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Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals

12-02-2008 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
Home team is allowed to pick. LSU usually picks white.
Road teams must approve the home team wearing white. Spurrier has forced LSU to wear purple in the past.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pvn
Emotional platitudes.



Yes, exactly. That's a big part of his effectiveness, it always takes (at least) two guys to block him. Cf. Loyola putting two guys on Curry all night. Clearly, a winning strategy.



Which was my point. One of the tools the "different team" has been leaning on heavily is basically off the table.
We're totally transformed since Ole Miss but it's not like we were bad. We gave them the game in every way possible. It could easily have been a 30 point blowout.

Actually, 2 center/guards are always doubling a big nose tackle in our offense. Has nothing to do with that they have to double him. I'm not really sure how we will address him pass blocking, but I think we'll be ok. What are you trying to say, that he is going to dominate regardless? I'd say it's going to be pretty close to a wash. The Pouncey's are really good. We run right off the center a lot of plays so we will be trying to seal Cody to a side quite a bit.

Just because Tebow doesn't run as much doesn't mean he won't run. That's just because I feel like we're going to be throwing the ball a lot early. Cody doesn't negate Tebow's running game. Maybe he does to a degree, but that's what we're going to find out. Tebow not running as much may not have anything to do with Cody. Florida could throw the ball a lot because they feel like that's a better advantage, especially with Percy not playing.

I really don't know what's going to happen in a number of areas, especially in a game of this magnitude.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Number27
I disagree. For the team they have he's very good. He doesn't turn the ball over and makes smart plays.

If you look at Florida they are +21 in turnovers this year and that's a huge part of what drives their offensive production. Alabama isn't going to turn the ball over a lot.

Another thing to consider is that the only game Florida had where the score was in doubt going into the 4th quarter was against Ole Miss and they lost. If the game is within 7 points at the half I like Alabama a lot.

Edit: http://www.al.com/sports/birminghamn...l=2&thispage=1

Good article about Will Muschamp talking to the Alabama DC about how to stop Florida. As the Auburn DC he held Florida to 17 in 06 & 07 and won both games.

What quarterback WOULDN'T be 'a good fit' for that team besides awful players like Jarrett Lee, Kevin Craft, Nate Longshore, etc.

Do you realize how easy it is to be a 'game manager' quarterback and make easy plays all game and throw it away any time you're in trouble? Any reasonable QB could do that, and do a better job of it than JPW. The only reason they don't is because their teams actually need them to make plays in order to win, which Bama doesn't/hasn't.


Any decent QB > JPW.

It's not very hard to throw 19 passes a game, 2/3 of which are off of playaction or dinks and dunks to the RBs and TEs and the others are to ****ing Julio Jones in single coverage.

I could name 50 quarterbacks that would be better at Alabama than JPW. Don't make me do it, because I will definitely do it and waste half an hour of my time at work.






EDIT: I know I am an SEC hater, but don't take this as more hate on the SEC because I see it as evidence as to how good Bama is and how ****ing unbelievably well coached they are that Saban can make people actually think that JPW isn't horrible.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
He called Neu and asked him if it was OK. UCLA and UCS used to do this back in the day, I still remember looking at old programs and being like 'WTF could they not afford away whites?' before someone told me that it was a UCLA/USC tradition.

I assume Pete/Neu will talk to the Pac-10 and agree to always wear colors every single year, and to forgo the tiemout penalties. I assume the Pac-10 will agree.
It seems ridiculous you have the option of giving up timeouts, talk about disrespect.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The4thFilm
It seems ridiculous you have the option of giving up timeouts, talk about disrespect.
Well, I also wonder what would happen if two teams with similar uniforms (Navy/ND, Cal/WVU, Iowa State/USC, etc.) played each other and one team who was a huge dog spent the entire week practicing against each other while wearing the same uni's, and then sacrificed the TO's to play in identical uni's, and see if they could cause the other team to make more mistakes and somehow get lucky and win.

It also seems that teams like ND would be less dependent on uni's than teams that pass a lot, so there could be an advantage there too.

I feel like the refs would probably force them to change, and that the two TO thing only affects games where the home unis look decidedly different.


On a separate note, I remember being blown away that Nevada was able to wear colored jerseys that were a super light silver.

They wore Navy/silver/navy against a team wearing navy/white/navy. I couldn't tell them apart, it was ridiculous.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 03:38 PM
the Illinois Wisconsin bball game of 04-05 (IIRC) where Illinois wore Orange and Wisconsin wore Red was simply awesome

just kidding... it was ok courtside, but I heard it was so horrible on tv that most turned off the game
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 04:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
What quarterback WOULDN'T be 'a good fit' for that team besides awful players like Jarrett Lee, Kevin Craft, Nate Longshore, etc.

