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View Poll Results: What will be the outcome of the game?
Falcons win; over 37 32.17%
Falcons win; under 15 13.04%
Pats win, don't cover; over 3 2.61%
Pats win, don't cover; under 7 6.09%
Pats cover; over 20 17.39%
Pats cover; under 33 28.70%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-02-2017, 03:11 PM   #351
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

He made a lot of good points until he predicted Atlanta would only score 17. Still liked the article though.
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:14 PM   #352
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Going out on a limb is fine.

Usually the analytical Barn/Lowe/Keri types never have hot takes as far as the result goes. It is almost always close to what is being projected. So I like it.
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:30 PM   #353
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I'd be real surprised if the falcons only get 17. Not saying we are going to win or cover, but I just have a hard time seeing the patriots slowing down this balanced attack
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:33 PM   #354
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I mean I agree, Falcons only scoring 17 and Pats winning by that margin seems unlikely. But I like a guy going out on a limb at least. It doesn't take any guts to say the game is gonna be 38-35 bc "offenses."
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:42 PM   #355
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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I sense an incoming meltdown from Dis...
Nah talking is over. Time to do.
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Old 02-02-2017, 06:53 PM   #356
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

lol 17 is crazy unless Ryan gets picked in the endzone like 3 times. Or Bryant misses a few 30 yarders

19 or even 16 seem a lot more likely
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Old 02-02-2017, 06:55 PM   #357
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

This thread is worse aids than I could've imagined. Might have to stay away during the actual game
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:17 PM   #358
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Barnwell column is a fun read but I think his entire thesis is close to useless. The idea that "matchups" are what swings the game is drastically overstated. Teams win or lose games BC of how good they are overall, not BC of how particular strengths or weaknesses are uniquely positioned against a particular opponent.

Source: inpredictable, which gets very close to predicting the exact spread of any game despite having no clue about (except total strength) of each team
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:25 PM   #359
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod View Post
Barnwell column is a fun read but I think his entire thesis is close to useless. The idea that "matchups" are what swings the game is drastically overstated. Teams win or lose games BC of how good they are overall, not BC of how particular strengths or weaknesses are uniquely positioned against a particular opponent.

Source: inpredictable, which gets very close to predicting the exact spread of any game despite having no clue about (except total strength) of each team
But matchups, versatility, ability to exploint weaknesses, etc ends up being the sum of all parts which ='s teams cumulative strength.

Saying team A matches up well with team B is just a different way of expressing that, no?
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:45 PM   #360
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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But matchups, versatility, ability to exploint weaknesses, etc ends up being the sum of all parts which ='s teams cumulative strength.

Saying team A matches up well with team B is just a different way of expressing that, no?
What he's saying is if team A and team B are a push on a neutral field, then they should have the same line if they played team C the following week.

I disagree personally. I don't think matchups skew lines a whole lot but I have to imagine it's to some degree.
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:46 PM   #361
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I liked the barnwell article but yeah, no idea where he got 17 points. Nothing in the article suggested NE could hold Atlanta to that few.
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:46 PM   #362
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Yeah but if you asked Barnwell who is the better team, he would say the Patriots are better.

Saying they matchup well is just a different way of saying that. He is saying they matchup well and pose problems and then listing all the reasons why. But the main reason why is because he just thinks they are a better team that can exploit their opponent more than vice versa.
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:53 PM   #363
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Well they're probably better in that they would beat Atlanta more often than they would lose, but also because they would beat other teams at a higher rate than Atlanta would.
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Old 02-03-2017, 05:03 AM   #364
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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I mean I agree, Falcons only scoring 17 and Pats winning by that margin seems unlikely. But I like a guy going out on a limb at least. It doesn't take any guts to say the game is gonna be 38-35 bc "offenses."
Deadspin's Drew Magary went out on a limb with his prediction:

Quote:
Falcons 56, Patriots 0

...sometimes, it feels good to make a prediction based on what you WANT to happen … to live for a moment in a little alternate dimension where such a hilarious outcome occurs. It’s like buying a Mega Millions ticket. I don’t expect to be right on Sunday. I’m playing to DREAM, folks. Also, the Pats can eat ****.
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Old 02-03-2017, 07:19 AM   #365
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Nah talking is over. Time to do.
Wager?
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Old 02-03-2017, 07:58 AM   #366
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Anyone have a decent prop sheet? Every year this site helps me enhance mine. Always so appreciated.
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Old 02-03-2017, 09:27 AM   #367
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I think "matchups" is about as much of a factor as random errors / fumbles/ turnovers/ the way the ball bounces
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Old 02-03-2017, 09:32 AM   #368
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
Yeah but if you asked Barnwell who is the better team, he would say the Patriots are better.

Saying they matchup well is just a different way of saying that. He is saying they matchup well and pose problems and then listing all the reasons why. But the main reason why is because he just thinks they are a better team that can exploit their opponent more than vice versa.
Not exactly. He's saying the Patriots are better, but they are gonna win by more than you'd expect BC the particular ways they are good will be particularly effective against the Falcons. That might be true to some extent, but I think 90% of the game is how good the teams are and 10% are the unique matchups in play.

But look I don't blame him, he's A writer and he can't just say the Pats are gonna win by three BC that's what the spread says
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Old 02-03-2017, 11:08 AM   #369
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Deadspin's Drew Magary went out on a limb with his prediction:
I just browsed his article. I want my 30 seconds back
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Old 02-03-2017, 12:47 PM   #370
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Enjoy the game, kids... and remember - if you're pulling for Darth Belichick & The Brady Bunch while having no affiliation to the New England area whatsoever, you're a soulless loser who deserves the utmost ridicule.

Spoiler:
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Old 02-03-2017, 01:03 PM   #371
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Old 02-03-2017, 01:10 PM   #372
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Lol haters. GOAT coach and qb going for #5. Everyone should be rooting for the pats so they can tell their kids about how they witnessed greatness.
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Old 02-03-2017, 01:58 PM   #373
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Lol haters. GOAT coach and qb going for #5. Everyone should be rooting for the pats so they can tell their kids about how they witnessed greatness.
Not sure what this game has to do with witnessing the GOAT QB since Peyton actually retired after last year's SB. I do imagine most of us watched that though so we can still tell our kids about it.
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Old 02-03-2017, 02:09 PM   #374
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

for GOAT QB rankings to settle, it's gonna take a handful more years. There is some chance Rodgers gets up to 3 SB's and puts up some great seasons and challenges Brady, and either way he's likely to have a handful more of > Peyton years to get him into the all time convo

Most likely:

Brady > Rodgers > Peyton

Then:

Brady = Rodgers > Peyton

Then

Rodgers > Brady > Peyton

either way Peyton should be largely out of the conversation for GOAT
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Old 02-03-2017, 02:15 PM   #375
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I think the compatibility of teams strengths & weaknesses can definitely be a thing...

Taking extreme examples:

One team is worst in the league against TEs & can't figure out how to cover them, but their opponent literally never throws to their TE, so it's cool. What is a huge problem against many teams, it's not a problem at all.

Or if a team is good against interior rushing & terrible against outside rushing, but the team they're playing with only runs inside, it's not a problem.

I think Barnwell took it a bit far, as real life isn't quite that black & white, though.
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