Quote:
Originally Posted by RigMeARiver
I don't 'believe', well, anything really, but I'm optimistic. Knowing how the brain is not hardwired to understand such things as exponential progress, I tend to assume that the correct way to lean is to expect more than what most people assume seems reasonable when it comes to technological advancement.
Some quotes from the early days:
Code:
1958, H. A. Simon and Allen Newell: "within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion" and "within ten years a digital computer will discover and prove an important new mathematical theorem."[60]
1965, H. A. Simon: "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do."
1967, Marvin Minsky: "Within a generation ... the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will substantially be solved."
1970, Marvin Minsky (in Life Magazine): "In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being."[63]
The history of AI research is way, way on the side of people being over-optimistic. What's more, the history of understanding of the complexity of the brain (or anything, really) is way, way on the side of people underestimating the complexity.
Kurzweil himself is starting to lose credibility as his longer term predictions are coming into scope. For example, see his 2009 predictions from
The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999). The non AI ones are quite good - for example, he got some of these close to right, although he's still 5-10 years out for some (from Wikipedia):
* Computers are primarily portable, with people typically having at least a dozen on or around their bodies, networked together with "body LANs"
* Rotating memory (CD-ROMS, Hard disk drives) are on their way out
* The majority of text is generated with speech recognition software
* Learning at a distance, through computers, is commonplace
* Computer-controlled orthopedic devices, "walking machines" are used to help the disabled
* Translating telephones (where each caller is speaking a different language) are commonplace
* Virtually all communication is digital and encrypted (WRONG:
http://xkcd.com/802/)
* The ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion
* Most purchases of books, videos and music are digital downloads
* Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices
* Tele-medicine is widely used, where the physician examines the patient at a distance with virtual reality
Notice a trend? Kurweil is right (or getting close) about uninteresting, non contentious aspects of technology (such as new drive technologies, miniaturization, involvement in everyday life, uptake of digital media, etc), but dead wrong about things that involve overcoming complexity or the beginnings of AI.
The red I've highlighted are predictions where he's failed. And they're ones that involve advances in AI.
Last edited by ManaLoco; 10-20-2010 at 05:28 AM.