With Kyrie & this year's #1 pick & a good amount of cap flexibility in '14-'15, and the legacy impact of winning a ring in Cleveland that LeBron will pretend not to care about, and the inevitable necessity of...



...it's a pretty good option.

People still expecting LeBron to be even in contention for best player ITL at 37 are being pretty ridiculously optimistic IMO. Jordan was 34 when Malone passed him for best player in the league. He was 38 when he played for the Wizards. Top ever PERs by a 37 year old:

Karl Malone: 24.7
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 22.9
John Stockton: 22.4
Robert Parish: 20.6
Steve Nash: 20.3

So even if Bron's the best 37-year old of all-time, he'll still be pretty unlikely to win MVP.

Seems pretty wrong. Jordan/LeBron/Kobe/Wade/McGrady/Iverson/etc. all had seasons at 24/25 that could be argued to be their best.

I think people are assuming that the bridge isn't burned (given it's lebron, reasonable) and that LBJ would switch teams again in pursuit of rangz (also reasonable).

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I don't see how people can seriously argue that a guy who regularly doesn't show up in nba finals games is in contention to be the goat. it's not like he runs super-cold from the field and his team loses but contends. his shooting 0 FTs in game 3 screams idgaf. quitting at the end of games screams idgaf. and if there were any doubt, MIA after a loss in the playoffs is MASSIVELY FREE MONEY.

if someone is the goat you should never, ever be able to question their WIM.

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and I know the advanced stats guys will ignore this again, but with regard to the holy grail advanced stats:

HEISENBERG

it's pretty clear imo that players are now tailoring their games to adv stats. MJ's 32-8-8 season was his year-long effort to satisfy doug collins and critics who claimed he should get his teammates more involved. once everyone stfu he got back to the business of trying to win titles.

Tons of people peak at 24. It's one of the most common ages to peak at. LeBron and Kareem both probably had their best seasons at 24 and T-Mac and CP3 both peaked at 23.

http://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/27/sp...ity-caper.html


Middle of a playoff series, team down to a rival, and MJ can't contain his gambling habit in order to both get good rest and to set a good example for all his teammates? Imo that shows way more lack of WIM than anything Lebron has ever done.

Well then!

iggyyyyyy

also t-mac and cp3 were both clearly set back by injury

LOL Dave Berri has shown players produced in WP at 24-25. Searching APBR WS may peak at 26. I don't remember where I have read it, but APM metrics peak later than box score metrics.

Reading your projections, Dean, I think that you're actually closer to my position than Clark's. Do you realize that his position (which he defended and wasn't supposed to be hyperbole) is that LeBron is >50% to be the best player in the league at 37 years old? Your position above seems more like a top 5 or worse player at 37, but not surprising if T3 or T4.

Also, your player examples support LeBron declining A LOT over the next 7-9 years. Garnett peaked at 27-28, as the best player in the league. How good would you say that he is today, at 36? Kobe peaked around 27, as arguably a T3 player. How good would you say he is today, at 34, even after German super-PEDs? Pierce had some erratic years, peaking somewhere between 24-30, as arguably a T10 player. How good would you say that he is today at 35? Duncan peaked around 25 as arguably TBPITL or T2, and maintained there or close for several years. How good would you say that he is today at 36?

The point is that all of these guys are still really good, and have been very impressive in their 30's, and yet they have all fallen off HARD by 35-36. Even if LeBron didn't exist, are any of them even close to sniffing #1? Or even T3-5?

Of course, LeBron's peak is higher, and he may maintain this level for a while. But it is likely that he has been peaking now, at 24-28, stays close to this level for a couple years, them starts declining. By 35-37, he will still probably be a T10 player, but to say that he's >50% to be #1 is kinda insane.

this is utter nonsense. re the bolded: are we talking about a bunch of hs kids now? cmon man. "set a good example" for professional athletes playing in the conference finals. gimme a ****ing break. "set a good example." that's funny. i'll cut you some slack on that one if you're raising young kids -- I could see how the idea is on your mind.


from the article itself:

"After practice on Monday, he checked into Bally's Grand at 5:07 that afternoon according to a hotel employee, checked out at 11:05 P.M., was seen in the casino as late as 2:30 A.M., returned to New York and was on the Garden court for a midmorning shootaround, 10 hours before Tuesday night's game."

you really think this is a big deal? a sensationalist article by the opponent's local newspaper during a playoff series against a thoroughly familiar opponent (when the media is diligently searching for a new story and the entire city of NY is looking for some sign that the NYK won't be MJ's bitch yet again).

