Yep. Odds are meaningless.

What if we look at it on the atomic scale. Assume there's a minimum number of atoms (N) needed to create something that self replicates. Each atom in N would have to be in the right place at the right time, so theres an x,y, and z coordinate and also a time property.

Lets say, worst case scenario (i.e. random luck) ... we guess the number of atoms in the known universe, and calculate the odds of N of these atoms coming together at a the same place and the same time in their proper (relative to eachother) x,y,z coordinates?

I'm not worried exclusively about Abiogenesis that turns into intelligent life eventually, so it could happen and then immediately die out, thats fine. I think that still counts?

Is this approach at least better than "cant calculate it"?

In my op, I should have said "how lucky did we get" instead of "what are the chances" I think?

The position of one atom is affected by the positions of other atoms. Very complicated.

But we know it happened at least once, no?

For real.

Something happening increases its chances of happening again.

How many googolplexes of googolplexes of opportunities did the chains have to form to establish life? Long shot is not a problem when the opportunities are like this. We can't say that it's 100% because it happened, any more than we can say a coin flip was 100% to be heads after we see the result was heads, can we?

Probability and Information Theory
http://egrcc.github.io/docs/dl/deepl...gbook-prob.pdf


PairTheBoard

I think the univere would have had to get extremely lucky to avoid life. proabbility of life is ~1. We think we're special because we like to.

Chances of human life might be 0 but so is hitting an exact spot on dartboard.

You're right, thanks. So what it does give us is a floor, because we can confidently say that its > 0% We also know its < 100% because it doesn't happen all the time. Our answer lies somewhere in the middle, most likely very near the 0% end of the spectrum But establishing bounds I guess is the first step.

I think you meant intelligent life? Human is the name we gave to a branch of life on earth, no? Or maybe im reading it differently than how you wrote it.

Depends what you mean by intelligent. Maybe the universe will avoid intelligent life

Conciousness - maybe that's a hurdle. Chances of something that can feel pain?

100% because of well, You!

Nature works on repeats. If the conditions cause it to happen, then they will always cause it to happen.

So I forgot my twoplustwo password but somehow managed to reset It thanks to sheer determination...odds?

I suppose its not fair once we determined its what I was designed to do...