"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? - Page 8

The chart is kind of ridic on it's own taken out of context.

Look at all the charts where instead of using his own data points, he uses that of 50 different historians, and somehow they magically all form the same shape on a logarithmic chart.

There's just so much evidence in TSIN, that looking at one chart and saying, "lol" is pretty silly.

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08-04-2010 , 07:00 PM

#177

JayTee

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Originally Posted by ZeeJustin

You could pretty much make this chart at any point in recorded history. Do you not see that?

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08-04-2010 , 07:34 PM

#178

JammyDodga

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IIsn't that the point? But yeah, I have issues with the chart too.

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08-04-2010 , 07:35 PM

#179

JammyDodga

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Originally Posted by A_C_Slater

This Singularity gibberish is just another vessel for immortality, like religion. And the adherents appear to defend Singularity in all its wackiness as vehemently as fanatics preaching the coming of The Lord.

How about you put down your straw man and engage with the people, you know, actually posting itt?

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08-04-2010 , 07:36 PM

#180

JayTee

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Originally Posted by JammyDodga

IIsn't that the point? But yeah, I have issues with the chart too.

My point is that you can arbitrarily choose data points to predict the singularity whenever you want it.

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08-04-2010 , 07:43 PM

#181

chezlaw

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Originally Posted by A_C_Slater

immoratlity is a cinche scientifically at least as far as aging illness etc. Murder, accident et al may be a hard problem.

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08-04-2010 , 07:44 PM

#182

JammyDodga

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Does that chart predict a singularity at a specific point? For all ee know it could be 2000 years away.

Edit: my issue with the chart is that you will have greater knowledge of recent events and therefore more data points closer together, which shapes your chart.

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08-04-2010 , 08:02 PM

#183

Max Raker

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Originally Posted by Karganeth

It's not a reason to laugh at someone. Believing it because he said it is not unreasonable. Not everyone has the time to independently verify every prediction they hear. Would you laugh at someone for believing a report by top scientists that the chances of an asteroid in the next 50 years was 1 in 5? Do you think he should only believe it once he gets out his telecope and calculates the path of the asteroid and earth?

This is such an awful analogy, it doesn't seem like you understand science at all. Nobody can verify Kurzsweil's soothsaying. There is no community of people that have a systematic, simple and verifiable method for predicting technology in the near future like we do for predicting the path of large bodies in gravitational fields.

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08-04-2010 , 08:03 PM

#184

Max Raker

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Originally Posted by JammyDodga

Even more damming, it could have been 2000 years ago.

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08-04-2010 , 08:06 PM

#185

JammyDodga

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True, but there's a lot mote to his book than that chart. I'll ask again, have you read it?

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08-04-2010 , 08:09 PM

#186

JammyDodga

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Originally Posted by Max Raker

Stop feeding him, based on the "smartest person you know" thread, he's either a troll or a moron.

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08-04-2010 , 08:19 PM

#187

Micturition Man

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Whether the criticism is valid for RK I don't know, but technologists and futurists in general do seem to be driven by the same unconscious desire to evade death as most obsessives.

Of course people are free to wonder about whatever they want to, but the implication that technology is the key to the quality of one's life (oh if only we could live to see cybernetics!) seems seriously misguided to me.

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08-04-2010 , 08:19 PM

#188

ZeeJustin

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Originally Posted by JayTee

You could pretty much make this chart at any point in recorded history. Do you not see that?

If this weren't true, his theory would be wrong...

For the most part in the book, he says, "It's not all that meaningful the rate at which things happened 4 billion years ago, but I'm going to show the charts anyway. The logarithmic nature is incredible, even if it's not necessary."

The basis is all very simple: **** accelerates. When **** accelerates, it gets really fast.

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08-04-2010 , 08:20 PM

#189

ZeeJustin

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If you don't think the singularity will happen, ok fine. There are valid arguments to support this.

If you don't think machines will ever be conscious, I strongly disagree, but I can understand how most people would think this is correct.

If you don't think crazy crazy **** (technologically speaking) will happen in the next 40 years, you are wrong, and your viewpoint is indefensible.

Edit: Should have thrown a DUCY in there to get the full Sklansky effect.

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08-04-2010 , 08:27 PM

#190

Max Raker

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Originally Posted by ZeeJustin

If you don't think crazy crazy **** (technologically speaking) will happen in the next 40 years, you are wrong, and your viewpoint is indefensible.

Even if this is true it does not mean that ANY crazy technology **** we can think of is likely to happen.

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08-04-2010 , 08:28 PM

#191

JayTee

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Originally Posted by ZeeJustin

The logarithmic nature is invented by RK. That's really beside the point though. My major complaint isn't that RK's predictions are utter nonsense it's that the the followers of this movement are wrapped up in ideological zeal to the near total exclusion of skepticism.

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08-04-2010 , 08:30 PM

#192

Max Raker

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Originally Posted by JammyDodga

True, but there's a lot mote to his book than that chart. I'll ask again, have you read it?

I've read the other one, Spiritual Machines in the title.

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08-04-2010 , 08:31 PM

#193

Max Raker

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Originally Posted by JammyDodga

Stop feeding him, based on the "smartest person you know" thread, he's either a troll or a moron.

Lol, I didn't realize that this was the same guy. What you say is probably correct, provided he is allowed to be both.

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08-04-2010 , 08:33 PM

#194

vixticator

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How you gonna be immortal inside a cpu (lets put aside that this is impossible) after the Sun goes all supernova?

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08-04-2010 , 08:36 PM

#195

Max Raker

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Originally Posted by vixticator

How you gonna be immortal inside a cpu (lets put aside that this is impossible) after the Sun goes all supernova?

Get away from the sun?

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08-04-2010 , 08:37 PM

#196

vixticator

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Originally Posted by Karganeth

We don't care if it's actually intelligent or not... we simply want it to act intelligently.

Who is we and what are you talking about here? Nobody cares about zombies, "actual intelligence" is the issue.

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08-04-2010 , 08:38 PM

#197

vixticator

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Originally Posted by Max Raker

Get away from the sun?

By 2029?

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08-04-2010 , 08:40 PM

#198

Max Raker

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Originally Posted by vixticator

By 2029?

Is that when the sun is going nova?

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08-04-2010 , 08:45 PM

#199

JayTee

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Originally Posted by ZeeJustin

I'm not knowledgeable enough to comment on the arrival of any particular technology. Certainly technology will continue to advance and that will lead to big changes in human society (as it already has). How much better or worse off society will be for them I don't know. But I suspect it won't resemble anything like the visions of technophobes or Ray Kurzweil.

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08-04-2010 , 08:48 PM

#200

durkadurka33

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Originally Posted by JayTee

I'm not knowledgeable enough to comment on the arrival of any particular technology.

NO ONE IS...this is the point that people conveniently forget. Nutlickers point to his success record but know nothing of survivorship bias. Look back at true technology experts' past predictions and it's lawltastic.

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