SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58) - Page 10 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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SUPER BOWL LI: GOOD (+3) vs. EVIL (o/u 58)

View Poll Results: What will be the outcome of the game?

Falcons win; over

37 32.17%

Falcons win; under

15 13.04%

Pats win, don't cover; over

3 2.61%

Pats win, don't cover; under

7 6.09%

Pats cover; over

20 17.39%

Pats cover; under

33 28.70%

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01-29-2017 , 10:10 PM

#226

hard2tel

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 15,750

Quote:

Originally Posted by youtalkfunny

I am a Pats fan who is anticipating a game where ATL does just that. I'm expecting the ATL offense to be in the red zone a LOT.

If those drives get 7's, they win.
If those drives get 3's, they lose.

Bardy is gonna get a lot of 7's against this ATL red zone D.
ATL offense is gonna need to be almost perfect in red zone to win this game.

It's hard to get 7's against this Pats red zone D. That's why you keep reading about how good this team's SCORING defense is.

Yea. Pretty sure that'll be the key to the game really. Is there a specific thing they do well in the red zone that produces more FGs than usual? Seems like a situation where there would be a lot of variance.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 06:36 AM

#227

youtalkfunny

dumbest smart person his mom knows

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 21,758

The only thing I can think of, that makes them different from other teams: they don't commit penalties. You almost never hear the words "automatic first down" in these spots. They never need to stop seven plays down there, they're off the field in three.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 07:45 AM

#228

RichGangi

Laughable false & highly douchey

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by DisGunBGud

We know we're going to win the game. We're acting accordingly. At least that's where I stand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wombat4hire

Falcons are gonna win and NE is overrated.

Hot takes. We shall see....

Quote

01-30-2017 , 07:58 AM

#229

RunninCM

banned

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 1,114

Quote:

Originally Posted by youtalkfunny

Commit is the wrong word.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 08:16 AM

#230

bazooka87

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 22,049

lol they have the same red zone touchdown % on defense as Indy, they're above average but nothing special. They're tied sixth but they're closer to Miami in 23rd than the Giants in first.

Biggest difference is how far opponents have to go to get points. So few turnovers means teams need 50+ yards just to get in the red zone way more often than other teams. They have the fewest turnovers in the league this year tied with....the Falcons. Who coincidentally are last in red zone touchdown % on defense!

Quote

01-30-2017 , 08:44 AM

#231

JudgeHoldem

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 8,197

Doesn't the commissioner hand the trophy to the owner and not the quarterback anyway

Quote

01-30-2017 , 11:36 AM

#232

electricladylnd

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,549

Quote:

Originally Posted by JudgeHoldem

Doesn't the commissioner hand the trophy to the owner and not the quarterback anyway

Yes. Dan Patrick was talking about that last week. It's usually the Owner, HC, QB, MVP on the podium and the Commish gives it to the owner.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 11:42 AM

#233

ANONN123

Guest

Posts: n/a

Kraft should just pretend to be drunk again and tell Brady to accept it for him

Quote

01-30-2017 , 12:06 PM

#234

Prawney

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 5,646

If pats win and brady gets mvp then the following day there is a press conference with just roger and the mvp. That would be the awkward experience everyone wants

Quote

01-30-2017 , 03:01 PM

#235

C-Viggity

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Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 28,622

Looks like we got Riverman and AJ both on the pats, which is VERY good news for Falcons fans? Any other objective non-homers want to weigh in with picks? Seeing how much I need to load up on ATL

Quote

01-30-2017 , 04:29 PM

#236

Caldarooni

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 25,001

I'm also on the pats and I'm something like 1-9 on the playoffs

Quote

01-30-2017 , 05:52 PM

#237

DisGunBGud

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Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 23,708

Fading caldarooni is like a license to print money. Feeling real good.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 06:23 PM

#238

Kneel B4 Zod

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 27,952

the only winning NFL betting strategy over the past 15 years has been to bet the Pats every time.

that, and fading Riverman

Quote

01-30-2017 , 07:31 PM

#239

wombat4hire

in touch with humanity

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,940

Quote:

Originally Posted by C-Viggity

Looks like we got Riverman and AJ both on the pats, which is VERY good news for Falcons fans? Any other objective non-homers want to weigh in with picks? Seeing how much I need to load up on ATL

I'm on Atlanta +3. Only bet on Clemson and Atlanta this season...feeling good.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 09:26 PM

#240

Freewill2112

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,372

I was listening to local radio here in New England, and they advanced an interesting theory as to why the line has stayed at Atlanta +3. The 2nd most-heavily-bet future for the 2016 season was for Atlanta to win the SB, at 150:1. So the handicappers are keeping the line low to get more money to come in on New England, in order to hedge against possibly having to pay out heavily if Atlanta wins.

I'm certainly no sharp but that does make sense to me.

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01-30-2017 , 09:31 PM

#241

Onlydo2days

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Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,298

Highly doubt Atlanta was the 2nd most heavily bet SB future.

Doubt it was even top 10 or top 15. That team had no hype going into the year.

Also don't think they were ever 150-1. Probably opened season around 60 or 70-1 at highest.

but obviously lol boston sports media

Last edited by Onlydo2days; 01-30-2017 at 09:39 PM.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 09:47 PM

#242

Prawney

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 5,646

Quote:

Originally Posted by Freewill2112

Was listening to the same show when Mazz read out the callers email saying that

Im not saying its wrong or right but im like 100% sure i heard somewhere else that the only team that got less bets to win the superbowl preseason than the falcons were the Browns. So maybe the caller got it backwards.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 09:57 PM

#243

ANONN123

Guest

Posts: n/a

The article I found said more people bet the Browns than the Falcons. Looks like Falcons were 40-1 preseason and 80-1 in week 1.

It's still possible that the books stand to lose more if the Falcons win than if the Pats win, since the Pats were only 8-1 and 6-1, respectively

Quote

01-30-2017 , 09:57 PM

#244

ChrisV

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Falcons were like 40 or 50 to 1, ie somewhat worse than league-average, which is how they were viewed. Betting on the team would not have been especially heavy (they dont have an especially huge or enthusiastic fanbase). Betting on the SB would dwarf any futures bets. And books typically don't attempt to balance their betting anyway, thats a myth.

The line is Pats -3 because thats a fair line.

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01-30-2017 , 10:16 PM

#245

wombat4hire

in touch with humanity

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 6,940

The line movement on Saturday and Sunday will be fun to watch.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 10:23 PM

#246

Prawney

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 5,646

Id be shocked if the line moves much unless its piling on the Pats. I mean i respect the Falcons offense but lets not pretend like the Pats offense cant match them score for score. Offense's are basically a wash whereas Pats have the clear edge on D and Special Teams.

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01-30-2017 , 10:36 PM

#247

Onlydo2days

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Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

yeah, all this too.

futures action is just nothing compared to SB.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 10:36 PM

#248

bazooka87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 22,049

How do Pats have clear edge on Special Teams? Just quick glance at DVOA (obviously not everything but still) Falcons have a bigger edge on offense (Falcons 1, Pats 2) than Pats do on special teams (Pats 7, Falcons 8)

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01-30-2017 , 10:54 PM

#249

hard2tel

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 15,750

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prawney

They are not basically a wash. Falcons have clear superiority on offense in a vacuum.

But that doesn't mean Pats can't match them score for score because of reasons, sure.

Quote

01-30-2017 , 11:19 PM

#250

Freewill2112

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prawney

Well yeah, Felger and Mazz isn't exactly known for its rigorous fact-checking. But in fairness it's the closest to an objective sports show that there is in the region.

Quote

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