Quote:
Originally Posted by Phildo
not really the nfl draft is a giant variance fest and people always overrate the first few picks/highest rated prospects. it's not the mlb or nba where almost all the established stars were taken at the top of the first round.
Bingo.
Do you know the chances that the next player drafted at any position is better than the previous player drafted in that same year? In other words, how often the 4th DB taken in the NFL Draft is better than the 3rd DB taken, etc.
48%
FOURTY-EIGHT PERCENT!
In other words, performance in the NFL is very hard to predict. So then the optimal drafting strategy is to trade down, acquire many picks in order to “increase your tickets in the lottery.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by ut2010
Fwiw The skins missed out on rodgers by one pick. I wonder if they would be any good right now if they offered the packers 2 1st and a second to move up one spot that year.
You know what results-oriented means right?