Waz, I'm low on Goodson. I think he's a slight dog to make the squad - seniority rules. /dockworkers union
I forgot about Brooks but I think he's a wildcard anyway.
CONCACAF last day:
I did something like this for UEFA qualifiers, but for us, this is all relatively straightforward. So here goes.
|
Team v t e |
Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts |
United States 9 6 1 2 12 6 +6 19 |
Costa Rica 9 4 3 2 11 6 +5 15 |
Honduras 9 4 2 3 11 10 +1 14 |
Mexico 9 2 5 2 6 7 −1 11 |
Panama 9 1 5 3 8 11 −3 8 |
Jamaica 9 0 4 5 3 11 −8 4 |
So, USA has clinched the top of the table. Costa Rica have locked in a spot automatically. Jamaica are out of the race.
The possibilities...
Essentially, it's a 3 horse race between the 1.5 spots, with 1 scenario (the table as it is now) being
by far the most likely to occur.
Honduras locks in an automatic spot regardless of what happens to Mexico in the event of a draw+. They also lock in a spot unless Mexico wins. Honduras plays away to Jamaica, and Jamaica bet win % is just a notch above 25%. Mexico plays away to Costa Rica, and their win % (shockingly) is near 50%. This I don't understand, but maybe the books figure Costa Rica doesn't care about this game at all and Mexico is going all out to win.
In addition, Mexico must erase a 2 goal differential between Honduras, which probably would take care of itself in the event Honduras loses and Mexico wins. (Although not necessarily; Honduras owns the next tiebreak if they finish equal on GD) All of this means Mexico has about a 1 in 15 shot (therabout) of actually catapulting above Honduras. It can happen, it's just unlikely.
On the other end of things, for the playoff berth, Panama plays us at home. They need a win AND a Mexico loss; they, too, would erase the goal differential if things finish like that, and they own the next tiebreak vs Mexico. Panama is about 35% to win whereas Mexico is a bit less than 25% to lose, which means they too have about a little better than 1 in 15.
So, final matchday isn't too enthralling. But it certainly can be; I imagine Mexico will shoot for the middle and draw, which will render the other results not important. If I didn't care about the US I would watch Mexico as a neutral, but since I do care about US, I want us to either win by a lot and impress or lose and totally gift wrap the match to Panama. Really don't want a draw.
The playoff is vs New Zealand, which SPR has rated as the 75th nation in the world. (With a -0.1 GD vs a neutral) It's hard to handicap with such radical time zone home/away splits (I can't imagine New Zealand going away to Azteca and performing even halfway admirably, and vica versa) but Mexico are 23rd (+0.9), Honduras 30th (+0.9), and Panama 41st (+0.5). Obviously New Zealand should be rooting for Panama to win and Mexico to lose, as that's their best path.
%wise for WC, Honduras is likely 98% (figure ~94% to win automatic, about 2:1 favorites or more vs New Zealand for their remaining equity) Mexico is around 65-70%, and Panama 1-5%.