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Sports Media Discussion (RIP ESPN) Sports Media Discussion (RIP ESPN)

12-01-2012 , 03:19 PM
Loved the podcast w/ Nate Silver. He can do no wrong, really. Yes, his mannerisms/speech are annoying, but content-wise he's untouchable
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12-01-2012 , 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by El Rata
Obama was first, Bob Voulgaris was second, Nate was third.
Don't forget Al Michaels
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12-03-2012 , 08:34 AM
silver punctuated almost everything he said with "right?", seems like such a math guy thing. i've seen that same quirk from various other nerds / hedge fund / quant types. was a really good podcast though, silver had something pretty interesting to say about pretty much every topic covered
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12-04-2012 , 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by mcb33f
silver punctuated almost everything he said with "right?", seems like such a math guy thing. i've seen that same quirk from various other nerds / hedge fund / quant types.
It's what people who don't speak for a living do.
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12-04-2012 , 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by El Rata
Obama was first, Bob Voulgaris was second, Nate was third.
actually simmons was 1st.
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12-04-2012 , 10:18 PM
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Originally Posted by STA654
first 2p2er to make it on the BS report.

WHO WILL BE #2?
Down Goes Brown maybe? he's a contributor on Grantland...

or more likely, some poker player?
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12-05-2012 , 10:50 AM
thoughts on BS (wow just realized double meaning of BS report) as the DN of sports-writing? negreanus said a few times that he views himself as a bridge between "old school" and "new school", but im pretty sure most online poker players completely roll their eyes at this sentiment.

simmons brings in these quant guys, but i cringe at some of his questions/comments during his interviews (and i dont really know much about sports quant, just common sense stuff). think he should just stick to ewing theory/tyson zone/"chris paul is doing chris paul things", and let jacoby or someone else from grantland (zach lowe?) do the sabermetrics interviews
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12-05-2012 , 11:14 AM
Simmons is doing more for analytics in sports as a sportswriter than anyone else.

Even if he doesn't grasp everything or says some dumb stuff he is still putting these guys on a mic in front of a HUGE audience.
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12-05-2012 , 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by vinivici9586
thoughts on BS (wow just realized double meaning of BS report) as the DN of sports-writing? negreanus said a few times that he views himself as a bridge between "old school" and "new school", but im pretty sure most online poker players completely roll their eyes at this sentiment.

simmons brings in these quant guys, but i cringe at some of his questions/comments during his interviews (and i dont really know much about sports quant, just common sense stuff). think he should just stick to ewing theory/tyson zone/"chris paul is doing chris paul things", and let jacoby or someone else from grantland (zach lowe?) do the sabermetrics interviews
I completely disagree.

If your goal is to reach out to the general public and expose them to advanced stats, the worst way to accomplish that is by putting two sabremetric guys on there and let them go back and forth. You need the casual fan in there trying to explain things or not getting things in the right context.
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12-05-2012 , 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Franchise 60
Simmons is doing more for analytics in sports as a sportswriter than anyone else.

Even if he doesn't grasp everything or says some dumb stuff he is still putting these guys on a mic in front of a HUGE audience.
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Originally Posted by ZBTHorton
I completely disagree.

If your goal is to reach out to the general public and expose them to advanced stats, the worst way to accomplish that is by putting two sabremetric guys on there and let them go back and forth. You need the casual fan in there trying to explain things or not getting things in the right context.
Agree with both of these things.

I think the point he's making is that it's just Lol to hear him & Jack-O make fun of BAPIP while talking clutchness one week & then turn around and say to Silver "ya know there were a lot of blowhards who questioned you and Billy Beane" the next.

But yah whatever, gotta start somewhere.
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12-05-2012 , 11:54 AM
I would bet Simmons knows way more about advanced stats than he lets on, he just chooses to not always use it because it would alienate his fan base.
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12-05-2012 , 01:05 PM
He might, I think he knows enough to be dangerous but still not enough to satisfy anyone with a strong interest in analytics.

I just don't think Simmons is very smart. I saw him talk at the MIT conference last year, nearly ruined it for me.
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12-05-2012 , 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Biesterfield
He might, I think he knows enough to be dangerous but still not enough to satisfy anyone with a strong interest in analytics.

I just don't think Simmons is very smart. I saw him talk at the MIT conference last year, nearly ruined it for me.
I wish I could be not very smart like him.
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12-05-2012 , 01:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Franchise 60
Simmons is doing more for analytics in sports as a sportswriter than anyone else.

Even if he doesn't grasp everything or says some dumb stuff he is still putting these guys on a mic in front of a HUGE audience.
Moneyball made $100 million in box office. David Cone talks about WAR and BABIP on Yankees broadcasts. Let's not pretend like analytics in sports are some totally underground thing.

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Originally Posted by ZBTHorton
I would bet Simmons knows way more about advanced stats than he lets on, he just chooses to not always use it because it would alienate his fan base.
I doubt this. One thing people forget about most advanced stats is that they presuppose probabalistic thinking, which many people, even really smart people, are not capable of.
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12-05-2012 , 02:00 PM
Simmons still clings to his ******ed theories (see Ewing Theory) over actual statistical data.

He wants to make something up and be right about it. I get it.
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12-05-2012 , 02:08 PM
i was just disappointed w/ the voulgaris and silver cast. i sort of knew most of the things they talked about before going into it.

i guess a big part of that could just be the fact that bob and nate are only willing to give off so much information
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12-05-2012 , 02:20 PM
The latest podcast with Lombardi was difficult to listen to. Constant interruptions followed by awkward pauses with neither knowing who to talk (it was usually caused by Simmons).
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12-05-2012 , 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Triumph36
Moneyball made $100 million in box office. David Cone talks about WAR and BABIP on Yankees broadcasts. Let's not pretend like analytics in sports are some totally underground thing.
I didn't say it was underground. It isn't mainstream because Brad Pitt made a movie that was successful though.

