Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh
This problem is driving me crazy.
First note that by symmetry we can assume the earthquake occurred (had midpoint in) the west most half of the area WLOG. Define an earthquakes position (x,y) as its eastmost point and let the point of the area closest to the plant (the south midpoint) be (0,0). Then x in (-10,30) and y in (0,20).
For x < 0, the earthquake is 'within r' if y <= (r-12). These two conditions form a rectangle with area 10(r-12) for 12 <= r <= 32.
For x > 0, we want to find the intersection between a 20x30 rectangle with bottom left corner at (0,0) and the circle of radius r centered at (0,-12). For 12 <= r <= 32, this is the top corner or a quarter circle (it helps to draw it).
This next part is probably possible without a diagram but I'm on phone so here it goes...
Consider the top right quarter of a circle ('quadrant one' in high school trig). Consider a rectangle of height 12 inscribed into this quarter. The area of the quarter circle above this rectangle is the area we wish to find. Now, the diagonal of this rectangle is a radius of our circle, so the rectangle has length sqrt(r^2-144). The diagonal also makes an angle of arccos (12/r) from the vertical axis. So the area above the diagonal is r^2 arccos (12/r) /2. But the area above the diagonal is the area we are after PLUS half the rectangle. So the area we are after is
(1/2) r^2 arccos (12/r) - 6 sqrt (r^2 - 144)
=> the probability that an earthquake is within r of the plant is
(1/800)*(10(r-12) + (1/2) r^2 arccos (12/r) - 6 sqrt (r^2 - 144)
For r = 30:
(1/800) * (450 arccos (2/5) + 36(5-sqrt(21)))