Yup. Agreed

Artie87 has clearly never eaten a beignet.

hmmmmm maybe i'll go to cafe du monde tomorrow before football

lol 75% panama over usa is this guy real?

a must win home game vs a team that has nothing else to play for and for a potential world cup spot. maybe i went a bit too high, but i dont see how its anywhere under 60%.

pinnacle has it exactly even

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League...C/1/Lines.aspx

panama almost tied a terrible mexico squad on the road - lol at them beating a team that's already qualified for the wc, even if they're sitting guys

wait that sounds like they have a shot - I was just loling mexico

http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/15...-squad?cc=5901

We def will have a relatively weak XI out there.
Guzan
Beasley/Goodson/Cameron/Evans
Beckerman/Diskeruud
Bedoya/Johannson/Zusi
Altidore

is my prediction, in a 4-2-3-1.

Maybe Jurgen gets feisty and uses Castillo/Orozco/Wondo just to mix it up.

I think with Johannson's emergence, unfortunately for Wondo, he has very little shot at our WC roster. After the closure to WCQ I really do want to look in depth at what players we'll carry... The only position we seem locked in is Tim Howard/Brad Guzan/Nick Rimando. (I can't imagine, barring injury, those 3 not being our GKs, in that order)

Didn't realize Nick Rimando is 34.

Shot in the dark, but our 23...

Tim Howard/Brad Guzan/Nick Rimando
DaMarcus Beasley/Omar Gonzalez/Matt Besler/Geoff Cameron*/Timmy Chandler/Carlos Bocanegra
*Could see Cameron starting as our RB in Brazil, or as a DMF. I know LB is such a sore spot but I really do think Beasley is going to be our starting LB. I believe in the Besler/Gonzo pairing at CB and think it's our best option.
Michael Bradley/Jermaine Jones/Kyle Beckerman/Mix Diskeruud
You just know Beckerman is going to make the squad. Just one of those things. Holden's injury opened the door for Mix, although I doubt he gets on the pitch in Brazil.
Landon Donovan/Clint Dempsey/Eddie Johnson/Alejandro Bedoya
I think Bedoya makes it over Zusi.
Jozy Altidore/Herc Gomez/Aron Johannsson

That's 20. If Dolo gets fit, he may make it; have to figure another defender or two as well as midfielder are in the mix. I don't see us playing with 2 strikers in Brazil so I can't picture more than Jozy/herc/Johannson, esp. bc Eddie or Dempsey can play up front in a pinch.

I like Parkhurst so I'm rooting for him, but I think he's lower on Jurgy's totem pole. Fabian Johnson, Joe Corona, Brek Shea, maybe even Edu... 1 or 2 of those guys make it. Gun to my head, the final 3 spots I would give to Dolo, Johnson, and Brek Shea.

Shrug.

That post is offensive to Fabian Johnson. He is as much of a lock as Tim Howard is.(okay maybe not really, but he is a lock) Bocanegra not getting anywhere near this roster. Edu is basically ****ed if he doesn't go on loan sooner rather than later. JK loves Brek, but he's gotta play too.

Most of the rest is closeish. There is possibly room for both Bedoya and Zusi. Maybe you brainfarted and meant Goodson instead of Boca, which is very possible. Brooks in the mix too. Obv tons of other possibilities at basically every position, but for the most part I think JK has a pretty good idea of what his core is.

Waz, I'm low on Goodson. I think he's a slight dog to make the squad - seniority rules. /dockworkers union

I forgot about Brooks but I think he's a wildcard anyway.

CONCACAF last day:

I did something like this for UEFA qualifiers, but for us, this is all relatively straightforward. So here goes.

Team v t e

Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts

United States 9 6 1 2 12 6 +6 19

Costa Rica 9 4 3 2 11 6 +5 15

Honduras 9 4 2 3 11 10 +1 14

Mexico 9 2 5 2 6 7 −1 11

Panama 9 1 5 3 8 11 −3 8

Jamaica 9 0 4 5 3 11 −8 4

So, USA has clinched the top of the table. Costa Rica have locked in a spot automatically. Jamaica are out of the race.