Do you realize how easy it is to be a 'game manager' quarterback and make easy plays all game and throw it away any time you're in trouble? Any reasonable QB could do that, and do a better job of it than JPW. The only reason they don't is because their teams actually need them to make plays in order to win, which Bama doesn't/hasn't.

EDIT: I know I am an SEC hater, but don't take this as more hate on the SEC because I see it as evidence as to how good Bama is and how ****ing unbelievably well coached they are that Saban can make people actually think that JPW isn't horrible.
The difference is that if you completely sell out to stop the run JPW can go off on you for 300+ and a couple of scores. See: UT last year (32 of 46 for 346 and 3td's).

There's a reason everyone doesn't put 9 in the box against Alabama. It's because his career passer rating is 124.2 and he's very accurate inside of twenty yards.

He's obviously not a top ten quarterback in terms of NFL prospects; but to say he's somehow bad or horrible is just plain wrong.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Number27
There's a reason everyone doesn't put 9 in the box against Alabama. It's because his career passer rating is 124.2 and he's very accurate inside of twenty yards.
a passer rating of 124.2 would rank him in the 60s this season.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Number27
The difference is that if you completely sell out to stop the run JPW can go off on you for 300+ and a couple of scores. See: UT last year (32 of 46 for 346 and 3td's).

There's a reason everyone doesn't put 9 in the box against Alabama. It's because his career passer rating is 124.2 and he's very accurate inside of twenty yards.

He's obviously not a top ten quarterback in terms of NFL prospects; but to say he's somehow bad or horrible is just plain wrong.
Just plain wrong in what way? John Parker Wilson is better at quarterback than you or me, but that's about it. He's a below average NCAA quarterback, and when compared with the rest of his team is 'horrible' and is by far the weakest link. He wouldn't start for 2/3 of the schools in the country, but he's luckboxed his way into starting at the #1 team.

You can take it from me, who's played quarterback, you can take it from scouting reports, from game film, or from the stats which you just cited as somehow positive. Passer rating of 124 and accurate inside twenty yards? That's like saying "this power forward isn't horrible, he makes almost all of his layups."


Furthermore, "Passing Efficiency" is so overrated in this spot. When you throw like so few passes, and they're all off of play action or they are all designed dinks and dunks your efficiency is guaranteed to be high. And despite being in this incredibly advantageous position, JPW still sucks.

Or, I suppose you are going to disagree and tell me that Pat White really was the 9th best passer in the nation last year? Because that's where he ranked.

Not to mention that despite throwing only easy passes and play actions, and despite playing on a team far superior to most of its opponents, JPW ranks 59th in the country in passing efficiency and has exactly 9 touchdowns. To put that into perspective, Case Keenum and David Johnson have each scored 7 touchdowns. In one game.

And don't give me that "SEC defenses" bit, because (a) SEC defenses are trash this year and (b) SEC offenses are so inept, that you get like an extra 2-3 posessions per game. (The opposite happens in the B-12, where you get tons of possessions because teams are scoring so fast)

There are at least fifty D-1 quarterbacks who would make Alabama a better team than they are with JPW. I'll use 50 since I can state that with confidence. I wouldn't be surprised if there were actually 60-70 QB's better than JPW when you look at all of the backups. Counting their injured guys, there are literally five players at Oregon that I think are better QB's than JPW. What about Texas A&M? They're one of the worst BCS teams in the country, and I think you would be hard pressed to find anyone who really knows football and would take JPW over Jerrod Johnson or Steven McGee.

To use a random example, look at the MAC... I would take the following QBs over JPW:
Nate Davis
Dan LeFevour
Drew Willy
Tim Hiller
Boo Jackson
Tyler Sheehan
Adam DeMichael

(in that order)

Hell, I might even think about taking Harnish or Edelman, although I don't really know how well Edelman would fit into the system.

In other words, I think that like 8 out of the 12 MAC quarterbacks would make Alabama better than JPW.

Just 'cuz I'm on a roll now, in the Pac-10 I would take Sanchez, Mustain, Masoli, Riley, Tuitama, Carpenter, Roper, and Darren Thomas over JPW, and this is the Pac-10's worst quarterbacking group in recent history.




Going 12-0 with this guy as your quarterback = Saban is a ****ing Wizard.

Last edited by GoldenBears; 12-02-2008 at 05:18 PM.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
Home team is allowed to pick. LSU usually picks white.
wat

I don't know what the rule is but I'm pretty sure this isn't it, because LSU does wear purple jerseys at home for at least some non-conference games and I'm not sure why they would if they had the option not to.

