Wtf. America is my homeland.

also lol @ OGKush:



http://houston.culturemap.com/news/c...s-the-moniker/

That's why he said fake homeland aka mexico

In the truly American spirit of setting money on fire...

At least we're #1.

name a price yo

This post is ample reward for all the time I've ever spent studying Spanish.


Oh man, this one had me in stitches.

Someone get the duck avatar with USA colors ready for Cruizn when he hops on the bandwagon for the WC next year

Nobody is going to want USA in their group when the other options are Honduras, Costa Rica or something.
Conmebol is going to get paired with whatever confederation FIFA wants to help, I suspect that may be Asia.

Kush, I'm obv in line behind the others who have offered but i'll offer you double or nothing even money on our current bet.

My terms:

USA advances to World Cup Finals group stage and Mexico does not.
OR
USA advances past the group stage and Mexico does not
OR
In the event USA and Mexico are both eliminated in Pool play the team with the higher number of points wins the bet. If points are equal, goal differential will be used. If GD is equal goals scored will be the tie breaker.
OR
In the event both USA and Mexico are eliminated at the same point of the knockout rounds the tiebreaker order will be: 1) final position in their group. 2) goal differential 3) goals scored.

I think that covers all possibilities. Feel free to tinker with it if I've left something off.

In the abstract, sure, but I don't think you'd disagree that it's hugely draw dependent, obviously much more for #16 than for #3.

No dispute that the former hypothetical group is better for us, of course, but I don't know about much better. It sounds like it's assuming the group top seeds are certain qualifiers, but that's just not the right way to analyze this.

Obviously the probability that Brasil screws the pooch and fails to qualify for the knockout stage is rather less than the probability that Argentina fails to qualify. That extra equity falls to the other teams in the group (particularly the 2nd and 3rd best teams), and it matters. To wit:


Excellent way to frame it. Not every group will be so evenly matched among 2 through 4, of course.

It's like making a poker play where you could outdraw your opponent 40% of the time OR get a fold 20%. (Yes, I know it matters how much is the pot, ldo.) You can't just say, "I probably won't get a fold and I probably won't make my draw, so it's -EV."

What matters is the combined probability, not really whether we're 1st or 2nd or 4th.

Do you mean the track record? That's a sample size of six post-Gaetjens tournaments, 3 of 6, which clearly means absolutely nothing. I kind of want to do the math just to give us a 95% confidence interval of something like 0.1 to 0.9 probability of qualifying.

Do you mean somehow you know we were theoretically 50% each time? If so, how did you know this?

Man, I gotta start following this sport. I kinda knew Chi Chi Chi Le Le Le was good, but I had no idea CONMEBOL had gotten so theoretically strong relative to UEFA.

If Cabo Verde or Ethiopia makes it in, that's going to cause some entertaining imbalance in the groups. TBH the idea of potting teams by confederation instead of by seeding is stupid anyway; instead, they should just have more transparent procedures at the draw to avoid confederation conflicts (not that weird made-up-on-the-fly **** that reminds me of 1993 with Robin Williams and Mr. Bladder).

I like unbalanced groups tbh

Since we're taking a quick detour to African nations, I just want to point out that Egypt is the only country in African qualifying to go 6-for-6 in their group stage games.

Go get 'em Bob.

:thumbup:

We are the 5th best team in the world now? Not bad. Regarding Cape Verde Im not saying they are world beaters but they are stronger than what Angola or Togo were in 2006 and on par with Algeria on 2010. They could perfectly get a result against USA( or Chile for that matter).
Ethiopia qualifying to the playoffs is just a result of South Africa being horrible and bailed out by the win against France that boosted their Fifa ranking imo.

That beind said, getting Cape Verde in the world cup would be really positive to any team. Just like getting Algeria was but still England couldnt manage to beat them

Bobbo, I'm sure I can get a pretty nice price on the Mexico/Panama game at the bookies, so no thanks.

OGK - I will bet as much as you want in a WC last longer (or most total points in group play if neither team advances in the WC), if a part of that is an auto-win if Mexico doesn't qualify.

I'm asking you experts on how good USA is and how terrible Mexico is to assign a line. We can go from there. Even money? C'mon LK

Hahaaaaa...ogkush confirmed heartless loser.

lol what a pathetic post that is

lolllllllllllll

Don't let them shame you into giving them a bad line bro.

How much odds do you need, OGKUSH?

I'm not actually the least bit interested in betting, I'm mostly just interested in hearing you have to say that Mexico clearly sucks because they need huge odds in order for you to consider betting on them against the new kings of CONCACAF.