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Old 05-09-2011, 06:24 PM   #10776
Phildo
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Originally Posted by kyleb View Post
I've read Sill's paper on RAPM when I was thinking about submitting an article to the JQAS. It sounds like it significantly reduces the standard error of estimating someone's true talent in a given discipline. So it sounds like Bobbo's position is reasonable.
fair enough.

i still think his statement "there is no such thing as a tiny sample of rapm" might be a tad hyperbolic. it may be smaller than 900 minutes but i'm pretty sure it exists.
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Old 05-09-2011, 06:26 PM   #10777
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There is no such thing as a tiny sample of RAPM though. The thing is it does mean a lot.

I don't want people to misinterpret this, but about ridge regression in general: (RAPM) it's not my job to explain higher level math to people. Some people understand it. if you don't, and you make an effort to learn, kudos. But if you don't get it, arguing against it is very ignorant, since it's important to understand what you're actually arguing.

Basically, if you want to say it's a small sample, maybe learn about ridge regression first, since it pretty much addresses those concerns.
Not helping your case.

Edit: If you can't explain in reasonably educated layman's terms why this metric is better than others AND why you place so much faith in it, you've given us not much more to go on than "secret stats". It's not that you're right or wrong, it's that we have no way of evaluating the claim.

Edit Edit: and to the limited extent Epi has a valid point here, it's that saying essentially that "Asik top 10 defensive player, not my fault you can't understand why" is functionally the same as trolling.

Last edited by sethypooh21; 05-09-2011 at 06:31 PM.
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Old 05-09-2011, 06:27 PM   #10778
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The contention that we can confidently call a rookie NBA player with 12mpg at "worst" a top-10 defensive player in the league strikes me as absurd.

Last edited by ClarkNasty; 05-09-2011 at 06:28 PM. Reason: I mean, maybe I'm just totally missing the boat here, but I'm not willing to hit the I Believe button.
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Old 05-09-2011, 06:40 PM   #10779
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Boobotarding at it's finest
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:00 PM   #10780
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Originally Posted by sethypooh21 View Post
Not helping your case.

Edit: If you can't explain in reasonably educated layman's terms why this metric is better than others AND why you place so much faith in it, you've given us not much more to go on than "secret stats". It's not that you're right or wrong, it's that we have no way of evaluating the claim.

Edit Edit: and to the limited extent Epi has a valid point here, it's that saying essentially that "Asik top 10 defensive player, not my fault you can't understand why" is functionally the same as trolling.
otoh i will say that, as a guy who is not particularly interested in basketball or basketball statistics, i was still able to find out that rapm is probably at the very least a much better metric than apm in said 15 minutes.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:04 PM   #10781
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I haven't been reading the playoff threads because I have been too busy watching people golf, but I the regular season hockey thread was probably my favorite to participate/read, especially if you decide to ignore goofyballer liveblogging DVRed games
the NHL offseason thread going right now has been really good as well
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:05 PM   #10782
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otoh i will say that, as a guy who is not particularly interested in basketball or basketball statistics, i was still able to find out that rapm is probably at the very least a much better metric than apm in said 15 minutes.
Fair point, but if you are going to use an advanced stat based on upper level math you shouldn't be surprised when someone asks you to explain it, especially when its being used to argue what appears to be an absurd point.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:08 PM   #10783
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I am not in the majority when it comes to these things, but if someone said "such and such metric means this, go figure it out," I would gladly do that in order to contribute to the discussion at hand rather than say something like "why don't YOU explain it you big dick cheese." Chances are good a simple Google search will uncover what you need to know, and if you can't find it then, you should then ask questions.

But again I understand such thinking is generally not accepted as reasonable for sports discussions on this site.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:10 PM   #10784
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Fair point, but if you are going to use an advanced stat based on upper level math you shouldn't be surprised when someone asks you to explain it, especially when its being used to argue what appears to be an absurd point.
yeah that's true. i have spent a good number of posts explaining (or attempting to explain) advanced metrics in mlb threads.

imo if you're going to use advanced metrics in arguments with people you know may not understand them you should try to explain them, and failing that at least link to a better explanation.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:12 PM   #10785
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big lol at the idea that anything APM-related is "upper-level math".
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:14 PM   #10786
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big lol at the idea that anything APM-related is "upper-level math".
To Jetto, it is.

