Quote:
Originally Posted by durkadurka33
Someone who understands statistics wouldn't be so quick to make such a claim.
Take 10000 people (there are more futurists than that) and have them make 10 predictions/year for 10 years. How many would you expect, by chance alone, to get say 70% correct?
This is completely unfair. There aren't more than 10,000 intelligent qualified people making very specific detailed predictions with lots of evidence to support them.
The real sample size is like 20, and that's exactly why survivorship bias doesn't apply.
FWIW, the term futurist just means someone that acknowledges the exponential rate of growth of information technologies, etc. So yes, there are over 10,000 of those, but that doesn't mean anything.
Edit: I feel I didn't address the Harrington part of your post. For the most part, I agree. However, in this field, only such a small percent of the world will be taken seriously w/ their predictions. So if we're talking about the value of lottery tickets, then RK's ticket is worth 1,000,000 times as much as the 100th best lottery ticket.
Last edited by ZeeJustin; 08-05-2010 at 01:42 AM.