lol please, its exactly what I spelled said in my first post on this and explicitly stated in my more detailed one. In theory the bet is already significantly lopsided in favor of He's Baaaack. I mean, if you aren't confident it's a freeroll due to the lock of him winning one measly tournament in 5 years, then I don't know what to say. But whatever, long bets suck anyways so whatever, let's pass.

Simpler bet: Ends after the Masters 2017, so two fullyears. Tiger wins a major, I lose, wins no PGA/WGC/Majors (e.g. rando dumb events don't count, nor do team events), I win, He wins but not a major it's a push.

The bet gets even worse

Seems that Woods Slappy Inc. fully realize he's a washed up bum and are just trolling about him being back.

What would I have to lay if I wanted to bet no Major wins in this calendar year? Better than having a dumb super longterm bet.

Haha at how this bet is transforming.

I mean, lol at walking from a bet where you have 5-years to do it. The math is pretty obviously massively in your favor too assuming any reasonable win%/tournament for him - this isn't a hard bet to calculate ballpark odds for. "it gets worse", I mean, if you really don't think it's a freeroll that he wins one measly tournament in 5-years, then it's time we all just stfu about this guy til he actually like wins something.

And I like him, he's my favorite golfer.

Tut, he was -500 no juice to win 0 majors this year prior to the Masters.

I mean, basically lack of conviction plus greed showing through here from both of you. Glad I'm not stuck with a bet that would've been at way worse odds than a true market though.

Yeah but after that dominant HE'S BACK 25th place finish, I should be able to do better with three left I'd think.

Yeah, I'd think it'd be likely lower also.

Just looked. 5dimes has Tiger at the following:

British +1200
US +1450
PGA +1650

Assuming like 15% juice on those for an early prop and you can back into a fair line for at least one major.

Also shows how much of a runaway free money the original offer was.

Clark, I'll do the 2 year bet (through 2017 Masters) for a smaller amount ($200?) if you want.

Yeah let's all hold off judgment about the guy until he gets win #80. But with 79 career wins it's perfectly acceptable to declare him done. Dude certainly hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt.

Should also mention that he's permanently exempt in the PGA Tour. To do that, you need 20 career wins. Here's the complete list of golfers under 50 who qualify for that exemption:

Phil
Tiger

Pretty obvious that nobody in here is going to lock into a long term bet of 5+ years, but the original bet is a complete joke, the 5 year bet is ok, and the 2 year bet is meh.

Without going into the math, the 2 year bet is SIGNIFICANTLY worse than the 5 year one, which is why I said "the bet gets worse".

looks like golf is entering a new peak in entertainment and popularity, not seen since the Tiger Slam era. very exciting. Tiger steals one major in this new wave and the game could blow up. no need for 15 in cups hopefully.

It is obvious the majority of you are snorting crack. To put it in perspective, from this point of his career forward Jack won only 3 more majors. However Jack was in WAY better form and physical shape (injury free) than Tiger is at this stage of his career. In fact he was still world #1 at this exact point Tiger is now. While Tiger has mostly had more major surgeries and is struggling badly to regain any foothold or form, let alone being close to returning to the top. Should Tiger not have won another major by the end of next year, he will be at the point of Jack's career where Jack won only 1 more major.

Tiger will be lucky to win 1 more major to end with 15. There is more chance of the Tooth Fairy appearing than him getting near 18. It aint happening folks, sorry.

By the way I am someone who would have LOVED for Tiger to beat Jack's record. IMO he is the golf GOAT at this moment and is better than Jack, and I would have loved to see him get the record as that would make it undisputed. Without the record (which he clearly wont attain) it will remain a debate, and most will likely side with Jack unfortunately, especialy if Tiger doesnt even get close (which he wont). So if Tiger somehow proves me wrong, good for him, I will be thrilled. Thrilled and shocked both.

Phil Mickelson is the actual GOAT.

He sure resembles a GOAT both in all of his physical figures, facial features and the disgusting gum chewing technique he has which looks like a goat chewing his cud. So I agree.

A few things....

1. Jack was likely not the #1 golfer when he was 39. Watson had already taken that title from him even though there was no OWGR at the time. Jack turned 39 early in 79. Sure won 3 times in 78 including the British but Watson won 5 times and was Player of the Year.

2. As far as Jack being in better form and health than Tiger at 39, that's a bit more interesting. Certainly yes in the health department but Jack won 0 of the 12 events he played while he was 39. Jack finished 4th at the 1979 Masters but like Tiger was coming off a MC at the PGA Championship before that. Jack actually only won 5 more times on the Tour after turning 39, luckily for him he went 3 for 32 in majors up until the age of 46 but went 2 for 85 in regular Tour events over that same stretch.

the other way to look at that is how fortunate Nicklaus was to win any majors at all in his late career. he got hot at the right times is mostly it.

also, how much more competitive is golf now than it was for a 40 year old Nicklaus?

Not much at all according to the guy who said if you're out of the top 20 you've got no chance to win. Lol that guy.

Another way to look at it is that Jack wasn't really close to as good as Tiger, so saying "Well Jack only..." doesn't mean much when comparing the two.

And 39 these days is probably like 34 back when Jack was playing.

in a global sense, sure, but not for Tiger. you can't look at a guy who in his mid/late 30's had years of 6, 12, 9, and 7 events played and figure he'll age way better than guys used to

Lol, not even close.

First, you have to realize that Tiger was born in December and Jack in January. Tiger turned 39 in December and will be 39 most of the calendar year. So to make a proper comparison, Jack's age 39 season was 1979--where Jack finished 71st in the money rankings. While there was no World Golf Ranking back then, #1 definitely would not have been Jack.

In fact, the PGA Player of the Year from 1977 through 1980 (Jack's ages 37 through 40) was Tom Watson. So if there was a OWGR back then, it would have been Watson (who won 5 tourneys each year from 77 through 79).

Tiger's 2012 (age 36--3 wins, 2nd best golfer in the world) was easily on par with Jack's age 36 season and Tiger's 2013 (age 37--5 wins, best golfer in the world) was better than Jack's age 37 season. So you can't just say Jack had a better career at a late age than Tiger had.