Also, Miggy Cabrera.
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12-05-2012 , 03:09 PM
Did anyone see the Klosterman article on Grantland today?

This chunk of it definitely made me say "wtf are you talking about?"

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Perhaps you think this is an imaginary problem. Perhaps you say, "Just don't worry about it and the problem will disappear." Maybe so. But the conflict keeps coming up in weird ways. The most consistent trouble spot involves the rise of advanced statistics, and specifically how much we need to care about them.

Right now, in pro football, there is strong statistical evidence that insists teams should punt less on fourth down (even if it's fourth-and-4 and they're at midfield). Some of the logic behind this theory is irrefutable and some is harder to accept.[*2] But if you're one who believes that this axiom must be embraced for its mathematical veracity, it probably means the reason you're watching football is because you really care about the outcome. That's why you're watching the game. It means you believe offensive and defensive coordinators should make all their decisions based on rational probability, almost like they're simulating the game on a computer (and if they make these same rational decisions 10,000 times, they will succeed more often than they fail, which should be the ultimate goal). It means you believe that the most important thing about a football game is who wins and who loses, which is fine. Except that it makes the whole endeavor vaguely pointless and a little sad. For sports to matter at all, they have to matter more than that; they have to offer more cultural weight than merely deciding if Team A is better than Team B. If they don't, we're collectively making a terrible investment of our time, money, and emotion.
I happen to be very passionate about football and get tons of enjoyment and entertainment from it. That being said kicking a FG when it's 4th and goal at the 2 yard line at any point other than to tie the game or go ahead when there is virtually no time on the clock is LOL bad. You can be entertained and love the sport but still want to see it played optimally. And sorry to break it to you , winning matters. What kind of pussification of america BS is this guy spewing? smmfh.

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[*2]
I like when teams go for it on fourth down, and I support any reasoning for doing so. I believe it's (probably) a winning strategy. But there's something about the overwhelming mathematical logic of going for it on fourth-and-4 at midfield that doesn't seem complete to me. I'm assuming someone in the comments will explain to me why I'm wrong about this (and I won't disagree if you do), but — as of yet — no one has adequately convinced me of why my counterargument is flawed. Here's my confusion: The reasoning behind going for it on fourth down is built on the base rate on success, which can be calculated here. I do not doubt these calculations. However, isn't part of the reason the numbers suggest going for it on fourth down at least partially because almost no one regularly does so? Statistics aren't predictive; they can only show us what happened in the past. So if going for it on fourth-and-4 at midfield is still a relative rarity, isn't the available data for its rate of success questionable? And isn't it buoyed by the specific situations in which it occurs? I mean, what kind of team tends to go for it on fourth-and-4 from midfield? It generally seems like it's teams who are desperate (and sometimes facing a prevent defense) or teams who feel confident that they have the personnel and the play-calling acumen to succeed (most notably the Patriots). But let's say every team started doing this, all the time (which appears to be what the stat-heads want). Won't the base rate drastically change in potentially unexpected ways? Or let's say only three NFL teams suddenly decide they're going to apply this theory wholesale, but those three teams are the Browns, the Chiefs, and the Jaguars. Wouldn't this wreck the metric? Or would it somehow prove it? Why do I find myself suspecting that — if absolutely everyone started going for it on fourth down — advanced statisticians would respond by telling teams they should consider punting?
He's getting bogged down with what down it is. It has nothing to do with success of people in the past trying to go for it on 4th down it's all about the distance you have to cover and what part of the field you are on. It's the percent chance you are to pick up x amount of yards in one play that you are looking at not what the success rate of attempts in the past on 4th down and x amount of yards from the same spot on the field.
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12-05-2012 , 04:41 PM
Yah I imagine there's enough of a sample size of 3rd&4's from midfield in the history of football to guess a reasonably accurate success rate.
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12-05-2012 , 05:32 PM
I believe his argument, although weakly made, is that once you abandon the notion that coaches should go by their gut, you've lost something essential about sports. There's no question that if SE were around during some of the greatest sporting events of all time that the forest would be missed through the trees.
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12-05-2012 , 07:31 PM
Just finished the Nate Silver podcast. I really liked it. Simmons jumps around a lot covering a wide range of topics from politics to football to baseball, and I thought Silver did a real good job of keeping up and saying interesting things.

i do not follow politics, read newspapers, and of all the major sports baseball is the one I follow least so i do not really know who Nate Silver is or what he did that was so significant (from the podcast I guess he does a column for one of the New York newspapers and predicted Obama would win, and he also made some sort of fantasy baseball model?). I kinda wish they had spelled out his bio more for those of us who don't know his background at all.

Also, from all the poker talk I am guessing this is the old 2+2 user Nate the Great (this is not my first SN, I have been around for awhile), who I remember used to do a lot of baseball modelling stuff.
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12-06-2012 , 01:12 AM
Just buy Nate Silver's book and read it. Everyone itt, right now. It's for my money the best book in the Freakonomics/Gladwell vein and it is catnip for the 2p2 demo.
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12-06-2012 , 01:15 AM
It's good, right?
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12-06-2012 , 01:44 AM
Yeah I'm like 90% through with it. Def recommend.
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