The possibilities...
Essentially, it's a 3 horse race between the 1.5 spots, with 1 scenario (the table as it is now) being by far the most likely to occur.

Honduras locks in an automatic spot regardless of what happens to Mexico in the event of a draw+. They also lock in a spot unless Mexico wins. Honduras plays away to Jamaica, and Jamaica bet win % is just a notch above 25%. Mexico plays away to Costa Rica, and their win % (shockingly) is near 50%. This I don't understand, but maybe the books figure Costa Rica doesn't care about this game at all and Mexico is going all out to win. In addition, Mexico must erase a 2 goal differential between Honduras, which probably would take care of itself in the event Honduras loses and Mexico wins. (Although not necessarily; Honduras owns the next tiebreak if they finish equal on GD) All of this means Mexico has about a 1 in 15 shot (therabout) of actually catapulting above Honduras. It can happen, it's just unlikely.

On the other end of things, for the playoff berth, Panama plays us at home. They need a win AND a Mexico loss; they, too, would erase the goal differential if things finish like that, and they own the next tiebreak vs Mexico. Panama is about 35% to win whereas Mexico is a bit less than 25% to lose, which means they too have about a little better than 1 in 15.

So, final matchday isn't too enthralling. But it certainly can be; I imagine Mexico will shoot for the middle and draw, which will render the other results not important. If I didn't care about the US I would watch Mexico as a neutral, but since I do care about US, I want us to either win by a lot and impress or lose and totally gift wrap the match to Panama. Really don't want a draw.

The playoff is vs New Zealand, which SPR has rated as the 75th nation in the world. (With a -0.1 GD vs a neutral) It's hard to handicap with such radical time zone home/away splits (I can't imagine New Zealand going away to Azteca and performing even halfway admirably, and vica versa) but Mexico are 23rd (+0.9), Honduras 30th (+0.9), and Panama 41st (+0.5). Obviously New Zealand should be rooting for Panama to win and Mexico to lose, as that's their best path.

%wise for WC, Honduras is likely 98% (figure ~94% to win automatic, about 2:1 favorites or more vs New Zealand for their remaining equity) Mexico is around 65-70%, and Panama 1-5%.

I actually like Mexico City (I like Latin America, and I like most big cities) but the idea of someone from there trying to troll New Orleans as culturally insignificant or a wasteland or whatever is just silly in its lack of self-awareness.

Excellent post, but I'm not clear on this percentage breakdown at the end. It's two spots up for grabs, right? So the combined equity should total 200%? Even using your best case numbers for all three teams, 98%+70%+5% is only 173%, leaving a fair amount of equity unaccounted for...

Oh wait, lol me. New Zealand. Using the above ranges, they would have 27-36% equity. I'll post this anyway, just in case anyone else was having the same brain meltdown I was.

USA finally has it figured out with their new coach. Ship it.

Exactly. New Zealand will qualify roughly that often.

I think it's pretty significant that the opening match of that playoff is in New Zealand. It's ****ing HARD to shift your circadian rhythm 12 hours. Mexico will have to travel to NZ and then back to Mex very quickly. NZ only has to make that trans-pacific flight once for a game. I think it's a bigger advantage than anybody is giving it credit for. I'd say it adds like 2% to NZ's equity.

And Kush, sorry I didn't see your DoN offer. Obv just keep it where it is since I didn't get it in in time.

leg 2 will be in New Zealand.

Yeah, 13 or 14th in Panama or Mexico and Nov 20th in NZ

maybe in Honduras tho!

reminder: Bob and Egypt take on Ghana tomorrow at noon eastern in Ghana. The game WILL be televised here on beIN. Can't wait to watch and root hard for Egypt to get a 1st leg result on the road. I love what Bob is doing over there and I really hope he can take them to Brazil. They were unlucky to draw Ghana, but Egypt has been at it's best in WCQ with him at the helm.

LET'S GO PHARAOHS!




This man will not be present:

Rooting for Bob. Game on in 45. Drawing Ghana sucks. Considering they knocked us (and, Bob) out of the last WC, this should have ppl extra pulling for Egypt

How can you say Beckerman makes it but Brad doesn't?

Bc Jurgen loves Beckerman?