Quote:
Originally Posted by SiberianPIMP
I think now it is clear, if you look what I wrote(no need to bet first 3 sequences; for easier understanding; but really just in this betting system in this case).
TNX for calculating. But I am saying that we are maybe calculating some things wrong.
You say "we" but really, you're the one who is calculating something wrong. Forget all of the fancy calculations that you clearly don't understand and try to focus on the things that you do.
Let me strip my calculation back to skip the first coin flip, and you tell me EXACTLY what you think is wrong.
Quote:
TTT you bet T on the 4th
HTT you bet H on the 4th
THT you bet H on the 4th
HHT you bet T on the 4th
TTH you bet H on the 4th
HTH you bet T on the 4th
THH you bet T on the 4th
HHH you bet H on the 4th
If we hit our sequence we get +1. If we lose sequence we get -1.
If TTT you bet T on the 4th
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is T and you get +1
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is H and you get -1
HTT you bet H on the 4th
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is H and you get +1
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is T and you get -1
THT you bet H on the 4th
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is H and you get +1
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is T and you get -1
HHT you bet T on the 4th
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is T and you get +1
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is H and you get -1
TTH you bet H on the 4th
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is H and you get +1
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is T and you get -1
HTH you bet T on the 4th
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is T and you get +1
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is H and you get -1
THH you bet T on the 4th
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is T and you get +1
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is H and you get -1
HHH you bet H on the 4th
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is H and you get +1
-- 50% of the time the 4th flip is T and you get -1
This is a 0 EV game. What part of my analysis (not YOUR analysis) is wrong? There are no standard deviations here. There are no approximations. There is no binomial vs normal. This is *YOUR* assumption that it's a 50-50 coin flip. These are just the raw basics.
Edit:
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiberianPIMP
But what if this are not exact numbers?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SiberianPIMP
For example I got a number 51,6% with normal approximation. Maybe there is a error there. So, maybe exact number is 50,5%. Tell me why is this wrong?
We *KNOW* precisely what's exact and what's not in your calculation. You've been told and shown the exact statement in the wikipedia post why it's wrong. You've been shown why your normal approximation is wrong.
It's like taking a straight measuring stick but trying to measure a curved line with it, but you're insisting that the line is straight so the ruler must be broken.
Last edited by Aaron W.; 08-12-2018 at 10:48 AM.