Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeIshmael
KB4Z,
"how could those 2 things possibly be equally likely?"
There is a 50% chance that OKC wins by 15+.
There is a 50% chance that Memphis wins.
There is a 0% chance that OKC wins by less than 15.
I dont think that those things are true, but I get the sense that people think there is some huge logic fail here when all he is saying is "OKC will never win a close game." Again, there is no way that is top quartile of dumbness for sports people.
Imagine a rec-league game was coming up between two teams, one of whom is 0-20 in the league and another of whom is 21-0. Lebron James is a good buddy of one of the guys on the bad team and has told him he will join the team for the game, provided he isnt busy. The game is in to be played June 2, so he will be busy if the Heat make the finals.
That "real life" example is not far off of a match for the statement simmons made.
- there is a 50% chance it will be sunny and 80 tomorrow in Boston, and a 50% chance it will snow a foot
- there is a 50% chance the high will be 55 and rain a bit, and a 50% chance the high will be 58 and it won't rain at all
one of those is a ludicrous prediction, the other is perfectly fine. the devil is in the details. if Simmons had changed "15" to "5" then it's fine, but when you throw #'s in your example they better be reasonable or else you look ridiculous. the line was -OKC 6.5 which means the distribution of most likely results falls right under this #, which is exactly the scenario Simmons said was LEAST likely. and I realize dumber things are said frequently, but I'm just debating the Yes/No of whether or not this is dumb, not trying to rank it on the ultimate dumb scale
Last edited by Kneel B4 Zod; 05-17-2011 at 09:15 PM.