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Originally Posted by Biesterfield
Majjjjor grunch, but looking for a good recommendation on singularity/AI/superintelligence reading. I find this stuff fascinating. Is the book in OP still good?
I've been reading the book. It's very interesting. I'm a grad student right now in machine learning (doing an MS at GATech and probably trying to transfer to a phd program next year), and you can tell he's an extremely sharp and prescient guy who knows a lot about CS. Reading it now, you can see a few cases where he was spot on, and a few where he was wrong.
Most of his critics probably haven't read his book, as a lot of the most common criticisms I hear (progress is a sigmoid function, hardware improves exponentially but knowledge does not) are addressed quite early in a convincing fashion. His arguments on the subject are pretty strong, but what I have issue with is the degree of certainty he gives his forecasts is extremely high. We don't know how difficult the problem is, and while he goes into this issue and I don't know enough about the brain to argue with him (plan on learning more), it just seems hard to believe that one can forecast this with the level of accuracy he claims.
Interestingly, if you look at Google, it seems like from their quotes and actions, a big part of their vision has to do with highly advanced AI
-the ultimate version of search "would be like the mind of God" -Sergey Brin
-"if you had all the world’s information directly attached to your brain, or an artificial brain that was smarter than your brain, you’d be better off.” -Brin again, doesn't that sound like something Kurzweil would say?
-"Google will fulfill its mission only when its search engine is AI-complete." -Larry Page
-if you look at the Deepmind guys (acquihired by Google earlier this year for $500m), you can see cofounder Shane Legg's blog talks a lot about human level AI and beyond, and singularity talks by both founders
-Larry Page helped setup Singularity University