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View Poll Results: What will be the outcome of the game?
Falcons win; over 37 32.17%
Falcons win; under 15 13.04%
Pats win, don't cover; over 3 2.61%
Pats win, don't cover; under 7 6.09%
Pats cover; over 20 17.39%
Pats cover; under 33 28.70%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-31-2017, 12:48 AM   #251
Ineedaride2
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod View Post
the only winning NFL betting strategy over the past 15 years has been to bet the Pats every time.

that, and fading Riverman
Looks like a stalemate at first glance, but I have never won money betting the Pats every time. Fading my man Riverman though...


Honestly, I'm just happy to be in the Superbowl again. Everything else is just icing. Expectations, baby. Monitor them.
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Old 01-31-2017, 12:54 AM   #252
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Report: Shanahan briefly lost Super Bowl game plan when reporter mistakenly took his bag
Oh come on, Bill isn't even trying anymore
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Old 01-31-2017, 12:59 AM   #253
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by bazooka87 View Post
Oh come on, Bill isn't even trying anymore
This kinda reminds how last week Dan Quinn said that the gameplan is already in place and in an interview Freeman said that the offense is gonna do what they do.

As a Pats fan i hope all that is true because if you go into a game planning on doing what you did all season and give BB to gameplan against then its game over.
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Old 01-31-2017, 01:01 AM   #254
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Freewill2112 View Post
Well yeah, Felger and Mazz isn't exactly known for its rigorous fact-checking. But in fairness it's the closest to an objective sports show that there is in the region.
Im not hating on the show. I listen to to prob 18 out of the 20hrs its on every week. The 2 hrs with Bedard prob my favourite part of radio all week. Was just chiming in coz i remember listening to it
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Old 01-31-2017, 01:04 AM   #255
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Prawney View Post
This kinda reminds how last week Dan Quinn said that the gameplan is already in place and in an interview Freeman said that the offense is gonna do what they do.

As a Pats fan i hope all that is true because if you go into a game planning on doing what you did all season and give BB to gameplan against then its game over.
I feel like he's going to level himself for the first time ever.

"Surely they won't just do what they've been doing. We need an alternate strategy."
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Old 01-31-2017, 01:31 AM   #256
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Ineedaride2 View Post
I feel like he's going to level himself for the first time ever.

"Surely they won't just do what they've been doing. We need an alternate strategy."
I know it sounds stupid but leading up to the AFCCG alot of people were making arguements as to why the steelers would win and most pats fans just said that the Steelers do what they do on D and Brady destroys it. Thats what happened.

I actually think Shanahan is really good so i think he will mix things up but at the same time im hoping they go into the game planning on using the same gameplan they had all year.
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:29 AM   #257
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Prawney View Post
Id be shocked if the line moves much unless its piling on the Pats. I mean i respect the Falcons offense but lets not pretend like the Pats offense cant match them score for score. Offense's are basically a wash whereas Pats have the clear edge on D and Special Teams.
I love the Pats as much as the next guy but lol at offenses being a wash. Falcons offense definitely better.
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:34 AM   #258
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by gs3737 View Post
I love the Pats as much as the next guy but lol at offenses being a wash. Falcons offense definitely better.
per DVOA it's a wash (counting Brady games only). Of course that also includes Gronk games.
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:37 AM   #259
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I agree with gs, but would also like to mention Dion Lewis, who didnt play until week 11 and didn't get double digit touches until week 15. He's no gronk, but he's a good weapon when they get him the ball
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:43 AM   #260
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod View Post
per DVOA it's a wash (counting Brady games only). Of course that also includes Gronk games.
No it's not.

EDIT: Hmm actually it's closer than what I thought, but during conference championships Pats were 22.5% and Falcons 29.4% on offense, not entirely sure how Falcons lose points for scoring 44 points even if it was against the Packers
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If we include all the postseason games, the Patriots are No. 1 and the Falcons are No. 2 in both weighted DVOA and total DVOA. Of course, total DVOA includes the four games when Tom Brady was suspended, so the Patriots have a much larger advantage in weighted DVOA.
In weighted DVOA, the Patriots are now at 40.8%. That can be split into 24.3% offense (3), -11.0% defense (6), and 5.5% special teams (5).
The Falcons are now at 24.2%. That can be split into 28.1% offense (1), 4.2% defense (22), and 0.3% special teams (17).
In total DVOA, the Patriots are now at 29.5%. That's split into 21.9% offense (2), -3.7% defense (12), and 3.8% special teams (7).
The Falcons are now at 21.5%. That's split into 26.6% offense (1), 6.8% defense (25), and 1.8% special teams (9).
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:47 AM   #261
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

With Gronk its really close. DVOA is fine, but imo just watching the two teams its clear that Atlanta's offense is better. That's not a knock on NE's top 5 offense. Its just not as good as the Falcons.
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:48 AM   #262
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by bazooka87 View Post
No it's not.

EDIT: Hmm actually it's closer than what I thought, but during conference championships Pats were 22.5% and Falcons 29.4% on offense, not entirely sure how Falcons lose points for scoring 44 points even if it was against the Packers
This. I appreciate DVOA but come on, they just scored at will in NFC Title Game and it went down??
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Old 01-31-2017, 11:00 AM   #263
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Why did the Patriots rate so much better than the Falcons when the two teams won by similar margins? Some of the secret can be found in the VOA ratings without opponent adjustments. You may notice there's a huge gap between Atlanta's offense and Green Bay's defense. We don't normally see that in the non-adjusted ratings. The reason is four different plays that come out as negative for the Falcons offense with no DVOA effect for Green Bay: two false starts by Andy Levitre and two botched snaps, both recovered by the Falcons. Throw in the Aaron Ripkowski fumble, and the Falcons went 3-for-3 on fumble recoveries. They also get no credit in DVOA for the missed Mason Crosby field goal, and they were surprisingly poor running the ball aginst the Packers, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry on running back carries in the first half before they were even running out the clock.
Seems a little harsh
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Old 01-31-2017, 11:45 AM   #264
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by gs3737 View Post
With Gronk its really close. DVOA is fine, but imo just watching the two teams its clear that Atlanta's offense is better. That's not a knock on NE's top 5 offense. Its just not as good as the Falcons.
eye test is tough bc most people don't bother to adjust for opponent strength (or doing so is hard). The Falcons offense sure looked better during the conference championship games but the Steelers defense is far better than the Packers defense. and the week before - the Texans defense was legit elite (the exact opposite of the Houston offense), far better than the Earl Thomas less Seahawks defense

