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View Poll Results: What will be the outcome of the game?
Falcons win; over 37 32.17%
Falcons win; under 15 13.04%
Pats win, don't cover; over 3 2.61%
Pats win, don't cover; under 7 6.09%
Pats cover; over 20 17.39%
Pats cover; under 33 28.70%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-01-2017, 09:15 PM   #326
BiiiiigChips
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Namath12 View Post
I thought we agreed to stop with the Roman numerals already
That was just for SB 50. Back to Roman numerals now
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:19 PM   #327
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

plus the Drumpf presidency requires that it's LI, LII, LIII, and then hopefully by year 4 we can LIV once again
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:23 PM   #328
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

More run good for Atlanta. Looks like a good chance the area will get a casino. The Falcons are a lock - the stars have aligned this year.

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regio...agnIOYvYAJE1N/
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:26 PM   #329
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

So this Super Bowl isn't named after an Asian dude?
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:43 PM   #330
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

the gaping toms in a blowout

gisele knows what im talking about

Spoiler:
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:45 PM   #331
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Prawney View Post
What a world, not only are we ITT constantly talking about how the #1 scoring D in the league this season sucks, but now we are vouching for the ass D that is the Falcons.

Falcons got 1 guy on their DL that makes plays. Good luck that the Pats let him beat them. Then on the back end they have noone that can cover. The only way Brady doesnt shred this D is if BB decides he wants to have a guy run for a couple hundred yards.
lol I'm not vouching for them, just saying they've been much better as of late. Cute that you bring up #1 scoring D in the league but also say that the offenses are basically a wash. And nobody has said the Pats defense sucks, just that they've been largely untested.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:59 PM   #332
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Prawney View Post
What a world, not only are we ITT constantly talking about how the #1 scoring D in the league this season sucks, but now we are vouching for the ass D that is the Falcons.

Falcons got 1 guy on their DL that makes plays. Good luck that the Pats let him beat them. Then on the back end they have noone that can cover. The only way Brady doesnt shred this D is if BB decides he wants to have a guy run for a couple hundred yards.
Who the **** have they played bro? How much you want on this game *****
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Old 02-02-2017, 12:00 AM   #333
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by bazooka87 View Post
lol I'm not vouching for them, just saying they've been much better as of late. Cute that you bring up #1 scoring D in the league but also say that the offenses are basically a wash. And nobody has said the Pats defense sucks, just that they've been largely untested.
This is a good post. Prawnaids is back in full force.
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Old 02-02-2017, 12:04 AM   #334
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

So I'm not totally bias Pats are wearing white jerseys and that color has won 10/11 and 32-18 all time
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Old 02-02-2017, 12:05 AM   #335
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by 72off View Post
(xpost from the media thread in case ppl don't look in there)

GOOD vs EVIL

https://kentremendousblog.tumblr.com...uper-bowl-is-a

predictably amazing
I'm like 20 words in and rolling. I miss these guys so much.

I'm assuming this is a one off thing and he doesn't really do this that often anymore?
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Old 02-02-2017, 01:13 AM   #336
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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This is a good post. Prawnaids is back in full force.
Ouch
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Old 02-02-2017, 01:26 AM   #337
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod View Post
this is one of those things that is cause for frequent confusion bc the answer is...somewhere in the middle. books frequently just try balance the money but will also sometimes take positions on one side or the other and not care about balancing the money

source: friend who was a market maker at one of the big offshore books.

though for the Super Bow, it's such a huge event that I think most are just balancing the money, bc getting it wrong would be pretty bad. taking positions is more common when the money is smaller.
Not saying you're wrong but listening to Bob Scooch on Behind the Bets makes me question your friend's claim. I've never once heard Scooch come close to suggesting they take a position that isn't based on balancing the money.

