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Old 05-11-2021, 03:21 PM   #101
Aaron W.
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Re: Coin flips only 40% likely to flip heads after a heads.

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Originally Posted by PairTheBoard View Post
The worst part of the data mining software for trading was that the rules it came up with based on historical data were all in a black box. You couldn't examine them to see if there was any plausible reason for why the data might have behaved that way and might be expected to continue in that pattern. It might not really be that helpful if you could do that (theories abound with traders) but it would at least provide a hint of credibility to the operation.
You must hate neural networks, then...
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Old 05-11-2021, 07:31 PM   #102
John21
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Re: Coin flips only 40% likely to flip heads after a heads.

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Originally Posted by PairTheBoard View Post

That's not to say statistical analysis of data can't be useful. In fact, I guess that's the big new thing these days using up tons of processing power in the cloud. Big Data analysis.


PairTheBoard
Yep. First they came for the routine task, non-cognitive workers and I said nothing....
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Old 05-12-2021, 12:30 PM   #103
PairTheBoard
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Re: Coin flips only 40% likely to flip heads after a heads.

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
You must hate neural networks, then...
I understand neural networks are producing excellent results these days, for example with "deep learning". I don't know a lot about them. I believe interest in them took off years ago when the mathematics that modeled them proved they would produce certain results for certain problems under certain conditions.


This looks like a nice article about them:
https://medium.datadriveninvestor.co...s-89fb50622429
From the link:
-----------------------
Most of the times a neural network will give you good results if you are using it for the right problem, but if it doesnít perform well, you will have a lot of trouble finding why it didnít go as expected, especially a Deep Neural network(which will be the case most of the times). For example, if you were trying to predict the type of cancer and you expected the output to be Malignant, but instead you got Benign, it would be quite hard to figure out why the neural network gave such an input, instead a traditional ML algorithm such as a Decision Tree, will be much more easy to interpret.

Example: Banks generally will not use Neural Networks to predict whether a person is creditworthy because they need to explain to their customers why they denied them a loan.

Long story short, when you need to provide an explanation to why something happened, Neural networks might not be your best bet. You simply cannot take a decision just because your computer said so.
=======================

Here's the Wiki:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network


PairTheBoard
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Old 05-12-2021, 09:19 PM   #104
Aaron W.
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Re: Coin flips only 40% likely to flip heads after a heads.

See the bold italicized in the last paragraph.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PairTheBoard View Post
This looks like a nice article about them:
https://medium.datadriveninvestor.co...s-89fb50622429
From the link:
-----------------------
Most of the times a neural network will give you good results if you are using it for the right problem, but if it doesnít perform well, you will have a lot of trouble finding why it didnít go as expected, especially a Deep Neural network(which will be the case most of the times). For example, if you were trying to predict the type of cancer and you expected the output to be Malignant, but instead you got Benign, it would be quite hard to figure out why the neural network gave such an input, instead a traditional ML algorithm such as a Decision Tree, will be much more easy to interpret.

Example: Banks generally will not use Neural Networks to predict whether a person is creditworthy because they need to explain to their customers why they denied them a loan.

Long story short, when you need to provide an explanation to why something happened, Neural networks might not be your best bet. You simply cannot take a decision just because your computer said so.
To go back to your statement:

Quote:
It might not really be that helpful if you could do that (theories abound with traders) but it would at least provide a hint of credibility to the operation.
Credibility is in the results, not the reasons.
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