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08-26-2012 , 05:20 PM
Phildo with Ryan Tannehill or Rex Grossman and a few picks vs RGIII should be fun.
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08-26-2012 , 06:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phildo
when none of the best 3 quarterbacks in the nfl have been drafted in the top 2/3/4/5/whatever then the presumption that you need a top 2/3/4/5/whatever pick to draft an elite qb is perhaps not correct
This opinion is the nut low. I realize you're trolling but there are people that really think that way.
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08-26-2012 , 06:29 PM
not really the nfl draft is a giant variance fest and people always overrate the first few picks/highest rated prospects. it's not the mlb or nba where almost all the established stars were taken at the top of the first round.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ut2010
1st round very good/elite QBs-Eli, Peyton, Stafford, Big Rape, Cutler, Rivers, Vick, Rodgers, Ryan, Cam
2nd round-Brees
3rd round-Schaub
6th round-Brady
Undrafted-Romo

Feel free to add to it.
oic we have changed the parameters from a top 2 pick (which very few nfl teams will have over a given time period) to a first round pick (which every nfl team will have multiples of over a given time period). yeah that doesn't affect anything
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08-26-2012 , 07:00 PM
Yes, an elite QB has been found outside the top two picks in the draft. Csb.
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08-26-2012 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phildo
not really the nfl draft is a giant variance fest and people always overrate the first few picks/highest rated prospects. it's not the mlb or nba where almost all the established stars were taken at the top of the first round.

oic we have changed the parameters from a top 2 pick (which very few nfl teams will have over a given time period) to a first round pick (which every nfl team will have multiples of over a given time period). yeah that doesn't affect anything
lol you realize 11th overall is the lowest pick of the 1st rounders

Yeah totes man the draft is a joke. Teams should just take 5 QB's in the 6th round every year. Eventually they'll find the next Tom Brady amirite?
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08-26-2012 , 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ut2010
Yes, an elite QB has been found outside the top two picks in the draft. Csb.
you seem to think i'm arguing that you shouldn't draft a qb with a top pick when i'm actually arguing that you shouldn't trade 2 firsts and a second to move up 4 spots to draft anyone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tweedybirdd
lol you realize 11th overall is the lowest pick of the 1st rounders

Quote:
Yeah totes man the draft is a joke. Teams should just take 5 QB's in the 6th round every year. Eventually they'll find the next Tom Brady amirite?
i think it's the people who are advocating giving away tons of draft picks for 1 prospect who seem to think the draft is a joke past the first couple of highly rated prospects
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08-26-2012 , 07:43 PM


trade tho
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08-26-2012 , 07:47 PM
whoops lolme forgot about Rodgahhhs

I don't think anyone here believes the draft is a joke outside the first round.
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08-26-2012 , 09:35 PM
I mean, it's both obvious that major finds can be found in the late rounds, and also that you are far more likely to find a great player with an early pick than a late one. It's also obvious that a franchise QB is really important to success. Surely there's a way we can have a discussion about what that's worth without being a collection of *******s.
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08-26-2012 , 09:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nath
I mean, it's both obvious that major finds can be found in the late rounds, and also that you are far more likely to find a great player with an early pick than a late one. It's also obvious that a franchise QB is really important to success. Surely there's a way we can have a discussion about what that's worth without being a collection of *******s.
Welcome to 2p2. You must be new here.
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08-26-2012 , 10:13 PM
Fwiw The skins missed out on rodgers by one pick. I wonder if they would be any good right now if they offered the packers 2 1st and a second to move up one spot that year.
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08-26-2012 , 10:14 PM
Lolskins
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08-26-2012 , 10:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterwolves
Fwiw The skins missed out on rodgers by one pick. I wonder if they would be any good right now if they offered the packers 2 1st and a second to move up one spot that year.
Skins had Jason Campbell ranked above Rodgers.
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08-26-2012 , 10:33 PM
Well throw that in my face.
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08-26-2012 , 10:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tweedybirdd
Skins had Jason Campbell ranked above Rodgers.
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08-31-2012 , 09:52 AM
That had to be when that pos Vinny Cerrato was GM.

****.

I just cannot feel comfortable with anything the Redskins do when D. Snyder is the owner of the team. The Redskins = The Mets of the NFL
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08-31-2012 , 10:02 AM
Skins would have prob figured out a way to screw with Rodgers' early development, I wouldn't get too excited playing that "what if" game
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08-31-2012 , 10:07 AM
^^^^^ True. It doesn't change the fact that Cerrato & Snyder are pieces of **** for ruining the Redskins for many, many years.
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09-02-2012 , 08:52 PM
God bless 'em, imo?
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09-04-2012 , 01:00 AM
Relevant links on the trade with, y'know, some actual data and analysis. The analysis is slightly flawed in that it doesn't take into account the rookie wage scale, replacement level players, or analyze just the QB position, but the point remains that the 'Skins gave up a king's ransom for a player that has a very non-trivial chance of being a bust.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...t-griffin-iii/

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpre...ade-for-rgiii/

Quote:
For the Redskins to get the equivalent value from RGIII as they spent acquiring him, he must produce at least as much as Tom Brady.
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09-04-2012 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phildo
not really the nfl draft is a giant variance fest and people always overrate the first few picks/highest rated prospects. it's not the mlb or nba where almost all the established stars were taken at the top of the first round.
Bingo.

Do you know the chances that the next player drafted at any position is better than the previous player drafted in that same year? In other words, how often the 4th DB taken in the NFL Draft is better than the 3rd DB taken, etc.

48%

FOURTY-EIGHT PERCENT!

In other words, performance in the NFL is very hard to predict. So then the optimal drafting strategy is to trade down, acquire many picks in order to “increase your tickets in the lottery.”


Quote:
Originally Posted by ut2010
Fwiw The skins missed out on rodgers by one pick. I wonder if they would be any good right now if they offered the packers 2 1st and a second to move up one spot that year.
You know what results-oriented means right?
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09-04-2012 , 01:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biesterfield
Bingo.

Do you know the chances that the next player drafted at any position is better than the previous player drafted in that same year? In other words, how often the 4th DB taken in the NFL Draft is better than the 3rd DB taken, etc.

48%

FOURTY-EIGHT PERCENT!

In other words, performance in the NFL is very hard to predict. So then the optimal drafting strategy is to trade down, acquire many picks in order to “increase your tickets in the lottery.”



You know what results-oriented means right?
Biesterfield, I am going to go out on a huge limb and ask whether you are a Pats fan?
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09-04-2012 , 01:33 AM
No Bears fan. Before you ask, yes I do think they gave up too much to get Cutler. However trading for an already proven commodity >> trading for a rookie. If Cutler gets two firsts and a third is RG3 really worth three firsts and a second?
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09-04-2012 , 01:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biesterfield
No Bears fan. Before you ask, yes I do think they gave up too much to get Cutler. However trading for an already proven commodity >> trading for a rookie. If Cutler gets two firsts and a third is RG3 really worth three firsts and a second?
If Cutler has an elite season and RG3 shows elite potential, then yes, they are worth it.
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09-04-2012 , 01:52 AM
So therefore you must handicap their chances of having an "elite season"

And anyone who knows RG3 will be elite is clearly a liar
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