Did anyone see the
Klosterman article on Grantland today?
This chunk of it definitely made me say "wtf are you talking about?"
Quote:
Perhaps you think this is an imaginary problem. Perhaps you say, "Just don't worry about it and the problem will disappear." Maybe so. But the conflict keeps coming up in weird ways. The most consistent trouble spot involves the rise of advanced statistics, and specifically how much we need to care about them.
Right now, in pro football, there is strong statistical evidence that insists teams should punt less on fourth down (even if it's fourth-and-4 and they're at midfield). Some of the logic behind this theory is irrefutable and some is harder to accept.[*2] But if you're one who believes that this axiom must be embraced for its mathematical veracity, it probably means the reason you're watching football is because you really care about the outcome. That's why you're watching the game. It means you believe offensive and defensive coordinators should make all their decisions based on rational probability, almost like they're simulating the game on a computer (and if they make these same rational decisions 10,000 times, they will succeed more often than they fail, which should be the ultimate goal). It means you believe that the most important thing about a football game is who wins and who loses, which is fine. Except that it makes the whole endeavor vaguely pointless and a little sad. For sports to matter at all, they have to matter more than that; they have to offer more cultural weight than merely deciding if Team A is better than Team B. If they don't, we're collectively making a terrible investment of our time, money, and emotion.
I happen to be very passionate about football and get tons of enjoyment and entertainment from it. That being said kicking a FG when it's 4th and goal at the 2 yard line at any point other than to tie the game or go ahead when there is virtually no time on the clock is LOL bad. You can be entertained and love the sport but still want to see it played optimally. And sorry to break it to you , winning matters. What kind of pussification of america BS is this guy spewing? smmfh.
Quote:
[*2]
I like when teams go for it on fourth down, and I support any reasoning for doing so. I believe it's (probably) a winning strategy. But there's something about the overwhelming mathematical logic of going for it on fourth-and-4 at midfield that doesn't seem complete to me. I'm assuming someone in the comments will explain to me why I'm wrong about this (and I won't disagree if you do), but — as of yet — no one has adequately convinced me of why my counterargument is flawed. Here's my confusion: The reasoning behind going for it on fourth down is built on the base rate on success, which can be calculated here. I do not doubt these calculations. However, isn't part of the reason the numbers suggest going for it on fourth down at least partially because almost no one regularly does so? Statistics aren't predictive; they can only show us what happened in the past. So if going for it on fourth-and-4 at midfield is still a relative rarity, isn't the available data for its rate of success questionable? And isn't it buoyed by the specific situations in which it occurs? I mean, what kind of team tends to go for it on fourth-and-4 from midfield? It generally seems like it's teams who are desperate (and sometimes facing a prevent defense) or teams who feel confident that they have the personnel and the play-calling acumen to succeed (most notably the Patriots). But let's say every team started doing this, all the time (which appears to be what the stat-heads want). Won't the base rate drastically change in potentially unexpected ways? Or let's say only three NFL teams suddenly decide they're going to apply this theory wholesale, but those three teams are the Browns, the Chiefs, and the Jaguars. Wouldn't this wreck the metric? Or would it somehow prove it? Why do I find myself suspecting that — if absolutely everyone started going for it on fourth down — advanced statisticians would respond by telling teams they should consider punting?
He's getting bogged down with what down it is. It has nothing to do with success of people in the past trying to go for it on 4th down it's all about the distance you have to cover and what part of the field you are on. It's the percent chance you are to pick up x amount of yards in one play that you are looking at not what the success rate of attempts in the past on 4th down and x amount of yards from the same spot on the field.