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View Poll Results: What will be the outcome of the game?
Falcons win; over 37 32.17%
Falcons win; under 15 13.04%
Pats win, don't cover; over 3 2.61%
Pats win, don't cover; under 7 6.09%
Pats cover; over 20 17.39%
Pats cover; under 33 28.70%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-29-2017, 10:10 PM   #226
hard2tel
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by youtalkfunny View Post
I am a Pats fan who is anticipating a game where ATL does just that. I'm expecting the ATL offense to be in the red zone a LOT.

If those drives get 7's, they win.
If those drives get 3's, they lose.

Bardy is gonna get a lot of 7's against this ATL red zone D.
ATL offense is gonna need to be almost perfect in red zone to win this game.

It's hard to get 7's against this Pats red zone D. That's why you keep reading about how good this team's SCORING defense is.
Yea. Pretty sure that'll be the key to the game really. Is there a specific thing they do well in the red zone that produces more FGs than usual? Seems like a situation where there would be a lot of variance.
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Old 01-30-2017, 06:36 AM   #227
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

The only thing I can think of, that makes them different from other teams: they don't commit penalties. You almost never hear the words "automatic first down" in these spots. They never need to stop seven plays down there, they're off the field in three.
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Old 01-30-2017, 07:45 AM   #228
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by DisGunBGud View Post
We know we're going to win the game. We're acting accordingly. At least that's where I stand.
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Originally Posted by wombat4hire View Post
Falcons are gonna win and NE is overrated.
Hot takes. We shall see....
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Old 01-30-2017, 07:58 AM   #229
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by youtalkfunny View Post
The only thing I can think of, that makes them different from other teams: they don't commit penalties. You almost never hear the words "automatic first down" in these spots. They never need to stop seven plays down there, they're off the field in three.
Commit is the wrong word.
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Old 01-30-2017, 08:16 AM   #230
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

lol they have the same red zone touchdown % on defense as Indy, they're above average but nothing special. They're tied sixth but they're closer to Miami in 23rd than the Giants in first.

Biggest difference is how far opponents have to go to get points. So few turnovers means teams need 50+ yards just to get in the red zone way more often than other teams. They have the fewest turnovers in the league this year tied with....the Falcons. Who coincidentally are last in red zone touchdown % on defense!
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Old 01-30-2017, 08:44 AM   #231
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Doesn't the commissioner hand the trophy to the owner and not the quarterback anyway
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Old 01-30-2017, 11:36 AM   #232
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Doesn't the commissioner hand the trophy to the owner and not the quarterback anyway
Yes. Dan Patrick was talking about that last week. It's usually the Owner, HC, QB, MVP on the podium and the Commish gives it to the owner.
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Old 01-30-2017, 11:42 AM   #233
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Kraft should just pretend to be drunk again and tell Brady to accept it for him
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Old 01-30-2017, 12:06 PM   #234
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

If pats win and brady gets mvp then the following day there is a press conference with just roger and the mvp. That would be the awkward experience everyone wants
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Old 01-30-2017, 03:01 PM   #235
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Looks like we got Riverman and AJ both on the pats, which is VERY good news for Falcons fans? Any other objective non-homers want to weigh in with picks? Seeing how much I need to load up on ATL
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Old 01-30-2017, 04:29 PM   #236
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I'm also on the pats and I'm something like 1-9 on the playoffs
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Old 01-30-2017, 05:52 PM   #237
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Fading caldarooni is like a license to print money. Feeling real good.
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Old 01-30-2017, 06:23 PM   #238
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

the only winning NFL betting strategy over the past 15 years has been to bet the Pats every time.

that, and fading Riverman
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Old 01-30-2017, 07:31 PM   #239
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by C-Viggity View Post
Looks like we got Riverman and AJ both on the pats, which is VERY good news for Falcons fans? Any other objective non-homers want to weigh in with picks? Seeing how much I need to load up on ATL
I'm on Atlanta +3. Only bet on Clemson and Atlanta this season...feeling good.
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Old 01-30-2017, 09:26 PM   #240
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

I was listening to local radio here in New England, and they advanced an interesting theory as to why the line has stayed at Atlanta +3. The 2nd most-heavily-bet future for the 2016 season was for Atlanta to win the SB, at 150:1. So the handicappers are keeping the line low to get more money to come in on New England, in order to hedge against possibly having to pay out heavily if Atlanta wins.

