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Old 01-22-2011, 01:13 PM   #126
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

From "The Sports Guys'" recent chat:
Quote:
Bill Simmons
(4:19 PM)


8. If I'm a Pitt fan, I'm looking at our recent stretch of playoff games and noticing an ongoing theme - getting lucky at the right time over and over again. Pitt-Indy in 2005, Pitt-Balt last week, Pitt-Balt in 2008, Zona-Pitt in 2008... since 2004, only their 2007 Jags game was one of those "Everything's going wrong in this game" playoff games. They're overdue. Specifically, Roethlisberger/Tomlin is overdue. The NFL is too equal these days, you can't keep expecting the breaks to go your way like that. Eventually, it turns. Just ask the Patriots.
I mean this really isn't even arguable it is so LOLbad. It is like a bad Riverman post which, up until this point, I thought was nearly impossible to get worse than.
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Old 01-22-2011, 01:36 PM   #127
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

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Originally Posted by Pwn_Master View Post
...but think you are knowledgable about gambling...
what ever gave you that indication?

yes, i failed to realize that the difference between 4 and 6 was so meaningless, but now that you explained it, and i've actually given it some thought it certainly makes sense. a million apologies.
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Old 01-22-2011, 03:59 PM   #128
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by agdci981 View Post
From "The Sports Guys'" recent chat:

I mean this really isn't even arguable it is so LOLbad. It is like a bad Riverman post which, up until this point, I thought was nearly impossible to get worse than.
It sounds like he's saying "variance can be high in the playoffs, and the Steelers have been on the positive side of that variance since 2004," which is a pretty reasonable statement.
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Old 01-22-2011, 04:01 PM   #129
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

yeah, but then i guess he's basically saying that the coin has gone heads several times in a row...SO IT'S GOTTA BE TAILS THIS TIME!!!
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Old 01-22-2011, 04:06 PM   #130
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

I'm sure Troy P would disagree that they got all the lucky breaks in the Indy game.
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Old 01-22-2011, 04:11 PM   #131
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

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yeah, but then i guess he's basically saying that the coin has gone heads several times in a row...SO IT'S GOTTA BE TAILS THIS TIME!!!
Right, the "overdue" part is stupid, but if you're going to try to predict an outcome, you have to be able to differentiate between what's repeatable and what's variance.
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Old 01-22-2011, 04:42 PM   #132
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

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It sounds like he's saying "variance can be high in the playoffs, and the Steelers have been on the positive side of that variance since 2004," which is a pretty reasonable statement.
But I don't see variance in any of those games. I mean don't you think the Steelers were on the wrong side of variance when Polamalu had what was a pretty clear INT overturned and then Bettis fumbles when they are running out the clock against Indy? Also, not sure what "The Sports Guy" was watching last week because when you are on the team that givves up 1.9 yards per rush and 2.6 yards per pass play I am pretty sure you didn't rely on "luck."
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Old 01-22-2011, 05:05 PM   #133
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

ravens very easily coulda won that game. how repeatable is boldin dropping a near clinching td? how repeatable is roeth and crew converting a 3rd and 19?

ofc, ravens had their share of luck to be in such a position considering how poor their offense played.
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Old 01-22-2011, 05:09 PM   #134
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

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ravens very easily coulda won that game. how repeatable is boldin dropping a near clinching td? how repeatable is roeth and crew converting a 3rd and 19?

ofc, ravens had their share of luck to be in such a position considering how poor their offense played.
LOL...look at the numbers from that game.

Main point in posting that: "The NFL is too equal these days, you can't keep expecting the breaks to go your way like that. Eventually, it turns."
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Old 01-22-2011, 06:00 PM   #135
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

Seems like all he's saying is "Pitt has rode variance to a potentially undeserved reputation and they're not that much better and will eventually lose one of these close games".

You can find him saying stupider things.
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Old 01-22-2011, 06:02 PM   #136
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

Yeah but its extra stupid if he says something negative about Pittsburgh!
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Old 01-22-2011, 06:04 PM   #137
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

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Seems like all he's saying is "Pitt has rode variance to a potentially undeserved reputation and they're not that much better and will eventually lose one of these close games".

You can find him saying stupider things.
its the perceived implication that pitt is more likely to "run bad" in the future bc they benefited from positive variance in the past that is irking ppl. whether or not that is a true reflection of simmons position is up for debate.
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Old 01-22-2011, 06:11 PM   #138
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

Just wanted to add another WOW(!) to Simmons's comment about Ray Allen's TS/USG ratio. That might be his worst comment of all time.

That's something that even the most casual sports fan will talk about: the fact that when you shoot more your percentage will go down.

We should ask him how Tyson Chandler maintains such a high TS% (.722) despite a comically low USG (12.6)
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Old 01-22-2011, 06:20 PM   #139
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

i kinda doubt simmons doesnt realize that relationship. seems more likely it was poor edit or carelessness.
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Old 01-22-2011, 06:55 PM   #140
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor View Post
its the perceived implication that pitt is more likely to "run bad" in the future bc they benefited from positive variance in the past that is irking ppl. whether or not that is a true reflection of simmons position is up for debate.
Right, I think this part was more to his point, though:
Quote:
The NFL is too equal these days, you can't keep expecting the breaks to go your way like that.
Which is true in that the margins between teams are small enough that some run good/bad either direction can easily influence the outcome.
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Old 01-22-2011, 07:41 PM   #141
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

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Originally Posted by agdci981 View Post
But I don't see variance in any of those games. I mean don't you think the Steelers were on the wrong side of variance when Polamalu had what was a pretty clear INT overturned and then Bettis fumbles when they are running out the clock against Indy?
Right, they should've won that game. The Palmer injury & officiating in the SB otoh were nice breaks.

It's still kind of a stupid point to say "other than ___ they haven't had an unlucky playoff game". NE hasn't had any either other than the Denver game. He brings up a failed 3rd&3 @Indy that would've iced the game every week but he never mentions the Chargers should've killed them the week before.
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Old 01-22-2011, 07:43 PM   #142
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

gawd the palmer injury was like the biggest play of steelers history. such bs.
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:41 PM   #143
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

ii love that simmons went against all his own theories and took the packers -3.5

sets up total win win for him.
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Old 01-25-2011, 09:34 PM   #144
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

jacoby is so awful
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Old 01-31-2011, 09:13 PM   #145
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

Lombardi basically picked both teams to win

And Schatz is an indecisive moron

Last edited by tabbaker; 01-31-2011 at 09:23 PM.
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Old 01-31-2011, 09:47 PM   #146
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

part 1 of today's mega podcast.

4:35 in, listen for bill or the producer taking a bong hit

spotted by vagos!
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Old 01-31-2011, 10:00 PM   #147
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by tabbaker View Post
Lombardi basically picked both teams to win

And Schatz is an indecisive moron
DVOA rates this the closest of SBs in DVOA history, I believe (didn't listen to the podcast).
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Old 01-31-2011, 10:02 PM   #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti View Post
part 1 of today's mega podcast.

4:35 in, listen for bill or the producer taking a bong hit

spotted by vagos!
lollllllll
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Old 01-31-2011, 10:05 PM   #149
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeti View Post
part 1 of today's mega podcast.

4:35 in, listen for bill or the producer taking a bong hit

spotted by vagos!
amazing find, LOL
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Old 01-31-2011, 10:18 PM   #150
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Re: Bill Simmons/Sports Guy Containment Thread

lol

gotta be bill
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