that said, Falcons scored TD on 6/8 meaningful possessions vs Packers (FG, punt on the other 2) so for that to hurt their offensive DVOA seems...wrong. I think it must have to do something with an even more monster game earlier in the season counting less now? maybe the game where they scored 48 vs the Panthers or something like that

Last edited by Kneel B4 Zod; 01-31-2017 at 11:58 AM.
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Old 01-31-2017, 12:27 PM   #265
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Not just the past couple of weeks, but watching them both all season.

Don't get me wrong...Pats defense is clearly better and I think they will win on Sunday. But in a vaccum Falcons offense is better. I don't think anyone is seriously arguing that.
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Old 01-31-2017, 01:50 PM   #266
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
Falcons were like 40 or 50 to 1, ie somewhat worse than league-average, which is how they were viewed. Betting on the team would not have been especially heavy (they dont have an especially huge or enthusiastic fanbase). Betting on the SB would dwarf any futures bets. And books typically don't attempt to balance their betting anyway, thats a myth.

The line is Pats -3 because thats a fair line.
They don't?

Then what DO they do? Sit around the office all day and play Scrabble?
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Old 01-31-2017, 01:52 PM   #267
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I wanna kno how dumbass Pats fan thinks his squads special teams over mine. Eat a big fat ****ing dick to that notion. So over any Pats fan at this point. Pompous pricks.

Literally the only fanbase in the world who could lose TWO Super Bowls to Eli Manning and still act like their **** doesn't stink.

And you guys really think Rog gonna let Brady get the best of him during a season where he was suspended? The call has already been made. No tears when it goes down, you dig?
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Old 01-31-2017, 01:56 PM   #268
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Wow someone is angry.

I thought Atlanta fans were content with the non stop losing?
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Old 01-31-2017, 01:58 PM   #269
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

You really need to up your troll game.
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:21 PM   #270
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Not everyone can be as subtle as Prawney
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:30 PM   #271
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Yeah trying way too hard now. Reads like the script for the antagonist in an episode of Family Matters.
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:37 PM   #272
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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They don't?

Then what DO they do? Sit around the office all day and play Scrabble?
this is one of those things that is cause for frequent confusion bc the answer is...somewhere in the middle. books frequently just try balance the money but will also sometimes take positions on one side or the other and not care about balancing the money

source: friend who was a market maker at one of the big offshore books.

though for the Super Bow, it's such a huge event that I think most are just balancing the money, bc getting it wrong would be pretty bad. taking positions is more common when the money is smaller.
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Old 01-31-2017, 04:38 PM   #273
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Yeah trying way too hard now. Reads like the script for the antagonist in an episode of Family Matters.
If you're referencing me then let's try a different approach. Mr. Pats fan who clearly doesn't have a pot to piss in says Pats ST's >>> Falcons ST's. LAUGHABLE! Why you ask?

KICKER: Raw numbers clearly indicate Matt Bryant had a better year than Stephen Gostkowski. And yes every Pat slappy will scream out but your guys kicks in a dome, that isn't fair, wah wah wah. True he does kick in a dome but he also did miss less attempts while putting in more volume. Also I watched Gostkowski kick a ton this year and this guy was missing kicks he usually makes in his sleep. POINT FALCONS!

PUNTER: Something about the Patriots punter pinning people deep in their own territory non stop was mentioned earlier in this thread. Doesn't surprise me it's another fallacy created by New England pole smokers. Not only did Matt Bosher (Atlanta's punter) knock 29 punts out of his 66 inside the 20 this year but he's 2nd in the league in average punt distance. Case in point the man is a beast. As for New England's guy? He averages a middling league average in distance and actually has less punts pinned inside the 20 but has 14 more attempts. Not to mention over half of his punts have been returned this year. Usually not a great thing. POINT FALCONS!

RETURN: I'll keep this short and sweet. The Falcons are top 10 in average return yards on both kick and punt returns. The Patriots are basically dead last in both categories. POINT FALCONS!

CONCLUSION: SWEEP FALCONS! But please Pats homers and Pats guy tell me how your Special Teams is better than ours, how your offense is basically a wash against our juggernaut of a unit and how your defense is actually good even though it played a bunch of Pop Warner QB's this year.
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Old 01-31-2017, 04:48 PM   #274
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Prawney View Post
This kinda reminds how last week Dan Quinn said that the gameplan is already in place and in an interview Freeman said that the offense is gonna do what they do.

As a Pats fan i hope all that is true because if you go into a game planning on doing what you did all season and give BB to gameplan against then its game over.
Yea even though Eli hit up Matt Ryan giving him the exact advice to do what you do, don't change things up and go out of your way to do so. Remind me how many times did BB beat Eli in the Super Bowl? You literally have zero ****ing clue about the opponent you're playing Sunday bro.
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Old 01-31-2017, 04:49 PM   #275
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

now i dont even know if i want to watch the game


Just kidding, that was a lot better. Still looking forward to quoting all the earlier stuff When NE runs a train on your defense though.
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