Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt R.
You continue to ignore the fact that Pippen and Grant played substantially better in ‘94 than ‘93.
Were they substantially better players or did they look better without a certain someone taking all the shots? Is the main take here that the Bulls did well in 93-94 because Pippen and Grant, who were already 27 the prior season improved substantially? Also both of them played quite a bit less in 93-94 vs 92-93.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt R.
And the Bulls added multiple other players, including several excellent role players.
They lost some players and added some players. As did the Cavs. It's also interesting how these excellent role players only become extremely important during the one season MJ missed, while their contributions are largely ignored during their title runs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt R.
Any particular reason why you’re ignoring that, and you keep doing the thing you say you’re not doing where you’re attributing it all to one player?
I think you're generally missing the point here - the point is not just about the difference, but how it allows us to evaluate their supporting cast. We saw how Lebron's 09-10 supporting cast performed in 10-11 (and beyond) in circumstances not including Lebron. Basically they weren't good. And we also got to see how their careers unfolded after the season. Well that tells the exact same story. We saw how MJ's supporting cast from both three-peats performed in 93-94. They were really really good.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt R.
Candypants, statistics (including point totals) always get MORE meaningful the larger the sample size. Not less. This is why it’s a bad idea to cherry pick a single season or a 20 game sample size. This is like intro to junior high statistics 101.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt R.
A stat that is better predictive of future team performance is going to be better predictive of future team performance compared to the inferior metric regardless of sample size, unless the distributions somehow change (and they don’t in this case; I encourage you to think really hard about this one. Consider it a learning experience.)
So, rather than distracting from the question with your BS: why did you focus on record for the regular season instead of point differential, yet did the opposite for the playoffs? Please tell me this wasn’t a cherry picked stat manipulation candypants. I was rooting for you this time big guy, don’t let me down.
Wow, I though this was pretty obvious but I guess this is too hard for the scientist (and totally not a research coordinator) in the thread. Also, it's interesting that you started this conversation by mocking the use of point differential, and now you seem to be saying that I should be using point differential or net rating everywhere. But I guess that's just how you roll.
Also, I know you're not particularly perceptive, but you don't seem to realize that when I say the Bulls outscored, but lost to the Knicks in 7 games, I'm mentioning both the record and the point differential. So your basic premise is flawed.
Anyway, speaking of learning experience, I still can't get over how you talk about statistics all the time in this thread, even bringing your "scientist" cred (and totally not research coordinator) here and don't understand this. But it's simple - let's say an NBA season was 10,000 games long. Would we still look at the net rating? Probably not. Why is that? Because that's a large enough sample size where we can trust the record as is. And the discrepancy between two is probably attributable more to some teams' tendency to do worse in crunch time or having better garbage-time lineups rather than luck. What about if we have a 3-game series? Does a 2-1 record over 3 games mean a lot? Not really. So would you look at the net rating or point differential? Sure, it's not conclusive, but by virtue of it being more granular, it's a larger sample size. Without boring everyone with notions like stabilization and things like that, it should be self-evident. Which brings me to:
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Originally Posted by fidstar-poker
Speaking of disingenuous. Everyone wants to say how horrible the Jordan-stans are (don't necessarily disagree), but then...
Saying a team that three-peated was "only a 2 win less team the next season" is such a horrible take.
They lost in the second round.
Just a little worse than a 3-peat champion.
Basically comparing this years Knicks to the Warriors Championship team.
Now this is a truly disingenuous take. The Bulls went 55-27 with a net rating of +3.3. That's roughly equivalent to the Nuggets this year, who went 53-29 with a net rating of 3.4. Now, the Nuggets won the #1 seed and made past the second round, so if you think that's unfair, I think the Bucks last season, who went 51-31 with a +3.3 net rating and lost in the 2nd round to the eventual finalists fit the bill, though they had a worse record.
In fact the difference between the Bucks in 20-21 and the Bucks in 21-22 is probably the closest comp in general to the difference between the Bulls in 92-93 and 93-94. The Bucks went from winning the title (against the Suns in 6 games, as did the Bulls) to bouncing out in the 2nd round in 7 games against the Finalists.