That said I'm sure some line makers are willing to tolerate more risk than others so both people could be correct in this scenario.
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Old 02-02-2017, 01:29 AM   #338
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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I've heard that the reason the spread is only Pats -3 is because there is a good amount of tickets in which people took the Falcons preseason 150/1 to win the super bowl. Then that number dropped to 100/1 and people still fired. 80/1, 60/1, etc etc. So it may make sense for Vegas to want a lot of people to take the Pats to even out the money that way too.
This is really, really dense. Who told you this? Where did you hear it? Cmon man.
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Old 02-02-2017, 02:26 AM   #339
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by outdrawed View Post
I'm assuming this is a one off thing and he doesn't really do this that often anymore?
yeah he seems to only do them once in a blue moon these days (though his blog seems to be updated frequently), now that he's so busy making TREMENDOUS tv shows
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Old 02-02-2017, 05:56 AM   #340
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I used to work in sports books, both Vegas and offshore.

Only time we ever placed +EV over balancing was on rare props with very low limits. Things like "Will either team score in the last 2 minutes of the first half?", or "Will either team score three straight times?" For years, squares took a small +price on the No, the sharps never bought back the Yes....but it they came Yes almost every single game.

(Folks finally noticed, and now that 2-min prop is about -400 instead of -180.)

We would never, never, never, even DREAM of doing something like that with the freaking point spread in the freaking Super Bowl....and I worked on the Las Vegas Strip at the 10th-biggest hotel in the world at the time, don't tell me it's because we were under-capitalized.

Spoiler:
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:19 AM   #341
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by DisGunBGud View Post
Who the **** have they played bro? How much you want on this game *****
How old are you?
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:44 AM   #342
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

How long ago was that ytf? Times have changed drastically. One big difference is that most books have the ability to lay off bets on other books if they have too much risk.
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Old 02-02-2017, 09:48 AM   #343
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

So much risk on Falcons that we need to move a Pats fair line of -6 to -3
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Old 02-02-2017, 10:17 AM   #344
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

What non-game props are people on? I've got:
U 128.5 seconds for anthem Evens
PURPLE Joe Buck tie colour +2000
BORN THIS WAY Lady Gaga First Song +800
NO Will Lady Gaga mention Trump? -120

Feeling good about Born This Way, it's been bet down to +225
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Old 02-02-2017, 11:15 AM   #345
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

yeah but you know because of all the +800 action on "born this way"....
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Old 02-02-2017, 12:20 PM   #346
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Simmons was saying he could see Gaga playing that "Telephone" song and smashing her phone Brady style

That would be pretty cool.
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Old 02-02-2017, 02:02 PM   #347
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Simmons (well, Cousin Sal) also said Edge of Glory was bet down from +800 to +140 (or maybe -140?).

Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
How long ago was that ytf? Times have changed drastically. One big difference is that most books have the ability to lay off bets on other books if they have too much risk.
the 1990s. I'm certain many, many things have changed since then. The art of betting was really starting to change by the time I left in 2002. Stanford Wong's book had just come out, and folks were learning you could bet on sports you knew nothing about, if the numbers were right. Books were scrambling to come to terms with this.

But you're going to have to cite some sources if you want me to believe that the Nevada Gaming Control Board has changed their minds on letting licensed sports books lay off a penny of their action; or that any Las Vegas oddsmaker is confident the "true line" on the multi-million-dollar Super Bowl is ever several points off.
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Old 02-02-2017, 02:31 PM   #348
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by youtalkfunny View Post
Simmons (well, Cousin Sal) also said Edge of Glory was bet down from +800 to +140 (or maybe -140?).



the 1990s. I'm certain many, many things have changed since then. The art of betting was really starting to change by the time I left in 2002. Stanford Wong's book had just come out, and folks were learning you could bet on sports you knew nothing about, if the numbers were right. Books were scrambling to come to terms with this.

But you're going to have to cite some sources if you want me to believe that the Nevada Gaming Control Board has changed their minds on letting licensed sports books lay off a penny of their action; or that any Las Vegas oddsmaker is confident the "true line" on the multi-million-dollar Super Bowl is ever several points off.
about 97% of Super Bowl bets are not covered by NGCB licensed books
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Old 02-02-2017, 02:32 PM   #349
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/1..****anta-falcons

Bill Barnwell SB preview

edit: it's loongggggg

Last edited by Onlydo2days; 02-02-2017 at 02:45 PM.
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Old 02-02-2017, 02:46 PM   #350
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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I sense an incoming meltdown from Dis...
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