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View Poll Results: What will be the outcome of the game?
Falcons win; over 37 32.17%
Falcons win; under 15 13.04%
Pats win, don't cover; over 3 2.61%
Pats win, don't cover; under 7 6.09%
Pats cover; over 20 17.39%
Pats cover; under 33 28.70%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-31-2017, 06:34 PM   #276
Prawney
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

That being said, Pats ST's still definately better.
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Old 01-31-2017, 06:36 PM   #277
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

here's the thing. If the Patriots use their special teams for more than returning kickoffs and kickoff coverage then they're ****ed.
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Old 01-31-2017, 06:42 PM   #278
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Thank god for this #backpackgate. If the Falcons score less than 40 and lose, delusional Falcons fans will be able to Marshall Faulk themselves to death. "I'll never believe otherwise!"
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Old 01-31-2017, 06:42 PM   #279
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

It's like 80% that the Pats have the Falcons playbook.

GG ATL
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Old 01-31-2017, 06:54 PM   #280
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

These stats would be better if they were actually accurate...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DisGunBGud View Post
If you're referencing me then let's try a different approach. Mr. Pats fan who clearly doesn't have a pot to piss in says Pats ST's >>> Falcons ST's. LAUGHABLE! Why you ask?

KICKER: Raw numbers clearly indicate Matt Bryant had a better year than Stephen Gostkowski. And yes every Pat slappy will scream out but your guys kicks in a dome, that isn't fair, wah wah wah. True he does kick in a dome but he also did miss less attempts while putting in more volume. Also I watched Gostkowski kick a ton this year and this guy was missing kicks he usually makes in his sleep. POINT FALCONS!
Easier kicking conditions lead to a higher % of made kicks. More news at 10. Table is for field goals & includes playoffs:

 Dome%Outdoors%
Bryant21/2295.5%16/1888.9%
Gostkowski3/3100.0%29/3485.3%

But yeah, Gostkowski kind of sucked this season, so it's reasonable to say that Bryant had a better year. It seems silly to say that either provides a big advantage, though.

Quote:
PUNTER: Something about the Patriots punter pinning people deep in their own territory non stop was mentioned earlier in this thread. Doesn't surprise me it's another fallacy created by New England pole smokers. Not only did Matt Bosher (Atlanta's punter) knock 29 punts out of his 66 inside the 20 this year but he's 2nd in the league in average punt distance. Case in point the man is a beast. As for New England's guy? He averages a middling league average in distance and actually has less punts pinned inside the 20 but has 14 more attempts. Not to mention over half of his punts have been returned this year. Usually not a great thing. POINT FALCONS!
I feel like you just made up these #s entirely? Bosher had 44 punts this year, not 66, of which 21 were inside the 20. Allen has 72 punts this year (28 more than Bosher), and 2 more inside the 20 (23). Also, Allen has had 27 of 72 punts returned this year...that's 37.5% (less than half, for reference purposes Bosher has had 21 of 44 returned, or 47.7%).

Bosher has allowed 21 returns for 209 yards and Allen has allowed 27 returns for 134 yards. That's why their net punting averages are so similar...41.6 for Bosher & 41.4 for Allen.

While it's totally fine to say Bosher had a better season as a punter, your #s are entirely made up, & he again benefits from playing in a dome.

Quote:
RETURN: I'll keep this short and sweet. The Falcons are top 10 in average return yards on both kick and punt returns. The Patriots are basically dead last in both categories. POINT FALCONS!
Pretty sure you were looking at the yards allowed, not the return yards stats, as that's not a factual statement either (Falcons are 21st in KR avg).

Anyway, here's a table:

 KR AvgOpp KR AvgPR AvgOpp PR AvgNet +/-
Falcons21.022.611.49.60.2
Patriots18.719.36.95.01.3

Of course in the playoffs it's...

 KR AvgOpp KR AvgPR AvgOpp PR AvgNet +/-
Falcons16.732.712.02.5-6.5
Patriots35.515.26.59.617.2
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Old 01-31-2017, 07:06 PM   #281
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod View Post
eye test is tough bc most people don't bother to adjust for opponent strength (or doing so is hard). The Falcons offense sure looked better during the conference championship games but the Steelers defense is far better than the Packers defense. and the week before - the Texans defense was legit elite (the exact opposite of the Houston offense), far better than the Earl Thomas less Seahawks defense
But then you're running into the same issue that people have been saying about Pats not playing any good offenses. Texans defense was elite, and Brady was bad that game. Two of their touchdowns were a kick return and Brock throwing an interception which ended up with Pats at the Texans 6
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Old 01-31-2017, 07:43 PM   #282
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Phil Emery promised first-round pick Shea McClellin that one day they would be in the Super Bowl together, he technically did not lie.

