Quote:
Originally Posted by TylerT
This isn't for homework, just my own pondering. Just want to make sure my math isn't defunct.
What is the probability of being dealt at least two clubs in an Omaha poker hand. Assume no dead cards, and assume no flop, turn, or river.
If first card is a club
13/52 * [1 - (39/51 * 38/50 * 37/49) = 1 - (54834/227449) = .76] = .19
If not first, then second card is a club
13/51 * [1 - (38/50 * 37/49) = 1 - (1406/2450) = .43] = .11
If not first or second, then third card is a club
13/50 * 12/49 = .06
1 - [(1-.19) * (1 - .11) * (1- .06)] = .32
Is this correct?
Also, if I were sitting in a game, looking at a board that had exactly 3 clubs on it, then I should change my math to reflect that there were initially only 10 clubs to be dealt, and if I have 2 clubs myself, then 8. Is this also correct? Or should I disregard that and assume that there is a .32 probability that my opponent has at least 2 clubs? That doesn't sound quite correct.
Thanks!
The number of ways to get dealt no clubs is 39c4 (39 cards in the other suits, 4 cards to pick).
The number of ways to get dealt exactly one club is (39c3)*(13c1) (picking 3 cards from a pile of not clubs, and one from a pile of clubs).
The probability of being dealt 2 or more clubs is 1 minus the probability of either of the above happening. There are 52c4 possible omaha hands, so:
So P (>=2 clubs) = 1 - (82251+118807)/270725 =
0.257
If you have 2 clubs, the board has 3 clubs, and you want to know the probability that your opponent has 2 clubs (let's say you have the lowest possible flush), you have to use something called
Bayes' Theorem, which helps you calculate the probability of an event given that some other probabilistic event has occured.
I can't exactly solve this problem now, but I'll try and get back to it tomorrow.