Quote:
Originally Posted by durkadurka33
Do you not see why this is NOT an argument? This is exactly what we'd expect from the lucky person who's the output of survivorship bias! Oh, and publishing is easy when it's not peer-reviewed.
I love the statement "I'm totally ignorant regarding how many are out there...but my uninformed intuition should still have merit!"
Survivorship bias is a terrible basis for an argument here.
This criticism of Kurzweil is a very poor and unusual usage of the term.
Survivorship bias normally matters in one of three cases:
1) You have a series of binomial trials and there are a sufficient number of predictions that there is likely a match. (ex: finance scams)
2) You require one success to accept a claim, but the failures are hidden. (medicine)
3) You measure performance for a group based on how the surviving members of the group performs. (both finance and medicine)
Kurzweil's predictions are distinctly different from these cases.
He didn't choose a characterized random process and guess on the outcome.
In short, the sample space of possible outcomes is so large than even a staggering pool of futurist-predictors will fail to guess correctly.
Good Survivorship bias example:
2^n financial analysts making unique sets of predictions regarding whether a stock will either go up or down by the end of a day, for n days, is guaranteed to have 1-super prophet.
Bad Survivorship Bias:
Many political pundits predict what President Obama will say.
One predicts President Obama will use the phrase "eliminate all capital gains taxes on small businesses" in the first 1/4th of his state of the union.
No matter how many pundits you have, the odds of a pundit guessing a sequence of words by pure chance is exceptionally low (1/250,000)^9. There must have been a skill element to the capital-gains claim.
Here's an example Kurzweil prediction:
(made in 1990, predicting 2000s): Telephone calls are routinely screened by intelligent answering machines that ask questions to determine the call's nature and priority.
This unfortunately happened on schedule. Do you really expect us to think we should weight the significance of this prediction with the significance of "Microsoft will go up tomorrow?" Of course not! Kurzweil didn't have a 5-50% of generating a correct prediction when he sat down and started writing.
Do we need a minimum of two futurists to have had one futurist get it correct? This is what your usage of the term survivorship bias implies.
Comparing Kurzweil to a donkament winner / Peter Schiff is a similar to the frequent probabilistic error of thinking that any two outcomes are equally likely.
Kurzweil didn't have a (50%)^n shot of generating his predictions. There is clearly a massive skill element in his forecasting.