I mean, listen to the pussy who wrote the article:

"But with more rest, might he have scored 46 points? With more rest, might he have scored more than 11 points in the second half, especially in the final minutes when the Bulls needed every basket? His teammates and his coaches will always wonder."

is it really worse for him to be sitting in a limo and at a BJ table than in his room watching movies?

debating what players should do in their free time off the court is pretty dumb imo. you want your guys ready to answer the bell and battle for 4 quarters, i.e., WIM -- something lebron clearly doesn't always do.

he was back for the shootaround 10 HOURS BEFORE THE GAME. at which point he practiced, went back to his room and rested.

how much ****ing rest does a player need?

and now that you mention it:

WHAT'S LEBRON'S EXCUSE???

I spent a decent amount of time looking at great players at age 24 vs later and very very few peak there, so yeah. Generally speaking you can bet a player will be better at 26-28 than 24; I'm guessing in instances where this isn't the case are almost all injury related.

^ scary fanboi itt

Let's say if Lebron falls like Jordan did.

At 32-#1 (29.4 Per/58.2% TS%)--actually 2nd ITL in Per to Drob (effectively tied)
At 33-#1 (27.8 Per/56.7%)--2nd in the league in per again)
At 34-#4 (Shaq, Drob, Karl all potentially higher, 25.2 Per, 53.7% TS%)
35-37 skipped years

So Lebron at 32 could have a similar PER, but by 34 could be top 5 if he follows MJ.

Karl had a 27.1 Per at 36 was 2nd in the league to Shaq at 30.1.

LeBron wants to be liked.
MJ only wants to win.

so how many games has lebron played poor in this finals? i just want to understand your rationale.

in my opinion he played in 1 really bad game, game 3. in games 1 and 2 he was passive but still played really well. game 4 he finally got aggressive on O when the paint was cleared out.

i'm looking at his entire body of work, not just this year's finals. and it can't be debated: he's already failed to answer the bell and/or given up more times to this point in his career than MJ ever did.

Asdf, you never answered my question. What is your exact definition of GOAT?

And your reply doesn't really address my points. Yes, I understand variance. You're still talking about evaluating/projecting best peak player, even though you claimed that wasnt your precise definition. So you kinda need to do that, to move forward.

My point was that, regardless of sample size, you need to be more than just the best peak player for a short period of time (no matter how good), in order to be GOAT.

Even in your silly Superman example, you said that you could definitively proclaim him GOAT after 1 second of playing. Really? So if he encountered Kryptonite, and then was a mediocre 15/5/5 player for 10 years, he still would have been GOAT? In tennis, if Superman played 1 French Open match (and demonstrated whatever you think makes an absurd peak) and then retired, would he be The Greatest French Open Player of all Time? Over Nadal, a mere mortal, but one who has won 8 French Open titles, with a 59-1 record?!

Sorry, not wasting anymore time on you wrt to this topic. You're obviously not going to get it anytime soon, and it's just going to end up with "lol Nod88" like the other thread.

Fwiw, this wasn't true, early in his career at least. In 88-89, for example, he could be seen going to the scorer's table to see how many more rebounds/assists he needed for a triple double until the league ordered the scorer to stop giving out the information during the game. This is definitely more of a "me" attitude than a win at all costs mentality.

Now, this next part is a bit of conjecture on my part, but I seriously doubt if you told MJ during his last Wizards year that he could make the playoffs, but he would average 15ppg instead of 20 (which would drop him below Wilt in the all time PPG list) I sincerely doubt that he would have done it.

lebron is about to finish his 10th season, i think thats enough longevity to be considered. jordan only played 13 with the bulls.

Especially considering that only 11 were full seasons.

What, you really think it's questionable that LeBron had his best season at 24?

Regular season
3054 MP, 31.7 PER, 20.3 WS

Postseason
41.4 MPG, 37.4 PER, .399 WS/48

Find me another season by anyone as good as that one combining regular season and postseason. You can't do it. And you can't tell me he's better now just bc he's ranging when he's putting up 20 PPG in the Finals on worse efficiency than he averaged 35/8/9 on back in 2009.

Welcome back bro

Oops slow pony hes already banned

Eagerly awaiting next TWOG gimmick