Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
yes, to clarify i'm talking vs the amateurs already in the field
not some rando in the stands but one of the dozen guys playing today who you don't know the name of, amateur was perhaps the wrong word as maybe only 1/3 of them would qualify technically as amateurs
looking at the masters we had rahm>woods -265/195 in round 4
rahm>rory and tiger exceeded expectations at the masters giving more credibility to his appearance this week (a lot of the betting lines on tiger where whether he withdraws etc and he was a huge dog to make the cut) so this speaks volumes over how much the market has tanked on tiger since then how despite a better than expected perfromance last time his lines his odds are now way worse
as for some top pro vs amateur lines from the masters
here's some lines from r2
r2 Hagestad>Lyle -409/272
r2 Schwartzel>Shepherd -504/316
r2 MacIntyre>Sheherd -750/413
r2 Spaun>Olazabal -475/303
r2 Straka>Mize -1163/542
r2 KH Lee>Singh -291/209
r2 Palmer>Singh -281/204
r2 SW Kim>Jarvis -765/419
r2 Z Johnson>Jarvis -446/290
r2 Matsuyama>Piot -621/365
very similar to the Rory>Tiger line
WTF?
First off, there are no amateurs in the field at the PGA this week. By definition, only pros are eligible to play in this event.
Let me point out a few things about these Masters odds.
r2 Hagestad>Lyle -409/272
(the reigning U.S. Mid Am champion favored over the 1988 Masters champion)
r2 Schwartzel>Shepherd -504/316
r2 MacIntyre>Sheherd -750/413
r2 Spaun>Olazabal -475/303
(both pros)
r2 Straka>Mize -1163/542
(both pros)
r2 KH Lee>Singh -291/209
(both pros)
r2 Palmer>Singh -281/204
(both pros)
r2 SW Kim>Jarvis -765/419
r2 Z Johnson>Jarvis -446/290
r2 Matsuyama>Piot -621/365
Lastly, everybody wants to bet on Tiger no matter what. The books know this and skew the line tremendously. Whatever odds you see are far worse than the true odds.
There are certainly lines to take advantage of out there, but they're going to be pros that the average viewer hasn't heard of. The average viewer has no clue that anybody with a PGA Tour card has a roughly 40% chance of beating Rory on any given day.