your mind easily.

Only math defeats that virus. If the avg person gives it to 3 its bad. If it is 1.5 its manageable and still not good but the moment it drops to 0.8 because you cannot give it anymore to active people around you then that moment the epidemic will collapse on its own like a map with endless black pixels surrounded by blue ones that shield the white ones that have not had it yet. Then the black will gradually become blue or die but mostly blue and the white will only slowly become black sporadically until no more and the epidemic will self collapse because the cases will drop left and right and evaporate from the map leaving blue pixels behind surrounding islands of white pixels. The blue perimeter of the islands is the most active people of society and the top 20% of the other ones.

The endgame is 30-40% blue pixels no black ones and the rest white and still vulnerable but nothing to attack them anymore out there.

Most of the heavy activity of this world is probably due to less than 10% of people.

The fact is others will travel and go to places they can get it but then it will die with them or in them because they wont be able to infect others that are actively interacting with them because they had it already.

Math kills this virus. The previous big one only infected 30% of the planet and it went on all countries.

This is likey to be a -ve number i.e less people will die in car crashes because of covid as the fewer numebr of journies will outweigh the lack of hospital space.

this is likely to be true for many things i.e there will be far fewer flu deaths because of covid social distancing. Also some of the people who would have died of flu and other things will already be dead.

Whatever you fancy is good. Just avoid anything that looks like it would appeal to some well meaning non-whisky drinker buying a present for someone who likes whisky, or any versions that are made just for airport duty free.

If you liked Talisker then I'd recommend the 18 year old as awesome but like all the 'notch up' whisky it's very expensive these days.

Consider cask strength if you want to make doubly sure to prevent covid. Warning, after a while you can't so easily go back to the usual strength.

I would like to wager all I've got to bet I won't die of the virus within the next year. DUCY?


If you can see why that would be a great bet and you're worried you'll get the virus and you're in a high risk category, then you can get a similar effect as making that bet by investing in companies that have promising treatment drugs in development.


PairTheBoard

I'd try to acquire full bottles. The half-empty ones don't have as much whiskey in them.