In SEC games, the rules (whatever they are) are a bit different, the road team has the option to deny LSU the white jerseys. Spurrier has done it, as has vandy.

I believe this is different in conference play only because I assume that if the rule was the same for non-conference play LSU would make such approval part of the deal to schedule those teams, yet most of the time you see them in the (horribly ugly) purple jerseys, it's against non-conference pushovers.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
EDIT: I know I am an SEC hater, but don't take this as more hate on the SEC because I see it as evidence as to how good Bama is and how ****ing unbelievably well coached they are that Saban can make people actually think that JPW isn't horrible.
JPW isn't horrible. He's actually a lot better than I was expecting him to be this year (my expectation was horrible). He's better than, say, Freddie Kitchens in 1997 (Bama won the west that year).
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 05:54 PM
The final score of the SEC championship game will tell you alot.

If it's a 40-30 game or something like that Florida will have won it.

Alabama wants a 21-17 type game.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pvn
JPW isn't horrible. He's actually a lot better than I was expecting him to be this year (my expectation was horrible). He's better than, say, Freddie Kitchens in 1997 (Bama won the west that year).
I was just about to come into this thread to post this...

Maybe "horrible" is the wrong word. Horrible should be reserved for players who actually HURT their team with stupidity and errors. Guys like Nate Longshore, Reggie Ball, Sean Glennon, etc.

JPW is more like "a complete zero." He contributes nothing. He completes most of the extremely easy passes that he is asked to, and he tries to avoid disastrous mistakes.

Notice, however, that there is a difference between a game manager and a complete zero. There are 50+ quarterbacks in the NCAA, who were they in JPW's position, could do everything that he does, but better. They could complete MORE of the easy passes, could complete slightly more difficult passes, could avoid more sacks, could be more of a threat to run, could spread out the defense more, etc. all the while without throwing picks or creating turnovers.

Since most of these QB's play for teams that are not Alabama, they're asked to do much more. And it's not even like JPW is so awesome at avoiding mistakes. He's thrown 9 TD's and 5 picks. By contrat, Tebow is 25-2, Bradford is 46-6 and lots of guys like Lefevour and Willy are 19-5 and 22-5 etc.

Hell, even ****ing Colin Kaepernick, a glorified running back who also happens to throw sometimes is 13-5 with an efficiency of 132. (and has thrown 70 more passes)

Last edited by GoldenBears; 12-02-2008 at 06:07 PM.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 06:20 PM
I'm just not buying that Oklahoma could ever lose such an important game that its heavily favored in.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
Counting their injured guys, there are literally five players at Oregon that I think are better QB's than JPW.
Wait wat? We only have 4 QBs on the roster; how do we have 5 that are better than JPW? Chris Harper has officially been converted into a wide receiver and will never take a snap from a center again afaik.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 06:35 PM
Florida v Alabama: Key to the Game
So, I think it's time to spice up this blog a bit. The best way I can do it is by doing actual game analysis ahead of time. I'm better than the talking heads, so I should show that off. Anyway, the SEC title game should be a great one. Let's start with that.
Sagarin overall/predictor:
Florida 91.94/100.35
Alabama 90.27/89.43
Massey combined ratings:
#3 Florida v #4 Alabama
Florida is #1 with +1.75 turnovers per game. Alabama has +0.75 turnovers per game.
I put that altogether for one baseline of the difference between the teams. Massey has it about a point. Sag overall has it about 2 points. Sag predictor has it 11 points. However, the predictor needs a turnover adjustment, which puts it about 7 points. Combined, I have it a 3.5 point edge to Florida.

Now, let's look at a second baseline based on yards per play. From a brute averaging (which is OK this late in the year with the number of similar competition), I have Bama gaining 4.3 ypc and 6.6 yppa. I have Florida putting together 4.6 ypc and 6.8 yppa this Saturday. Combined, this adds up to a 4 point edge to Florida. *Note that my actual method is much more in-depth, but I don't want to give it away for free. The sophisticated outcome is rarely more than a point off from the brute method.

Hmmmm... both baselines have the game much lower than the 9.5/10 point spread we see right now. We should load up on Bama, right?
Well, not so fast. Those baseline numbers don't account for turnover differences and special teams. Florida will gain 4 yards per punt and 2 yards more per kickoff on average. That is not huge, but adds up to another point IMO. Then, we can expect more turnovers from Bama. Florida has better sack numbers, while both teams are very close in overall tfl and sacks allowed. That should lead to more turnovers in the general case. However, we also see that Bama's offense is more one-dimensional with only the 52nd best pass efficiency. Florida's balance (balance being able to have success running or throwing) makes it tougher for the defense to create more turnovers on first and second downs. Alabama also is more likely to turn it over on 3rd down. One way we see this is Florida's pass efficiency. Another way we see this is Alabama is much more likely to be in 3rd and long situations. I'll get to that in a second. So, we're getting closer in adjusting the baseline to the actual spread.

