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View Poll Results: What will be the outcome of the game?
Falcons win; over 37 32.17%
Falcons win; under 15 13.04%
Pats win, don't cover; over 3 2.61%
Pats win, don't cover; under 7 6.09%
Pats cover; over 20 17.39%
Pats cover; under 33 28.70%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-09-2017, 03:44 PM   #3526
gs3737
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by ec_outlaw View Post
Patriots fans,

Take a step back. Not everything is a shot at your beloved team that never gets any respect. It's a dumb rule. It was a dumb rule Sunday. It was a dumb rule last year in the Packers/Cardinals game. It was a dumb rule in the Packers/Seahawks game. It was a dumb rule in the Steelers/Broncos game. It's always been dumb(though slightly less than the game ending when the first drive ends in a fg). You can safely admit it's a dumb rule without taking anything away from their win. I was ecstatic when the Cardinals won last year, but the game felt incomplete because Rodgers got left standing on the sideline, never getting back on the field after the miraculous/improbable comeback.

Football isn't basketball, or soccer, or hockey, where the offense and defense are on the field at the same time. Do you also feel if there's a leadoff homerun in the top of the 10th, the game should be over? No, because that would be ridiculous. Both teams should have the chance to posses the ball. It's not a difficult concept to grasp.
This is fair for the most part.

Totally disagree that it's only "slightly less dumb" than the old rules. The old rules were ridiculously unfair to team that lost the coin flip, driving to the 35 and kicking a game winning FG isn't even close to having to score a TD in order to end the game. That said, obv any event of sheer luck that impacts a games outcome has a level on unfairness. But this system is light years better than sudden death.
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Old 02-09-2017, 03:50 PM   #3527
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by gs3737 View Post
This is fair for the most part.

Totally disagree that it's only "slightly less dumb" than the old rules. The old rules were ridiculously unfair to team that lost the coin flip, driving to the 35 and kicking a game winning FG isn't even close to having to score a TD in order to end the game. That said, obv any event of sheer luck that impacts a games outcome has a level on unfairness. But this system is light years better than sudden death.
Agreed. The current format is definitely exponentially better than the previous one. I should've said that the first time.
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Old 02-09-2017, 03:52 PM   #3528
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by gs3737 View Post
This is fair for the most part.

Totally disagree that it's only "slightly less dumb" than the old rules. The old rules were ridiculously unfair to team that lost the coin flip, driving to the 35 and kicking a game winning FG isn't even close to having to score a TD in order to end the game. That said, obv any event of sheer luck that impacts a games outcome has a level on unfairness. But this system is light years better than sudden death.
A full timed period> A system where both teams are guaranteed at least 1 possesion > Current > Old
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Old 02-09-2017, 04:20 PM   #3529
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
I think the trailing team deserves a possession in the playoffs. Coin flip might not effect too much equity but it isn't nothing either.

Even going from 50% to 60% in a championship game is too much.
It's close to a coin flip right now. Giving the second team a chance to answer a TD would hugely favor the team that kicks off initially. It might be worse than the old NFL overtime rules.
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Old 02-09-2017, 04:36 PM   #3530
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by SenorKeeed View Post
It's close to a coin flip right now. Giving the second team a chance to answer a TD would hugely favor the team that kicks off initially. It might be worse than the old NFL overtime rules.
Help me understand this, and I'm not very intelligent, often taking the casual fan line of thinking, so walk me through it. If it's close to a coin flip now, why does everyone always take the ball first? Are coaches that dumb, or are they concerned with the backlash from the higher ups if they defer and never get the ball?

Also, if the rules were changed so that both teams get the ball, and, as you say, that benefits the team that gets it second, winning the coin toss would allow you to defer and gain that advantage. Winning the coin toss is always going to give somebody an advantage, but that advantage shouldn't be the other team never getting to touch the ball, imo.
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:38 PM   #3531
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

How is it close to a coin flip? If team A scores, they win the game. What are they to score on a given possession that late in the game in a do or die situation? (Where going for it on 4th down obviously makes even more sense)

Gotta be like 5-10% higher probability they score than normal.
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:43 PM   #3532
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
How is it close to a coin flip? If team A scores, they win the game. What are they to score on a given possession that late in the game in a do or die situation? (Where going for it on 4th down obviously makes even more sense)

Gotta be like 5-10% higher probability they score than normal.
? are you talking about the old overtime rules?