**** me
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Old 01-31-2017, 08:30 PM   #283
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

JMurder used ESPN and was working while working so entirely possible that there's some margin for error there but kicker better, punter better, return whatevs. At this point though I'm even telling myself I'm talking about special teams and to stfu because the MVP gonna make it all irrelevant.
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Old 01-31-2017, 08:55 PM   #284
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

"Our punter has longer average!"

"Good for you. Our punter is usually working with a short field."
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Old 01-31-2017, 08:57 PM   #285
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I'm going to weird Super Bowl party. Well, it's not really a "party" in as much as it's just two families getting together for the game.

I live in Atlanta and there will be no Falcons fans there. My family roots for the Packers, the other family for the Cowboys. So we're all butthurt, but I think we're all still pulling for the Falcons.
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Old 01-31-2017, 09:19 PM   #286
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by youtalkfunny View Post
"Our punter has longer average!"

"Good for you. Our punter is usually working with a short field."
Well that's odd considering the Pats punted way more and have a much lower inside the 20 %
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:05 PM   #287
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by youtalkfunny View Post
They don't?

Then what DO they do? Sit around the office all day and play Scrabble?
Generally they try to take +EV bets. Suppose the book knows for a fact that the correct line is Pats -3, but that at that price the public leans heavily towards betting the Pats. The line may move to 4 or 5. The motivation for moving the line can be because taking NE -4 or NE -5 bets is juicier than taking NE -3 bets. Or, in the real world, the motivation can be that the book isn't actually sure what the correct line is and is moving it defensively in case they are wrong. But a well-capitalized book doesn't move the line purely so that people will take ATL +4 and ATL +5 bets, because based on what the book thinks the line is, those are unprofitable bets for it to make. If you have to accept bets that you think are -EV for you simply to balance things out, then your book is undercapitalized.
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:28 PM   #288
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bazooka87 View Post
But then you're running into the same issue that people have been saying about Pats not playing any good offenses. Texans defense was elite, and Brady was bad that game. Two of their touchdowns were a kick return and Brock throwing an interception which ended up with Pats at the Texans 6
That's true but despite the fact they led the league in PPG people know Pats defense actually isn't really amazing BC of their schedule. Also Pats defenses tend to look ugly BC they play bend but don't break, are designed around not giving up big plays and tackling well but will often give up a bunch of dink and dunk stuff.
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Old 01-31-2017, 11:50 PM   #289
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DisGunBGud View Post
JMurder used ESPN and was working while working so entirely possible that there's some margin for error there but kicker better, punter better, return whatevs. At this point though I'm even telling myself I'm talking about special teams and to stfu because the MVP gonna make it all irrelevant.

Funny how you blame some Patriots fans for talking out of their asses when that's pretty much what you just did and have been doing for most of the season.
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Old 01-31-2017, 11:54 PM   #290
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod View Post
That's true but despite the fact they led the league in PPG people know Pats defense actually isn't really amazing BC of their schedule. Also Pats defenses tend to look ugly BC they play bend but don't break, are designed around not giving up big plays and tackling well but will often give up a bunch of dink and dunk stuff.
Oh yeah for sure. I'm bringing up points on why Pats won't win or why Falcons are better but at the end of the day still think Pats will win because Bill is Bill so Ryan will probably end up with ~50% completion and a 5 y/a or something
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Old 02-01-2017, 12:15 AM   #291
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Brady had a bad game vs the Texans who had a pretty good DL and a secondary that could cover. Thankfully Brady doesnt have to deal with either of those things this weekend.
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Old 02-01-2017, 12:18 AM   #292
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

All of Brady's 6 SBs have been decided by 4 or fewer, which is kind of nuts. Got this one ending that streak

Atlanta Falcons 31
The only team in USA named after a region 24
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Old 02-01-2017, 12:36 AM   #293
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by muttiah View Post
ATL is def less than 2% of NFL fans. I'd be surprised if it's more than 1%
Was interested in this. Best I could come up with after 11 minutes of research is:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-league-teams/

NFL Facebook Fans. Disclaimer: In no way am I defending this as a metric.