The first key is Florida's offense is more balanced in that it has a good rushing game and a very effective pass game. Alabama, on the other hand, has a great rushing game and a mediocre pass game. Both teams have great pass and rush defenses. The weak point is Bama's passing attack. Ironically, this leads to the second key: Florida will have more success running the ball on first downs and in power situations. I looked at both Florida and Alabama's success playing against top rushing defenses that they had in common: Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU. In power run situations (see Pro Football Prospectus for what this is), Florida was successful 13 of 18 times, 72.22%, while Alabama was successful 13 of 21 times, 61.90%. On first downs, Florida was successful running 25 of 43 times, 58.14%, while Alabama was successful running 27 of 57 times, 47.37%. Furthermore, Saban is far too conservative in fourth down situations. Going over the Tide's play-by-plays for the year, I see Saban consistently making the old-school conservative fourth down calls. That is pretty ridiculous, IMO, seeing the Tide with a 61.90% successful power run stat against the best 3 rush defenses they faced. Gah!

What this all adds up to is Florida continuing many more drives for larger scores. Florida will be in better spots on 2nd and 3rd down. The Gators will convert in those spots more often. When they do not convert on third, the Gators are more likely to make the better 4th down decision. On the other hand, Bama will be forced into more 3rd and long situations, which is their weak point. I see Florida being quite a bit more successful at maintaining drives.

Furthermore, Florida is more capable of the big play as well. While I love arenas at Bama, the Gators have playmaker after playmaker after playmaker. There are more 30+ yard plays out of the Gators and their defense is slightly better at preventing the big play.

Now, if I were to bet this game based purely on what the crude numbers show, I'd be with Bama. I'd expect a 28-21 Florida win as the final. However, digging further into what sustains drives and who is likely to have the outlier plays, I actually like Florida against the spread. I see this game going down as a Florida win, 37-16.

Check at the end of the game to see 1) the running success on first down, 2) the running success in power situations, and 3) the number of big plays (20yd+ plays, 45yd+ returns, and turnovers) to see if my keys hold true.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 06:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobJoeJim
Wait wat? We only have 4 QBs on the roster; how do we have 5 that are better than JPW? Chris Harper has officially been converted into a wide receiver and will never take a snap from a center again afaik.
I wasn't counting Harper, he is/was so awful.


1. Costa (still counts, since the whole argument is who would be best for the 2008 season if they were to replay it, since nobody would actually trade quarterbacks in week 14 at 12-0)
2. Masoli
3. Roper
4. Thomas
5. Any Oregon player wearing Dennis Dixon's old jersey.


I am good at maths, ldo.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 06:40 PM
MT2R do you get all of your stats from cfbstats/somewhere else, or do you just mine them from play by plays?
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 07:00 PM
I mine them from play-by-plays

I have no life

I would use some scripts, but play-by-plays have too many mistakes in formatting
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
5. Any Oregon player wearing Dennis Dixon's old jersey.


Fair 'nuff.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 08:19 PM
For any teams in search of a new head coach, it should be noted that Chip Kelly is no longer on the list of candidates. Oregon just announced a succession plan that locks him up as the future Head Coach, at such time as our Athletic Director decides to step down (at which point Mike Bellotti will be promoted to AD).

http://www.goducks.com/ViewArticle.d...ATCLID=3626601
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 08:29 PM
People are talking about Bill Stewart to WVU AD and Doc Holliday to WVU head coach.

Please make this happen.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anacardo


I am busily incorporating all of GT's jankified flexboney principles into my NCAA 2009 campaign
GT3O

Check out the video on this page starting at about 1:25. UGA player celebrating his "tackle" on Dwyer as Roddy streaks down the sideline.

http://onlineathens.com/stories/1130...22.shtml#video
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 11:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
People are talking about Bill Stewart to WVU AD and Doc Holliday to WVU head coach.

Please make this happen.
Such kindness to Stewart. lol

Doc would make a great HBC, ldo.
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote
12-02-2008 , 11:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mmbt0ne
GT3O

Check out the video on this page starting at about 1:25. UGA player celebrating his "tackle" on Dwyer as Roddy streaks down the sideline.

http://onlineathens.com/stories/1130...22.shtml#video
haha, epic. UGA's defenders couldn't even catch our guys to fake celebrate tho
Week 15 College Football--Semi-Finals Quote

      
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