Brian Burke modeled it, he found kicking teams should win 54% of the time, all else being equal.

pretty sure the actual results are even closer to 50/50 though

this was through December 2015:

Quote:
Since the NFL adopted its current regular-season overtime rules in 2012, teams that win the toss and receive the ball first have gone on to win only 51.5 percent of the time.
and someone upthread said it was exactly even this year
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:54 PM   #3533
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by ec_outlaw View Post
Help me understand this, and I'm not very intelligent, often taking the casual fan line of thinking, so walk me through it. If it's close to a coin flip now, why does everyone always take the ball first? Are coaches that dumb, or are they concerned with the backlash from the higher ups if they defer and never get the ball?

Also, if the rules were changed so that both teams get the ball, and, as you say, that benefits the team that gets it second, winning the coin toss would allow you to defer and gain that advantage. Winning the coin toss is always going to give somebody an advantage, but that advantage shouldn't be the other team never getting to touch the ball, imo.
It's close to even but maybe it's slightly advantageous to receive? I don't think it's a settled question, the models say it's close, the empirical results say it's close. It's close.

And it's not like the kicking team can't do anything once the receiving team gets the ball. IIRC they can play defense.
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:54 PM   #3534
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

arguing against the current rules is senseless. give the falcons another possession, another quarter or another whole game, the result will be the same. the only question is by how much they lose.
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Old 02-09-2017, 06:12 PM   #3535
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by SenorKeeed View Post
It's close to even but maybe it's slightly advantageous to receive? I don't think it's a settled question, the models say it's close, the empirical results say it's close. It's close.

And it's not like the kicking team can't do anything once the receiving team gets the ball. IIRC they can play defense.
The argument that OT rules should take into account how teams choose to structure their team is weird.

This is what I meant when I said it's a two-way game.
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Old 02-09-2017, 06:18 PM   #3536
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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So you think one team having 4 downs vs 3 is fair?
just as fair as the desperate team going for it on 4th down and trying onside kicks during regulation
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Old 02-09-2017, 08:11 PM   #3537
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

THE 22 ****ING YARD LINE!
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Old 02-09-2017, 08:31 PM   #3538
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Sudden death OT with no kickoff would be fine (just continue from where regulation left off). Would also see a few more 2pc attempts to try to win the game at the end of regulation (45% chance of 2pc > 95% of XP * 40-45% chance of winning OT when kicking off), although I'd expect a lot of teams to screw that up at first.
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Old 02-09-2017, 08:53 PM   #3539
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I like "play a full quarter but sudden death if a team goes up 9+" - imagine the tension that would produce for every drive
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Old 02-09-2017, 11:16 PM   #3540
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Overtime is perfect
Rules are good as is but when a team scores 7 I'd like to see the other team get a chance to get 8 for the win (7 would be a loss not a tie or continue OT).

If you really wanted you could get the ball first score and go for 8 for the walkoff.
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Old 02-10-2017, 01:07 AM   #3541
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

team who wins the coin toss gets to choose between taking the ball at the 10 or giving the other team the ball at the 10(or whatever yard line makes the coin toss winner indifferent)
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Old 02-10-2017, 01:54 AM   #3542
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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THE 22 ****ING YARD LINE!


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Old 02-10-2017, 04:27 AM   #3543
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Us olds remember back in the day when regular season ties happened every week.

Oh, and the goalposts were on the goal line, and nickels had pictures of bees on them.
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Old 02-10-2017, 11:22 AM   #3544
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I still can't believe the goal posts were on goal line, so dangerous.
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Old 02-10-2017, 11:31 AM   #3545
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

It's still that way in rugby.
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Old 02-10-2017, 01:12 PM   #3546
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Us olds remember back in the day when regular season ties happened every week.

Oh, and the goalposts were on the goal line, and nickels had pictures of bees on them.
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Old 02-10-2017, 11:08 PM   #3547
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by H0RUS View Post
the silver lining in this is that the falcons can feasibly win a superbowl within the next 5 years
I doubt it. We've only experienced 1% of the bizarre, gut-wrenching failures that are possible. Buckle up.
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Old 02-11-2017, 12:34 AM   #3548
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Secret bid for starting field position, closest bid to your own endzone gets it.
Advantage: BB
But this is a very intriguing concept.
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Old 02-11-2017, 12:47 AM   #3549
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by dipstikdave View Post
arguing against the current rules is senseless. give the falcons another possession, another quarter or another whole game, the result will be the same. the only question is by how much they lose.
But what about if they had made two field goals. That's one more than Pats made in OT.
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Old 02-11-2017, 05:01 AM   #3550
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I liked Brady joking on instagram about the Tyree catch. Maybe not trolling every athlete who prays to god but Brady clearly is more about the religion of footballism.
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