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"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? "The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close??

08-03-2010 , 07:30 PM
The problem is NOT that brains are physical and that the issue is a question of whether we can construct a mechanical artificial intelligence: the problem is whether thinking/intelligence/consciousness is computation. This is very far from clear. People far too readily pass over this subtle distinction.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-03-2010 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karganeth
The ability of humans to predict the future isn't always the same. At 1000 AD, things we're not really progressing at all. Little changed over 100 years, it was not particularly difficult to predict this.
This is only true from the technologist's narrow retrospective view. For people living through history there have always been major unforeseeable disruptions - wars, famines, diseases.

It's frankly foolish to make statements like yours about human history. It's not one long steady realization of Moore's law.

But this is somewhat of a digression because although I certainly disagree with the inevitability of the singularity, we can still discuss it as an event that could happen.

Quote:
I'm surprised at the number of people who think that the brain has some non physical properties that make it impossible to simulate. Do people really believe that the brain has some magical properties which mean that a simulated a brain (scanning a brain into a computer using an imaging device then simulating all the particles with a physics engine) would be less intelligent than a real brain?
I did not posit non-physical properties, I posited aspects of the brain's physical properties that may currently elude us and may make a true simulated brain far more difficult than we realize with our current approach to computing.

I believe there are some choice quotes out there from the early Enlightenment about how close they were to creating AI using cogs and wheels. I'll try to find what I'm thinking of later, stuck on my phone now.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-03-2010 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Karganeth
You missed the most important part of your analogy. You do not need to know how a car works to make one.
You must have misread. I said nothing about 'works'.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jb9
You don't have to understand how a car is made to drive one, but you sure as heck need to know how a car is made to make one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Max Raker
Human brains exist and are made of atoms. Unless they are magic, it seems like thinking of them as a type of computer makes sense.
Just being nitty: Thinking of computers as a type of brain makes more sense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ctyri
(and we already know how to make brains... have sex.)
And change a lot of diapers.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-03-2010 , 10:55 PM
Very important point: Kurzweil's upcoming book is How the Mind Works and How to Build One. "Build". Not "simulate".

Strong AI is an engineering problem, not a computational one.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-03-2010 , 11:12 PM
If I dare to post something of an extension of / deviation from the on-going discussion.

I donīt think there will be any dramatic singularity thing. Already now computers are gradually enhancing / taking over the thinking of humans. One example are the weather forecasts, being more and more accurate because of the computers and the simulations. There will be several steps as the computers gradually get smarter and smarter and maybe, if we want it, more conscious and conscious.

Then we may have one (super)computer in the world that can be declared as 'smarter than humans' in many ways. Political / ethical discussions have to be started before that. Just like the superior computers canīt play in the world chess championships, maybe the 'smarter than humans' canīt be allowed to run things for humans, they probably canīt be the ones taking political decisions, for example.

Next (or partly a parallel) step is to get every person to take part of the wonders of super human intellect in their own pc.s (or some analogy of that). Some kind of regulation is necessary though, to keep the humans in charge.

It could be wise not to give the computers consciousness to any greater extent, because then they could claim the right to exist, and humans might eventually get run over by them.

Last edited by plaaynde; 08-03-2010 at 11:27 PM.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-03-2010 , 11:49 PM
"Then we may have one (super)computer in the world that can be declared as 'smarter than humans' in many ways. Political / ethical discussions have to be started before that. Just like the superior computers canīt play in the world chess championships, maybe the 'smarter than humans' canīt be allowed to run things for humans, they probably canīt be the ones taking political decisions, for example."



Who's to say we (whoever that is) will be allowed to dictate what these Machines/Computers/Some Manifestation, can and cannot run??? Just program the three rules of robots and hope for the best that they don't find a loop-hole??
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-03-2010 , 11:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IrOnLaW
Who's to say we (whoever that is) will be allowed to dictate what these Machines/Computers/Some Manifestation, can and cannot run??? Just program the three rules of robots and hope for the best that they don't find a loop-hole??
We, the humans, will be the creatures running things for now. I see your point, but we can try to, and should use, all possible monitoring options. One of those things would be to try to ensure the obeyance of the robotic laws. First of all we have to dedicate lots of human resourses and money to the monitoring of the 'super human' computers. We will have to slow down development of some of the branches. To aid us with the monitoring we will have some independent super computers. Maybe we can allow ourselves to try to have the computers to only work for us and try not to give them a 'life of their own'.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 04:12 AM
This has something to do with the thread, skip to around 10 mins in