I'm certainly no sharp but that does make sense to me.
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Old 01-30-2017, 09:31 PM   #241
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Highly doubt Atlanta was the 2nd most heavily bet SB future.

Doubt it was even top 10 or top 15. That team had no hype going into the year.

Also don't think they were ever 150-1. Probably opened season around 60 or 70-1 at highest.

but obviously lol boston sports media

Last edited by Onlydo2days; 01-30-2017 at 09:39 PM.
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Old 01-30-2017, 09:47 PM   #242
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Originally Posted by Freewill2112 View Post
I was listening to local radio here in New England, and they advanced an interesting theory as to why the line has stayed at Atlanta +3. The 2nd most-heavily-bet future for the 2016 season was for Atlanta to win the SB, at 150:1. So the handicappers are keeping the line low to get more money to come in on New England, in order to hedge against possibly having to pay out heavily if Atlanta wins.

I'm certainly no sharp but that does make sense to me.
Was listening to the same show when Mazz read out the callers email saying that

Im not saying its wrong or right but im like 100% sure i heard somewhere else that the only team that got less bets to win the superbowl preseason than the falcons were the Browns. So maybe the caller got it backwards.
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Old 01-30-2017, 09:57 PM   #243
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

The article I found said more people bet the Browns than the Falcons. Looks like Falcons were 40-1 preseason and 80-1 in week 1.

It's still possible that the books stand to lose more if the Falcons win than if the Pats win, since the Pats were only 8-1 and 6-1, respectively
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Old 01-30-2017, 09:57 PM   #244
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Falcons were like 40 or 50 to 1, ie somewhat worse than league-average, which is how they were viewed. Betting on the team would not have been especially heavy (they dont have an especially huge or enthusiastic fanbase). Betting on the SB would dwarf any futures bets. And books typically don't attempt to balance their betting anyway, thats a myth.

The line is Pats -3 because thats a fair line.
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Old 01-30-2017, 10:16 PM   #245
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

The line movement on Saturday and Sunday will be fun to watch.
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Old 01-30-2017, 10:23 PM   #246
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

Id be shocked if the line moves much unless its piling on the Pats. I mean i respect the Falcons offense but lets not pretend like the Pats offense cant match them score for score. Offense's are basically a wash whereas Pats have the clear edge on D and Special Teams.
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Old 01-30-2017, 10:36 PM   #247
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Falcons were like 40 or 50 to 1, ie somewhat worse than league-average, which is how they were viewed. Betting on the team would not have been especially heavy (they dont have an especially huge or enthusiastic fanbase). Betting on the SB would dwarf any futures bets. And books typically don't attempt to balance their betting anyway, thats a myth.

The line is Pats -3 because thats a fair line.
yeah, all this too.

futures action is just nothing compared to SB.
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Old 01-30-2017, 10:36 PM   #248
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

How do Pats have clear edge on Special Teams? Just quick glance at DVOA (obviously not everything but still) Falcons have a bigger edge on offense (Falcons 1, Pats 2) than Pats do on special teams (Pats 7, Falcons 8)
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Old 01-30-2017, 10:54 PM   #249
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Id be shocked if the line moves much unless its piling on the Pats. I mean i respect the Falcons offense but lets not pretend like the Pats offense cant match them score for score. Offense's are basically a wash whereas Pats have the clear edge on D and Special Teams.
They are not basically a wash. Falcons have clear superiority on offense in a vacuum.

But that doesn't mean Pats can't match them score for score because of reasons, sure.
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Old 01-30-2017, 11:19 PM   #250
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Re: SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

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Was listening to the same show when Mazz read out the callers email saying that

Im not saying its wrong or right but im like 100% sure i heard somewhere else that the only team that got less bets to win the superbowl preseason than the falcons were the Browns. So maybe the caller got it backwards.
Well yeah, Felger and Mazz isn't exactly known for its rigorous fact-checking. But in fairness it's the closest to an objective sports show that there is in the region.
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