Sports Media Discussion (RIP ESPN) - Page 6 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Bill Simmons
(4:19 PM)

8. If I'm a Pitt fan, I'm looking at our recent stretch of playoff games and noticing an ongoing theme - getting lucky at the right time over and over again. Pitt-Indy in 2005, Pitt-Balt last week, Pitt-Balt in 2008, Zona-Pitt in 2008... since 2004, only their 2007 Jags game was one of those "Everything's going wrong in this game" playoff games. They're overdue. Specifically, Roethlisberger/Tomlin is overdue. The NFL is too equal these days, you can't keep expecting the breaks to go your way like that. Eventually, it turns. Just ask the Patriots.

I mean this really isn't even arguable it is so LOLbad. It is like a bad Riverman post which, up until this point, I thought was nearly impossible to get worse than.

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01-22-2011 , 01:36 PM

#127

72off

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Pwn_Master

...but think you are knowledgable about gambling...

what ever gave you that indication?

yes, i failed to realize that the difference between 4 and 6 was so meaningless, but now that you explained it, and i've actually given it some thought it certainly makes sense. a million apologies.

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01-22-2011 , 03:59 PM

#128

nath

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Quote:

Originally Posted by agdci981

From "The Sports Guys'" recent chat:

I mean this really isn't even arguable it is so LOLbad. It is like a bad Riverman post which, up until this point, I thought was nearly impossible to get worse than.

It sounds like he's saying "variance can be high in the playoffs, and the Steelers have been on the positive side of that variance since 2004," which is a pretty reasonable statement.

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01-22-2011 , 04:01 PM

#129

72off

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yeah, but then i guess he's basically saying that the coin has gone heads several times in a row...SO IT'S GOTTA BE TAILS THIS TIME!!!

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01-22-2011 , 04:06 PM

#130

TheNoodleMan

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I'm sure Troy P would disagree that they got all the lucky breaks in the Indy game.

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01-22-2011 , 04:11 PM

#131

nath

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 72off

yeah, but then i guess he's basically saying that the coin has gone heads several times in a row...SO IT'S GOTTA BE TAILS THIS TIME!!!

Right, the "overdue" part is stupid, but if you're going to try to predict an outcome, you have to be able to differentiate between what's repeatable and what's variance.

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01-22-2011 , 04:42 PM

#132

agdci981

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nath

It sounds like he's saying "variance can be high in the playoffs, and the Steelers have been on the positive side of that variance since 2004," which is a pretty reasonable statement.

But I don't see variance in any of those games. I mean don't you think the Steelers were on the wrong side of variance when Polamalu had what was a pretty clear INT overturned and then Bettis fumbles when they are running out the clock against Indy? Also, not sure what "The Sports Guy" was watching last week because when you are on the team that givves up 1.9 yards per rush and 2.6 yards per pass play I am pretty sure you didn't rely on "luck."

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01-22-2011 , 05:05 PM

#133

Victor

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ravens very easily coulda won that game. how repeatable is boldin dropping a near clinching td? how repeatable is roeth and crew converting a 3rd and 19?

ofc, ravens had their share of luck to be in such a position considering how poor their offense played.

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01-22-2011 , 05:09 PM

#134

agdci981

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Victor

LOL...look at the numbers from that game.

Main point in posting that: "The NFL is too equal these days, you can't keep expecting the breaks to go your way like that. Eventually, it turns."

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01-22-2011 , 06:00 PM

#135

Dids

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Seems like all he's saying is "Pitt has rode variance to a potentially undeserved reputation and they're not that much better and will eventually lose one of these close games".

You can find him saying stupider things.

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01-22-2011 , 06:02 PM

#136

TheGameAu

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Yeah but its extra stupid if he says something negative about Pittsburgh!

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01-22-2011 , 06:04 PM

#137

Victor

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Dids

its the perceived implication that pitt is more likely to "run bad" in the future bc they benefited from positive variance in the past that is irking ppl. whether or not that is a true reflection of simmons position is up for debate.

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01-22-2011 , 06:11 PM

#138

Green Kool Aid

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Just wanted to add another WOW(!) to Simmons's comment about Ray Allen's TS/USG ratio. That might be his worst comment of all time.

That's something that even the most casual sports fan will talk about: the fact that when you shoot more your percentage will go down.

We should ask him how Tyson Chandler maintains such a high TS% (.722) despite a comically low USG (12.6)

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01-22-2011 , 06:20 PM

#139

Victor

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i kinda doubt simmons doesnt realize that relationship. seems more likely it was poor edit or carelessness.

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01-22-2011 , 06:55 PM

#140

nath

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Victor

Right, I think this part was more to his point, though:

Quote:

The NFL is too equal these days, you can't keep expecting the breaks to go your way like that.

Which is true in that the margins between teams are small enough that some run good/bad either direction can easily influence the outcome.

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01-22-2011 , 07:41 PM

#141

MacGuyV

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Quote:

Originally Posted by agdci981

Right, they should've won that game. The Palmer injury & officiating in the SB otoh were nice breaks.

It's still kind of a stupid point to say "other than ___ they haven't had an unlucky playoff game". NE hasn't had any either other than the Denver game. He brings up a failed 3rd&3 @Indy that would've iced the game every week but he never mentions the Chargers should've killed them the week before.

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01-22-2011 , 07:43 PM

#142

Victor

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gawd the palmer injury was like the biggest play of steelers history. such bs.

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01-23-2011 , 01:41 PM

#143

SnotBoogy

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ii love that simmons went against all his own theories and took the packers -3.5

sets up total win win for him.

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01-25-2011 , 09:34 PM

#144

Yeti

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jacoby is so awful

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01-31-2011 , 09:13 PM

#145

tabbaker

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Lombardi basically picked both teams to win

And Schatz is an indecisive moron

Last edited by tabbaker; 01-31-2011 at 09:23 PM.

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01-31-2011 , 09:47 PM

#146

Yeti

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part 1 of today's mega podcast.

4:35 in, listen for bill or the producer taking a bong hit

spotted by vagos!

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01-31-2011 , 10:00 PM

#147

Jack of Arcades

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tabbaker

Lombardi basically picked both teams to win

And Schatz is an indecisive moron

DVOA rates this the closest of SBs in DVOA history, I believe (didn't listen to the podcast).

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01-31-2011 , 10:02 PM

#148

kkcountry

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeti

part 1 of today's mega podcast.

4:35 in, listen for bill or the producer taking a bong hit

spotted by vagos!

lollllllll

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01-31-2011 , 10:05 PM

#149

D104

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Yeti

part 1 of today's mega podcast.

4:35 in, listen for bill or the producer taking a bong hit

spotted by vagos!

amazing find, LOL

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01-31-2011 , 10:18 PM

#150

g-bebe

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lol

gotta be bill

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