(The long form of this post is to show that your average poster here understands VPIP/PFR/WTSD/W$SD but lols at the concept of RAPM or WAR; a cognitive dissonance indeed. Counterpoint: People prefer to be casualfan.jpg about sports but not about poker.)
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:16 PM   #10787
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would an FAQ about advanced stats work? i've been asked by people lately about advanced NHL stats, maybe a catch-all FAQ would work for the five major sports on SE?
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:17 PM   #10788
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Yeah once I get over my initial hatred of academic papers in pdf form (leftover scarring from college) it's really not that hard at all to understand.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:19 PM   #10789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kbfc View Post
big lol at the idea that anything APM-related is "upper-level math".
hey as long as you're here, could you let us know how valuable a 1000 minute sample of defensive rapm is iyo?
Quote:
Originally Posted by NozeCandy View Post
Yeah once I get over my initial hatred of academic papers in pdf form (leftover scarring from college) it's really not that hard at all to understand.
anyone with a hatred of academic papers should probably take a look at some of these links:

http://praiseball.wordpress.com/burn-baums/

cliff notes: phil birnbaum really enjoys ****ting on sloppy papers by academics about sports.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:20 PM   #10790
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kbfc View Post
big lol at the idea that anything APM-related is "upper-level math".
I've never looked at it or rapm, primarily because I am just not interested in it one way or the other, I just based it off bobbos post. If its not upper level math, then it should be easy to explain.


I had never heard if ridge regression until today. Is that not considered upper level stats?
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:29 PM   #10791
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Originally Posted by Phildo View Post
hey as long as you're here, could you let us know how valuable a 1000 minute sample of defensive rapm is iyo?
I'm about to head out. I can't really quantify this, but I'll say, "not very much, but better than nothing."

If you're trying to hint at Asik, then I'll just say that I have other reasons to believe he's pretty damn good on defense (including eye-test), but I'd have to see him do it in starters minutes before he made a top-10 list.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:32 PM   #10792
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Originally Posted by kyleb View Post
I am not in the majority when it comes to these things, but if someone said "such and such metric means this, go figure it out," I would gladly do that in order to contribute to the discussion at hand rather than say something like "why don't YOU explain it you big dick cheese." Chances are good a simple Google search will uncover what you need to know, and if you can't find it then, you should then ask questions.

But again I understand such thinking is generally not accepted as reasonable for sports discussions on this site.
I'm not asking him to give chapter and verse, but a quick paragraph or two about how this stat is different and why it's better, perhaps with a link to more detailed explanations should I so desire, isn't too much to ask. And if it's not super high level math, it should be that much easier to explain in simple terms.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:33 PM   #10793
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Kyle,

Boobo is like an agame/thremp hybrid.

He is no Kyleb
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:38 PM   #10794
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I linked to the paper the stat creator wrote. It's 6 pages, nothing crazy.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:41 PM   #10795
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I linked to the paper the stat creator wrote. It's 6 pages, nothing crazy.
I didn't take a look at, maybe won't at all, but basically explaining it and then linking to a paper seems pretty reasonable.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:41 PM   #10796
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Warning, contains remarks about body mass

Spoiler:
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:42 PM   #10797
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Originally Posted by kbfc View Post
I'm about to head out. I can't really quantify this, but I'll say, "not very much, but better than nothing."

If you're trying to hint at Asik, then I'll just say that I have other reasons to believe he's pretty damn good on defense (including eye-test), but I'd have to see him do it in starters minutes before he made a top-10 list.
hmm that sounds suspiciously reasonable

tyvm

edit: i am pronouncing rapm as "rape 'em"

anybody know if this is correct?
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:47 PM   #10798
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Warning, contains remarks about body mass

Spoiler:
Thayer, that's enough. Quoting **** that's ok to say on skype doesn't inoculate it from being a FAQ violation here.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:49 PM   #10799
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would an FAQ about advanced stats work? i've been asked by people lately about advanced NHL stats, maybe a catch-all FAQ would work for the five major sports on SE?
i think that this is a very good idea, if knowledgeable posters feel like contributing stuff from their areas of interest.
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Old 05-09-2011, 07:49 PM   #10800
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i don't really know what's going on here but it seems that epi is quite mad
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