John Searle: Beyond Dualism
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 09:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vixticator
This has something to do with the thread, skip to around 10 mins in

John Searle: Beyond Dualism
Appears interesting, listened to the beginning and jumped a little. Over one hour long though, Iīm afraid it became a tl;dl.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plaaynde
We, the humans, will be the creatures running things for now. I see your point, but we can try to, and should use, all possible monitoring options. One of those things would be to try to ensure the obeyance of the robotic laws. First of all we have to dedicate lots of human resourses and money to the monitoring of the 'super human' computers. We will have to slow down development of some of the branches. To aid us with the monitoring we will have some independent super computers. Maybe we can allow ourselves to try to have the computers to only work for us and try not to give them a 'life of their own'.
RK believes that we will be able to control the AI, and have limited issues with them, because before any of this complete singularity takes place, we will be entering into the realm of transhumanism.. Many of us will be both organic and machine, also known as, cyborgs... With nanotechnological helping with medical breakthroughs, then I don't see how we won't end up allowing this tech. to help us improve ourselves, from not only a physical but also mental perspective.. (cognitive abilities, memory storage, processing speed, etc.)
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IrOnLaW
RK believes that we will be able to control the AI, and have limited issues with them, because before any of this complete singularity takes place, we will be entering into the realm of transhumanism.. Many of us will be both organic and machine, also known as, cyborgs... With nanotechnological helping with medical breakthroughs, then I don't see how we won't end up allowing this tech. to help us improve ourselves, from not only a physical but also mental perspective.. (cognitive abilities, memory storage, processing speed, etc.)
I donīt believe so much in the cyborg part. Itīs possible we represent a dead end, and that developing more and more advanced computers-robots will prove far easier. As a big bonus the computers are essentially immortal already, maybe humans practiacally never can achieve that.

If the computers-robots are developed far enough, they could be even "bigger wonders" than humans. That will probably gradually demotivate people to have children of their own, partly because of taking into account the future probable scenarios with eaven more advanced super-computer-robots. As I said in the beginning of this thread, humans could slowly, peacefully, be replaced by computers/robots by decreased birth rate. It could take for example 200-400 years from now, or, when I try to assess it again, maybe 300-500 years. People have their traditions and habits (and also genetics, but how strong?) when it comes to building family, and humans live already now to an age of about 70-80 years.

Last edited by plaaynde; 08-04-2010 at 01:54 PM.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 01:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plaaynde
I donīt believe so much in the cyborg part. Itīs possible we represent a dead end, and that developing more and more advanced computers will prove far easier. As a big bonus the computers are essentially immortal already, maybe humans practiacally never can achieve that. But hey, we can still have fun, as long as it lasts.
Well, maybe we could achieve immortality by uploading our conscienceness into virtual reality in a supercomputer that is already immortal as you said... We could spend our time playing golf on Pebble Beach, hanging out in the world's greatest brothels, or do more philosophizing... The only thing I would worry about is who's behind this computer, and thus pulling the strings.. They could have the power to not only just press the "shut down" key, or maybe upload a virus, and create some sort of eternal personal "hell", who knows... I hope it's run by a benevolent computer, individual, whatever, that wants what's best for each individual and their own specific needs and desires...
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IrOnLaW
Well, maybe we could achieve immortality by uploading our conscienceness into virtual reality in a supercomputer that is already immortal as you said... We could spend our time playing golf on Pebble Beach, hanging out in the world's greatest brothels, or do more philosophizing... The only thing I would worry about is who's behind this computer, and thus pulling the strings.. They could have the power to not only just press the "shut down" key, or maybe upload a virus, and create some sort of eternal personal "hell", who knows... I hope it's run by a benevolent computer, individual, whatever, that wants what's best for each individual and their own specific needs and desires...
Because it's not 'immortal'...
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IrOnLaW
Well, maybe we could achieve immortality by uploading our conscienceness into virtual reality in a supercomputer that is already immortal as you said...
But how could you technically upload your consiciousness into a computer? I mean, realistically? Will there ever be such an interface? I can envision that is not possible, it could very well be a different "person" than you that "gets into the computer".