Cowboys 8.27 9.28%
Patriots 6.51 7.30%
Steelers 6.33 7.10%
Packers 5.26 5.90%
Broncos 4.40 4.93%
49ers 4.24 4.76%
Bears 4.13 4.63%
Saints 4.07 4.56%
Seahawks 3.95 4.43%
Giants 3.89 4.36%
Raiders 3.19 3.58%
Eagles 3.00 3.36%
Panthers 2.36 2.65%
Ravens 2.34 2.62%
Colts 2.27 2.55%
Dolphins 2.17 2.43%
Texans 2.13 2.39%
Vikings 2.02 2.27%
Jets 1.99 2.23%
Redskins 1.95 2.19%
Lions 1.89 2.12%
Falcons 1.83 2.05%
Chargers 1.70 1.91%
Chiefs 1.48 1.66%
Cardinals 1.38 1.55%
Browns 1.24 1.39%
Bengals 1.19 1.33%
Bucs 0.91 1.02%
Titans 0.91 1.02%
Bills 0.82 0.92%
Rams 0.76 0.85%
Jaguars 0.58 0.65%

89.16 100%

Someone should run a regression analysis with Super Bowl victories and number of fans. Perhaps add in expected number of fans based on geography. Obviously the Cowboys will have more fans than the Jaguars based on geography but something tells me 5 SBs vs 0 has a little something to do with it.
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Old 02-01-2017, 12:48 AM   #294
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.793134786
R Square 0.629062789

Adjusted R Square 0.616698215
Standard Error 1.15743635
Observations 32

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 68.15678288 68.15678288 50.87622132 6.19777E-08
Residual 30 40.18976712 1.339658904
Total 31 108.34655

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1.508220859 0.271972235 5.5454957 4.99516E-06 0.952779457 2.063662261 0.952779457 2.063662261
X Variable 1 0.81793865 0.114673563 7.132756923 6.19777E-08 0.583743992 1.052133309 0.583743992 1.052133309



RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals
1 5.59791411 2.67208589
2 4.77997546 1.73002454
3 6.415852761 -0.085852761
4 4.77997546 0.48002454
5 3.96203681 0.43796319
6 5.59791411 -1.35791411
7 2.326159509 1.803840491
8 2.326159509 1.743840491
9 2.326159509 1.623840491
10 4.77997546 -0.88997546
11 3.96203681 -0.77203681
12 1.508220859 1.491779141
13 1.508220859 0.851779141
14 3.14409816 -0.80409816
15 3.14409816 -0.87409816
16 3.14409816 -0.97409816
17 1.508220859 0.621779141
18 1.508220859 0.511779141
19 2.326159509 -0.336159509
20 3.96203681 -2.01203681
21 1.508220859 0.381779141
22 1.508220859 0.321779141
23 1.508220859 0.191779141
24 2.326159509 -0.846159509
25 1.508220859 -0.128220859
26 1.508220859 -0.268220859
27 1.508220859 -0.318220859
28 2.326159509 -1.416159509
29 1.508220859 -0.598220859
30 1.508220859 -0.688220859
31 2.326159509 -1.566159509
32 1.508220859 -0.928220859
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Old 02-01-2017, 12:53 AM   #295
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

A fun game is trying to guess/determine SB victories per team. When I did it I got the following results:

Spoiler:


My guess is the following teams will cause trouble:

Spoiler:
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Old 02-01-2017, 02:13 AM   #296
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prawney View Post
Brady had a bad game vs the Texans who had a pretty good DL and a secondary that could cover. Thankfully Brady doesnt have to deal with either of those things this weekend.
People are really sleeping on Falcons defense. For the overall season yeah they've been pretty bad but over the past month or so they've actually been quite good.

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Old 02-01-2017, 09:02 AM   #297
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bazooka87 View Post
People are really sleeping on Falcons defense. For the overall season yeah they've been pretty bad but over the past month or so they've actually been quite good.

They are very young for the most part

I can see them to continue coming together and performing well or completely shredded by elite veterans
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Old 02-01-2017, 10:04 AM   #298
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

pats defense legit one of the best in history
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Old 02-01-2017, 11:27 AM   #299
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GusJohnsonGOAT View Post
Funny how you blame some Patriots fans for talking out of their asses when that's pretty much what you just did and have been doing for most of the season.
Show your work
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Old 02-01-2017, 12:19 PM   #300
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I've heard that the reason the spread is only Pats -3 is because there is a good amount of tickets in which people took the Falcons preseason 150/1 to win the super bowl. Then that number dropped to 100/1 and people still fired. 80/1, 60/1, etc etc. So it may make sense for Vegas to want a lot of people to take the Pats to even out the money that way too.
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