You have to remember we get to have our life spans, and so will our descendants in flesh and blood. But what if our "descendants" in silicon and plastic will be more attractive to have? You could just develop them according to the needs and wishes of people, the only limitation would be the own imagination (to use an old cliché).

Last edited by plaaynde; 08-04-2010 at 02:50 PM.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by durkadurka33
Because it's not 'immortal'...
Is anything 'immortal'? Aside from some form of jellyfish or a colony of bacteria, which are considered to have "biological immortality". Could a "hive mind" (collective consciousness) act in accordance like that of the colony of bacteria??? Not sure..
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IrOnLaW
Is anything 'immortal'? Aside from some form of jellyfish or a colony of bacteria, which are considered to have "biological immortality". Could a "hive mind" (collective consciousness) act in accordance like that of the colony of bacteria??? Not sure..
Those aren't immortal either...we could nuke the earth and then where would they be?
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 02:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by durkadurka33
Those aren't immortal either...we could nuke the earth and then where would they be?
They might be hiding with water bears... These guys...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_Bears

http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...&ct=clnk&gl=us
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 02:58 PM
Let me state that somehow, someway, anything is possible... Maybe some ominpotent, omniscient entity exists, maybe "they" know of a way to be immortal, at least... Exponential technology is quite an idea to think about.. In a virtual world, and who's to say we aren't living in one right now, the laws of physics coud be altered...
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Micturition Man
This is only true from the technologist's narrow retrospective view. For people living through history there have always been major unforeseeable disruptions - wars, famines, diseases.

It's frankly foolish to make statements like yours about human history. It's not one long steady realization of Moore's law.
So you are saying that the ability of humans to predict the future is always the same? Also I was not simply referring to technology - I even talked about a war, the cold war. Did you even read what I wrote?

Quote:
Originally Posted by durkadurka33
The problem is NOT that brains are physical and that the issue is a question of whether we can construct a mechanical artificial intelligence: the problem is whether thinking/intelligence/consciousness is computation. This is very far from clear. People far too readily pass over this subtle distinction.
Why does that matter? The way a double pendulum acts isn't a computation, but we can stick a simulation of one in a computer to see how it acts. Similarly, we can stick a simulation of a brain (via brain scanning) in a computer to see how it behaves. We don't care if it's actually intelligent or not... we simply want it to act intelligently.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IrOnLaW
Let me state that somehow, someway, anything is possible... Maybe some ominpotent, omniscient entity exists, maybe "they" know of a way to be immortal, at least... Exponential technology is quite an idea to think about.. In a virtual world, and who's to say we aren't living in one right now, the laws of physics coud be altered...
Even contradictions are possible?
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
World English Dictionary
immortal

— adj
1. not subject to death or decay; having perpetual life
When Kurzweil talks about transcending the human body, or Aubrey De Gray talks about ending aging, it's the media that uses the word, "immortal".

No one is talking about immortality. Whatever has been talked about so far in this thread cannot survive a black hole for example.

Side Note:

Spoiler:
Of course there are some out there that think *IF* it is possible to travel faster than the speed of light, then we will be able to harness the energy of entire Solar Systems, and possibly even galaxies, to basically be able to do whatever the f*** we want. MAYBE when we are talking about technology on that scale, we can begin to discuss immortality... MAYBE.


Immortal is a term thrown around in science to grab attention, not to actually be descriptive of anything real or possible.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 06:08 PM
This Singularity gibberish is just another vessel for immortality, like religion. And the adherents appear to defend Singularity in all its wackiness as vehemently as fanatics preaching the coming of The Lord.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by durkadurka33
Even contradictions are possible?
What contradictions?
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 06:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_C_Slater
This Singularity gibberish is just another vessel for immortality, like religion. And the adherents appear to defend Singularity in all its wackiness as vehemently as fanatics preaching the coming of The Lord.
Yes, this is correct, haha..
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote
08-04-2010 , 06:48 PM
How anyone in this forum can view his chart and not be convinced of how disingenuous RK is, is beyond me.


Last edited by JayTee; 08-04-2010 at 06:54 PM.
"The Singularity Is Near" by Ray Kurzweil, How Close?? Quote

      
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